Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

Page 86 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,149
2,727
106
They run fine assuming you are content to consume 1.5x the power and still have only 0.5x the throughput, so you ll be left for a same cloud service to buy 2x the racks and consume 3x the power to provide the same service as a single AMD based rack.

If that s what you call just fine, well, eventually, in the waiting of bankruptcy unless you have customers ready to pay rougly 2x the price of your competitors.
I think it is finally happening with Zen 4 generation (Genoa, Genoa-X, Bergamo) against underwhelming Sapphire Rapids, that has similar performance deficit.

But imagine Intel having such a disproportional market share before Ice Lake, without even having PCIe Gen 4.

Then Intel starts a new platform with Ice Lake, which finally got PCIe Gen 4 in 2021 (!!!). Still inferior to AMD Rome and Milan in ever aspect, and this inferior product achieves 75% market share. Starting its tenure way behind AMD and ending way behind AMD in performance but strong arming the OEMs to prevent them from ramping up volume of AMD chips.

Incidentally, AMD's best performing markets were the cloud providers, where the performance, TCO, performance / power the most directly affect the bottom line.

In enterprise, the market that is the most corrupt, Intel can sweep under the rug its horrific performance stats and inflict these products on clueless enterprises under the cover of darkness. And keep AMD out.
 
Last edited:
Reactions: Tlh97

dr1337

Senior member
May 25, 2020
358
606
136
It's just ramping.
They've been ramping for over a year while Turin currently sampling? That makes no sense bud, what are you talking about?

There's a lot of factors in the market right now but AMD is definitely still controlling prices to manage inventory. They're production limited to a degree, they wouldn't just leave obvious money on the table.
 
Reactions: Tlh97

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,269
6,751
136
What happened during Covid was that Intel's DC division got saved due to an overwhelming demand for processors such that even inferior products sold since AMD couldn't supply their superior Rome/Milan SKUs fast enough.

In a soft market, I would think that without excess demand outstripping supply, the customers who want the superior product can get their hands on it and not be relegated to settling for the inferior, but widely available product. One way this wouldn't be the case is if Intel intentionally offers their products with profit margins so low that it overcomes the performance or TCO advantage that EYPC enjoys.
 
Reactions: Tlh97

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,101
3,775
136
Do you understand that these companies have an accounting department, that gets their data from their engineers and run the numbers. They know the costs and their margins on services provided. They are professionals - no imbecilic.
They are professional imbeciles more accurately, they know that the costs are way higher but for some reason they are subsiding Intel...


What they came up with is something like 'these Intel servers are so cheap, we can buy them and use them for a while'. Also, AMD can't make enough CPUs to provide for every client in the world - so at some point they must buy Intel to keep the hamsters running - they will price accordingly. Demand is so great that people will pay. Heck, it's post Covid - everyone is paying more for just about everything anyway.

They have enough production capacity, their client CPUs deliveries tanked by 50% in a single year, that s as much free capacity, they even cut orders from TSMC recently.
And remember that they said there s ample capcity to produce desktop parts when they lauched Zen 4 with no possible shortage.
 
Reactions: Tlh97

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,149
2,727
106
Even AMD's EPYC CPU ASPs are down? Hmm, thought the market was picking up - guess that was a projection (and a bogus one).
Last 2 to 3 quarters of EPYC sales are flat to down in dollar terms. AMD had a plenty of spare capacity starting Q4 2022.

While Intel continues to out-ship AMD products in 3:1 ratio, shipping underwhelming Ice Lake. There is something very wrong with this picture.
 
Reactions: Tlh97

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,101
3,775
136
Last 2 to 3 quarters of EPYC sales are flat to down in dollar terms. AMD had a plenty of spare capacity starting Q4 2022.
I noticed that as well, i once said that Intel is selling DC CPUs well below costs and is compensating with client revenues, to better dupe people they stated a little loss in DC while they are bleeding by the bns in this market.

But even at those massacred prices that s still an horrendous deal since 2 racks are necessary to provide the same throughput as a single AMD one, their buyers are fooled because they think that current Intel is the same as the one ten years ago competitivly wise, they simply dont believe that AMD is that ahead even if you provide them the numbers, that s a case of corporate cognitive dissonance...
 
Reactions: Tlh97 and Joe NYC

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,149
2,727
106
They have enough production capacity, their client CPUs deliveries tanked by 50% in a single year, that s as much free capacity, they even cut orders from TSMC recently.
And remember that they said there s ample capcity to produce desktop parts when they lauched Zen 4 with no possible shortage.

Exactly. More like 66% down on client. So plentiful capacity for Milan chips. No constraints, enough supply to gain another 10% of market share in the last 9 months, but it did not happen.

The IT market place, IT professionals just kept buying Ice Lakes...

