Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

Tigerick · Aug 22, 2022

As Hot Chips 34 starting this week, Intel will unveil technical information of upcoming Meteor Lake (MTL) and Arrow Lake (ARL), new generation platform after Raptor Lake. Both MTL and ARL represent new direction which Intel will move to multiple chiplets and combine as one SoC platform.

MTL also represents new compute tile that based on Intel 4 process which is based on EUV lithography, a first from Intel. Intel expects to ship MTL mobile SoC in 2023.

ARL will come after MTL so Intel should be shipping it in 2024, that is what Intel roadmap is telling us. ARL compute tile will be manufactured by Intel 20A process, a first from Intel to use GAA transistors called RibbonFET.

Comparison of upcoming Intel's U-series CPU: Core Ultra 100U, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

Model	Code-Name	Date	TDP	Node	Tiles	Main Tile	CPU	LP E-Core	LLC	GPU	Xe-cores
Core Ultra 100U	Meteor Lake	Q4 2023	15 - 57 W	Intel 4 + N5 + N6	4	tCPU	2P + 8E	2	12 MB	Intel Graphics	4
?	Lunar Lake	Q4 2024	17 - 30 W	N3B + N6	2	CPU + GPU & IMC	4P + 4E	0	8 MB	Arc	8
?	Panther Lake	Q1 2026 ?	?	Intel 18A + N3E	3	CPU + MC	4P + 8E	4	?	Arc	12

Comparison of die size of Each Tile of Meteor Lake, Arrow Lake, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

	Meteor Lake	Arrow Lake (20A)	Arrow Lake (N3B)	Arrow Lake Refresh (N3B)	Lunar Lake	Panther Lake
Platform	Mobile H/U Only	Desktop Only	Desktop & Mobile H&HX	Desktop Only	Mobile U Only	Mobile H
Process Node	Intel 4	Intel 20A	TSMC N3B	TSMC N3B	TSMC N3B	Intel 18A
Date	Q4 2023	Q1 2025 ?	Desktop-Q4-2024 H&HX-Q1-2025	Q4 2025 ?	Q4 2024	Q1 2026 ?
Full Die	6P + 8P	6P + 8E ?	8P + 16E	8P + 32E	4P + 4E	4P + 8E
LLC	24 MB	24 MB ?	36 MB ?	?	8 MB	?
tCPU	66.48
tGPU	44.45
SoC	96.77
IOE	44.45
Total	252.15

Intel Core Ultra 100 - Meteor Lake

As mentioned by Tomshardware, TSMC will manufacture the I/O, SoC, and GPU tiles. That means Intel will manufacture only the CPU and Foveros tiles. (Notably, Intel calls the I/O tile an 'I/O Expander,' hence the IOE moniker.)

coercitiv · Dec 12, 2022

ondma said:
I pulled up the graphs from the HUB site itself and it looks like 5800x3D vs 7600x ranges from 15% faster to 35% slower. So the total variance is about 50%. That seems like "all over the place" to me.

If you think 5800X3D vs 7600X with a variance of 50% is "all over the place", what's your opinion on 13600K vs 7600X with a variance of 50%? Who's all over the place there, the 13600K or the 7600X?

Harry_Wild · Dec 12, 2022

Heard rumors of the next generation Intel CPU will not happen for 2023-24 but will be delayed a full year due to sluggish demand outlook.

ondma · Dec 12, 2022

Harry_Wild said:
Heard rumors of the next generation Intel CPU will not happen for 2023-24 but will be delayed a full year due to sluggish demand outlook.

Source? Anything more specific? Desktop or mobile or both? If Zen 5 comes out in 2024, Intel will fall way behind without meteor lake/arrow lake to compete.
I cant imagine they would deliberately delay launches simply due to low demand. That is kind of like shooting yourself in the foot. Sticking with an inferior product in a time of low demand seems like a recipe for disaster. If Meteor Lake is in fact delayed to 2025 Intel is in big trouble.

DrMrLordX · Dec 12, 2022

ondma said:
If Zen 5 comes out in 2024, Intel will fall way behind without meteor lake/arrow lake to compete.

Most of Zen5's prospects are governed by what Intel will launch in the datacentre. Granite Rapids, etc.

Hulk · Dec 12, 2022

coercitiv said:
If you think 5800X3D vs 7600X with a variance of 50% is "all over the place", what's your opinion on 13600K vs 7600X with a variance of 50%? Who's all over the place there, the 13600K or the 7600X?

"All over the place" is more expected within an architecture rather than between them.

nicalandia · Dec 13, 2022

News coming in 3 days

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602820778357137408

Hitman928 · Dec 13, 2022

nicalandia said:
News coming in 3 days
View attachment 72817

https://twitter.com/x/status/1602820778357137408

Interesting. Timing seems a bit ominous but maybe I’m just being pessimistic.

Markfw · Dec 13, 2022

Hitman928 said:
Interesting. Timing seems a bit ominous but maybe I’m just being pessimistic.

I agree. It sounds like bad news.

Exist50 · Dec 13, 2022

Hitman928 said:
Interesting. Timing seems a bit ominous but maybe I’m just being pessimistic.

...why?

jpiniero · Dec 13, 2022

Exist50 said:
...why?

Friday's a good day to dump bad news?

Exist50 · Dec 13, 2022

jpiniero said:
Friday's a good day to dump bad news?

Fair enough, but this sounds more future-focused. Obviously 2023 is going to be a dumpster fire for client sales, but that's hardly news to anyone who's been keeping tabs. I think a roadmap will be far more interesting, but it would be very boring if they don't cover till 2024.

Hitman928 · Dec 13, 2022

Exist50 said:
...why?

Being given short notice and it being scheduled for a Friday right before the holidays makes it seem like they don't want a lot of views on whatever it is they plan to present. Additionally, on the financial side (TAM and growth drivers), they had their quarterly earnings call not that long ago and presented at a financial analyst day even more recently. Their CFO also said at that conference that they didn't have clear visibility into the market in the near future (I don't remember his exact words).

On the roadmap side, again we have their recent calls and presentations with no indications of roadmap changes or additions. Also, we have CES coming in just a few weeks. I would think that would be the place to reveal a really strong roadmap.

It just seems like Intel is gearing everyone up for an expectations adjustment to the negative side and are hoping to kind of bury the news in between higher profile appearances right before the holidays. Again, I could be completely off on this and am not claiming any kind of prophetic insight here. It just doesn't seem to me like something you would do this way at this time if you had really good things to share and isn't something you would do at all if you had nothing new. I'll gladly accept that I was a terrible prognosticator if it ends up being good news.

Exist50 · Dec 13, 2022

Hitman928 said:
Being given short notice and it being scheduled for a Friday right before the holidays makes it seem like they don't want a lot of views on whatever it is they plan to present

They announced this webinar about a week ago now. Is that shorter than typical notice for a smaller-scale event? Honest question. I don't really track these things.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-to-disclose-client-pc-roadmap-next-week

Hitman928 said:
On the roadmap side, again we have their recent calls and presentations with no indications of roadmap changes or additions. Also, we have CES coming in just a few weeks. I would think that would be the place to reveal a really strong roadmap.

They may not have announced changes to their roadmap, but they haven't said much about it either. We're practically in 2023, so saying a product is launching sometime between now and a year from now isn't very informative. They should be able to pin MTL down to a quarter by now, at least in theory.

Also, if anything, I think CES is a terrible time to talk about roadmaps. Companies want to hype up the products they have on shelves either then or imminently. Saying "Our super special next gen chips are XX months away!" is a good way to Osborne effect oneself.

Like, I'm not going to say this definitely isn't bad news, but it sure seems like jumping the gun a bit. Like you said, they had their earnings call not too long ago, and statements outside of earnings tend to be rare and messaged differently. And it's client, so we know it's not another SPR delay or whatever.

witeken · Dec 14, 2022

Intel already gave their PC TAM update in October, and the PC roadmap (Meteor Lake, Arrow Lake) for 2023-2024 was disclosed at both Investor Meeting and HotChips.

Of course, Intel hasn't announced Raptor Lake Refresh yet, but if there were material delays Intel certainly wouldn't announce such stuff via a "webinar". Intel also just reaffirmed the process timeline at IEDM.

Joe NYC · Dec 14, 2022

Hulk said:
"All over the place" is more expected within an architecture rather than between them.

I am not sure why you find it so perplexing that a certain CPU feature benefits a certain subset of applications more and benefits different subset of applications less.

Games, as a subset of applications benefit from larger L3 the most.

BTW, if you look at Raptor Lake performance being very competitive, you can also look at its caches for one of the reasons:
13,000K L2 + L3 = 68 MB for

While 7700X L2 + L3 = 40 MB

Joe NYC · Dec 14, 2022

Hitman928 said:
Interesting. Timing seems a bit ominous but maybe I’m just being pessimistic.

Any news released on Friday after hours would likely be bad news.

But this is Friday morning, so it can go either way.

clemsyn · Dec 14, 2022

IMO, it will be a BAD news. Always been for Intel.

jpiniero · Dec 14, 2022

Exist50 said:
And it's client, so we know it's not another SPR delay or whatever.

Could certainly be a Meteor Lake delay though. Like Raptor Lake Refresh will be the 2024 mobile release.

DrMrLordX · Dec 14, 2022

jpiniero said:
Could certainly be a Meteor Lake delay though. Like Raptor Lake Refresh will be the 2024 mobile release.

Ew what? That would be awful. Meteor Lake is already delayed. Late Q4 2023/Q1 2024 is already bad.

dullard · Dec 14, 2022

nicalandia said:
News coming in 3 days

Yeah, Intel announced that 9 days ago. https://www.intel.com/content/www/u...tform-roadmap-investor-webinar.html#gs.kkz4nw

That is why I was asking (In the Raptor Lake Official thread) for a pause in the declarations of product launches/delays until we get that update. Posts such as this one from DrMrLordX that already declare a delay and timing just days before we get the official account are only intended to spread misinformation:

DrMrLordX said:
Ew what? That would be awful. Meteor Lake is already delayed. Late Q4 2023/Q1 2024 is already bad.

There certainly could be a delay. But declaring that a delay will happen now is just disingenuous.

Hitman928 · Dec 14, 2022

Exist50 said:
They announced this webinar about a week ago now. Is that shorter than typical notice for a smaller-scale event? Honest question. I don't really track these things.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-to-disclose-client-pc-roadmap-next-week

Not that I'm a financial guru or anything, but that seems much more typical than 3 days notice.

They may not have announced changes to their roadmap, but they haven't said much about it either. We're practically in 2023, so saying a product is launching sometime between now and a year from now isn't very informative. They should be able to pin MTL down to a quarter by now, at least in theory.

Also, if anything, I think CES is a terrible time to talk about roadmaps. Companies want to hype up the products they have on shelves either then or imminently. Saying "Our super special next gen chips are XX months away!" is a good way to Osborne effect oneself.

Fair enough, I was just assuming they would be talking about their products coming sooner than later, but if it is outlining a roadmap with a longer timeline, CES wouldn't make as much sense.

Hulk · Dec 14, 2022

Unfavorable political news is always buried on Friday evenings because the news cycle for the week generally ends on Friday and starts over on Monday. Plus there is a good chance something will happen over the weekend and further bury Friday news.

Doug S · Dec 14, 2022

Hulk said:
Unfavorable political news is always buried on Friday evenings because the news cycle for the week generally ends on Friday and starts over on Monday. Plus there is a good chance something will happen over the weekend and further bury Friday news.

I think that is an anachronism from back when most people got their news from newspapers and evening network broadcasts. In today's world with 24x7 news cycles and social media, some people might believe that rule of thumb about releasing "bad news" late Friday will reduce its impact, but I don't buy it. Not anymore.

It isn't even true for stock market effects these days since there is after hours trading, whereas back in the newspapers/Walter Cronkite days trading ended at 4pm Friday and traders had the whole weekend to digest news before Wall Street reopened Monday morning.

dullard · Dec 14, 2022

Doug S said:
I think that is an anachronism from back when most people got their news from newspapers and evening network broadcasts. In today's world with 24x7 news cycles and social media, some people might believe that rule of thumb about releasing "bad news" late Friday will reduce its impact, but I don't buy it. Not anymore.

People and companies still do try to bury bad news on busy news days. And if that is not a guarantee, then Friday evening is still frequently done. So, I am inclined to side with Hulk on that one. However, this webinar is not on a Friday evening, so I don't understand the point Hulk is trying to make.

Hulk · Dec 14, 2022

My point is that when bad news drops in the political arena it is gone on Friday for the reasons I stated above.

If it drops on Monday then all of the television and radio/podcast talk shows discuss it all week. If it drops on Friday they have to wait for their show on Monday while much of the drama cools off. Plus, as I wrote above there is a chance that other stories will pop up over the weekend.

I wasn't responding to the webinar but the fact that they appeared to be trying to bury by releasing on Friday. Someone else postulated that, not me. My only comment was that I've seen that trend many times over the last 40 years of watching and listening to the news as an adult.

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