Discussion Ada/'Lovelace'? Next gen Nvidia gaming architecture speculation

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Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,272
6,757
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Aren’t the AMD claims something like 3x navi21? If that is true ( which I personally doubt), AMD might have a significant performance lead this gen. I guess we will see.

Also, I knew those absurdly high TDP numbers weren’t going to hold. They are still too high, however. Hopefully both NVIDIA and AMD focus on lowering both TDP and power consumption moving forward. Energy is expensive, and renewable energy is limited. Climate change is a thing. yada yada.

Anyways, not trying to be political. My current GPU doubles as a space heater when gaming. If they keep inching up, next gen cards will be unbearable, not to mention PSU requirements. Not to mention many homes in the US only have 15 amp circuits. 🙃
I no longer believe that N31, assuming it hits 2.5x 6900XT (N21), will have a big performance lead, if any, over AD102 simply because there's another 20% in the tank for the 4090, which is apparently 2x 3090 so roughly 2x 6900XT, and they could unlock the full die with 600W to get to 2.2-2.3x 3090. Will it be efficient? No, but they will have a product that can at least tie N31 on benchmark comparisons. Mindshare = protected, and that's all JHH cares about.

Whether or not everyone can handle the high TDPs and heat output is another matter entirely, but Nvidia doesn't care if you buy it and can't handle it. It's all about maintaining the reputation of never losing the performance crown for them.
 

JasonLD

Senior member
Aug 22, 2017
486
447
136
I guess the claims of N31 being uber powerful and Nvidia had to push AD102 over 600W just to match N31 can be thrown out entirely. (Not that it was believable from the beginning anyways)

I stick with a prediction that both top-end cards from Nvidia and AMD will be lucky to have 100% performance improvements from current highest ends at 4k and lower on 1440p/1080p
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,743
5,374
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I guess the claims of N31 being uber powerful and Nvidia had to push AD102 over 600W just to match N31 can be thrown out entirely. (Not that it was believable from the beginning anyways)

The rumor was 2.5x performance. This so called 4090 is "only" 2x. The 600 W monster is presumably the 4090 Ti.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
7,961
6,312
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The rumors for the flagship AMD card had a pretty big reduction in shader count. I almost wonder if there was some confusion over a CDNA part that has more raw compute than the consumer products.

I think the bigger worry for AMD would be the midrange 103 and 104 dies hitting the market sooner as well. AMD was rumored to be leading with Navi 33 which would have had its own niche carved out if it launched at the same time as the flagship Nvidia cards, but it may have a harder time going up against 5nm Lovelace cards.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
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My assumption right now is ~80% improvement or so across the board.
 

JasonLD

Senior member
Aug 22, 2017
486
447
136
The rumor was 2.5x performance. This so called 4090 is "only" 2x. The 600 W monster is presumably the 4090 Ti.

You can also throw 2.5x performance out the window as well. AMD never claimed that anyways.
 

leoneazzurro

Senior member
Jul 26, 2016
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The rumors for the flagship AMD card had a pretty big reduction in shader count. I almost wonder if there was some confusion over a CDNA part that has more raw compute than the consumer products.

Yeah but latest "rumors" also were about clock being higher, so it ended in the same teraflops range as the old leak.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
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That's 4090 vs 3090? Raster only? No RT or DLSS 3.0?

Just raster, but across the range, so also 4080 vs 3080, 4070 vs 3070, etc. I don't particularly care if they overclock some chips to the moon where the additional power consumption is huge, for relatively little gain. That's not real gains, just abuse of poor silicon that never hurt anyone.

Perhaps they'll surprise me, but simply based on the percentage that the node shrinks due to the new process and some modest improvements to the architecture, it seems more realistic.

If they add some extra RT hardware which results in a 2-2.5 speedup in an artificial DLSS benchmark that appeals to the strenghts of the improvements, then they can claim 'up to 2-2.5 times faster,' but then it's not going to be 2-2.5 times faster on the whole.
 
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Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,272
6,757
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The earlier theory was mid 90s TF. Now they are saying 75ish. That's still 3x the 6900 XT.
The TF projection fluctuated as rumors came in...
I think it was originally 75 TF with 15360 shaders at some reasonable clocks, then the rumor of 3 GHz came in and that bumped up the projection respectively, then it turned out to be 12288 shaders and the projection got revised yet again. But you're right: 75 TF is roughly 3x 6900XT.

For reference, 6900XT is 2x 5700XT but the TF improvement is 2.36x (23 TF vs 9.75 TF), or an "efficiency" of ~85%. We probably see an even lower efficiency with higher TF so 2.5x seems reasonable. We'll see how much extra TF-to-fps efficiency AMD can claw back with an updated architecture.
 
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JasonLD

Senior member
Aug 22, 2017
486
447
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For reference, 6900XT is 2x 5700XT but the TF improvement is 2.36x (23 TF vs 9.75 TF), or an "efficiency" of ~85%. We probably see an even lower efficiency with higher TF so 2.5x seems reasonable. We'll see how much extra TF-to-fps efficiency AMD can claw back with an updated architecture.

Or could be just inflated FP32 TFlops number a.k.a. Nvidia style and all the performance predictions goes out the window. Especially when N31 no longer seems like monster GPU with 800mm2 worth of silicon with just one CCD according to the rumors.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,636
3,095
136
I'm just hoping gamers at least get an RTX 4030 for $600 at GTX 1060 levels of performance. The market needs a break. Truthful statements aside, if the 4000 series performs way better than 3000 series and Nvidia uses that to justify a linear price increase with performance, then, um, who's buying these in large enough volumes to matter? I have a feeling the 4070 will be like a 3090 or something and cost about as much as an open-box discounted 3090.
 
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Timmah!

Golden Member
Jul 24, 2010
1,436
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Or could be just inflated FP32 TFlops number a.k.a. Nvidia style and all the performance predictions goes out the window. Especially when N31 no longer seems like monster GPU with 800mm2 worth of silicon with just one CCD according to the rumors.

Nvidias numbers werent completely "inflated". At certain workloads 3090 was truly twice as fast as 2080Ti, while having 2x TFlops.
 
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maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,783
4,759
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Just raster, but across the range, so also 4080 vs 3080, 4070 vs 3070, etc. I don't particularly care if they overclock some chips to the moon where the additional power consumption is huge, for relatively little gain. That's not real gains, just abuse of poor silicon that never hurt anyone.

Perhaps they'll surprise me, but simply based on the percentage that the node shrinks due to the new process and some modest improvements to the architecture, it seems more realistic.

If they add some extra RT hardware which results in a 2-2.5 speedup in an artificial DLSS benchmark that appeals to the strenghts of the improvements, then they can claim 'up to 2-2.5 times faster,' but then it's not going to be 2-2.5 times faster on the whole.
I thought that this improvement only applies to top tier. The shader increase in lower tiers is supposed to be more moderate. Win the crown at all costs but lesser chips have to sell in reasonable quantities.

Besides the crypto boom, so many other factors added to the recent high price "acceptance". Free gov money, inability to physically travel and socialize, etc. It's different now, and with entrenched rising inflation, disposable income is going to fall.

If these companies, all of them, think that tomorrow will be like yesterday, pricing wise, then they are fools and are going to be shocked later this year.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,743
5,374
136
I thought that this improvement only applies to top tier. The shader increase in lower tiers is supposed to be more moderate. Win the crown at all costs but lesser chips have to sell in reasonable quantities.

That's correct but AD106/AD107 isn't getting an RDNA3 competitor either.
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
1,451
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I thought that this improvement only applies to top tier. The shader increase in lower tiers is supposed to be more moderate. Win the crown at all costs but lesser chips have to sell in reasonable quantities.

It's not a true generational improvement if they brute force it and it thus doesn't work for 'normal' cards.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
7,961
6,312
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Yeah but latest "rumors" also were about clock being higher, so it ended in the same teraflops range as the old leak.

Higher clock rates to achieve the same performance means more power draw to get there. I didn't particularly like Nvidia's move to 500W+ cards and I wouldn't like to see AMD follow suit either.

Any cost you might save on the smaller die just go into the extra hardware to power and cool the card to achieve the same level of performance.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,272
6,757
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Frenetic Pony

Senior member
May 1, 2012
218
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Biiiig cooler, but air cooler, which isn't surprising. So <500 watts. Manufacturers don't like installing AIO coolers themselves, they've a small tendency to leak, and if they do and ruin someone's whole setup that's on them. Thus AIO coolers tend to be "install yourself so it's on you", or super expensive one offs where you can guarantee qc like with the 6900LC.

Whatever, it'll cost like $2k+ and run quite a bit faster than a 3090 and that'll be cool for enough for a decent number of people. I wonder what the cheaper cards will cost. More people will be interested in the 4070, probably around a 3080 in performance and $500ish in price.
 
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