So this industry continues to be less than pristine, ethics-wise, invisible hand of the free market is not operating. Instead of Adam Smith's invisible hand, we have strong arming in the market place.
 
Reactions: Tlh97

adroc_thurston

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2023
2,803
4,117
96
That s not enough to compensate the losses in DC SKUs
They have pretty fat opinc so it really offsets low Xeon gross margin.
at most it s something like 0.5bn/quarter.
More.
No constraints, enough supply to gain another 10% of market share in the last 9 months, but it did not happen.
Milan costs money (AMD actually charges money for it).
The IT market place, IT professionals just kept buying Ice Lakes...
ICX Xeons are very cheap.
 
Reactions: Tlh97 and Joe NYC

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,783
7,995
136
They are professional imbeciles more accurately, they know that the costs are way higher but for some reason they are subsiding Intel...

The other way around I'd say. You think Amazon or Cloudflare, et al, really care to 'subsides' Intel?
They have enough production capacity, their client CPUs deliveries tanked by 50% in a single year, that s as much free capacity, they even cut orders from TSMC recently.
And remember that they said there s ample capcity to produce desktop parts when they lauched Zen 4 with no possible shortage.
I was wrong.
Last 2 to 3 quarters of EPYC sales are flat to down in dollar terms. AMD had a plenty of spare capacity starting Q4 2022.

While Intel continues to out-ship AMD products in 3:1 ratio, shipping underwhelming Ice Lake. There is something very wrong with this picture.
Again, I was wrong about sales and capacity. With the market being soft, the buy chain is just frozen right now. Once things pickup, I'd expect AMD to continue its upward market share gains. If that doesn't happen, then I'd start to wonder if something else was going on. The only way to eat an elephant is one bite at a time, and Intel was and still is that elephant - for now.
 
Reactions: Tlh97 and Joe NYC

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,149
2,727
106
Actually the thing that masks DCAI losses is Altera.
Record numbers from the guys there.
Yes, that is a good point.

AMD has the Xilinx in a separate division, and the Data Center division is aborbing the costs of the datacenter / AI Mi300 development, lowering some of its profits.

OTOH, Intel is hiding the datacenter losses with Altera profits.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,101
3,775
136
The other way around I'd say. You think Amazon or Cloudflare, et al, really care to 'subsides' Intel?

Would you buy for pro usage a 8C Rocket Lake instead of a 5950X ?
That s basically what those firms are doing, so get the conclusions you want.


Wrong, i was spot on, it s 2.1bn/year, that is the 0.5bn/Q i stated, and that include Altera as well as networking.

 
Last edited:
Reactions: Tlh97

adroc_thurston

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2023
2,803
4,117
96
AMD has the Xilinx in a separate division
DC Versals are under Data Center but they're not a big market.
Data Center division is aborbing the costs of the datacenter / AI Mi300 development, lowering some of its profits.
Yea, they gotta crank a lot of parts in the meantime.
MI400 alone is worth a lot.
As you've noticed, MI300 is already enough to make NV twitch and print .pptware launch-in-3Q announcements.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,149
2,727
106
That s not enough to compensate the losses in DC SKUs, Altera is meaningless compared to the DC CPU division, at most it s something like 0.5bn/quarter.

Also, Intel does not have to lower the prices, and sell at a loss in all Xeon segments. Only in the ones where AMD could gain share. There are still captive markets where Intel can charge close to the list prices.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,149
2,727
106
DC Versals are under Data Center but they're not a big market.

Yea, they gotta crank a lot of parts in the meantime.
MI400 alone is worth a lot.
As you've noticed, MI300 is already enough to make NV twitch and print .pptware launch-in-3Q announcements.

Is that going to be Zen 5? AMD should be getting back to closer to 1 year cadence than 2 year on CDNA.

With Mi300 platform established, the refinements should be coming out at faster pace.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,149
2,727
106
Yea.

7-8Q usually.

CDNA2 came quite quickly following CDNA1, but more like 7-8 quarters to CDNA 3. But, I think justified, considering a monumental changes from CDNA2 to 3.

MI400 is very very very very very different.

Vveerrryy interesting, can't wait for some leaks to start flowing.

BTW, MLID has, in my mind, earned enough credit with his Mi300 leak that he can be wrong about everything else for subsequent 2 years and still be one of the best leakers...

Also, Jim from AdoeredTV got a lot of the Mi300 stuff right.
 
Reactions: Tlh97

adroc_thurston

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2023
2,803
4,117
96
CDNA2 came quite quickly following CDNA1
MI200's were a simple, hacky way to win CORAL-2 bids (and they won more than that!).
BTW, MLID has, in my mind, earned enough credit with his Mi300 leak that he can be wrong about everything else for subsequent 2 years and still be one of the best leakers...
He's an idiot.
Also, Jim from AdoeredTV got a lot of the Mi300 stuff right.
Also an idiot.
 
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |