Discussion NV Re-Enter ARM PC market in 2025!

soresu · Mar 16, 2024

FlameTail said:
However, the unfortunate thing is that they are doing it just at the time Qualcomm seems to be finally getting their # together, with their Nuvia acquisition bearing fruit and the debut of the new Snapdragon X series.

Well as AMD could tell them having the best hardware doesn't matter for doodoo if you don't have the software to match it.

Between MS and QC there is more than enough oomph to promote WoA to all the app makers and game devs, but evidently they screwed the pooch on that despite securing exclusivity.

Even without a CPU to match Apple the platform is plenty enough to make a secure foundation for building games on, and if QC had put half the effort behind it that Apple have to get Mac app devs moving we would already be inundated with apps and games.

You see Android if something of a non starter for serious game devs because of how easily apps could be pirated, but Windows has a history of anti piracy/cheat software that need only be ported to get game devs interested.

soresu · Mar 16, 2024

FlameTail said:
Well, I can see how Microsoft would like to give Nvidia a leg up to enter the industry.

*They would like to get a return on their investment into WoA, for which quickly bulking out the hardware options to give customers more choice and a higher confidence in the long term stability of the platform for app devs.

After the publicity of MS's less than happy interactions with nVidia during the OG Xbox and XB360 years I would say that they are less than bothered about giving them a leg up for any reason that doesn't directly benefit their own objectives first.

soresu · Mar 16, 2024

Ghostsonplanets said:
s long as Nvidia provides a reasonable cheap SoC, that's good for me.

All I want is a clean SoC and reasonably priced.... 😁

FlameTail · Mar 16, 2024

One does not simply string "Nvidia" and "Reasonable Pricing" in the same sentence.

soresu · Mar 17, 2024

FlameTail said:
One does not simply string "Nvidia" and "Reasonable Pricing" in the same sentence.
View attachment 95467

It's a new market, so they are going to have to play nice with pricing for some time.

You can only set the prices you want when you have a pretty decent foothold in a market and serious brand recognition.

nVidia has brand recognition in PCs, but only with discrete graphics.

Their Tegra business has been automotive only (excepting oooold SHIELD/Switch TX1) for years now, and never really made the kind of headway that nVidia were looking for vs competitors in the Android space.

In fact TX1 was pretty much their last full system SoC in a consumer product, and that came out in 2015 originally - the Switch OLED 16nm SoC is just a shrink of it.

Also you missed the "reasonably priced" reference I was making 😭

NTMBK · Mar 17, 2024

soresu said:
It's a new market, so they are going to have to play nice with pricing for some time.

You can only set the prices you want when you have a pretty decent foothold in a market and serious brand recognition.

nVidia has brand recognition in PCs, but only with discrete graphics.

Their Tegra business has been automotive only (excepting oooold SHIELD/Switch TX1) for years now, and never really made the kind of headway that nVidia were looking for vs competitors in the Android space.

In fact TX1 was pretty much their last full system SoC in a consumer product, and that came out in 2015 originally - the Switch OLED 16nm SoC is just a shrink of it.

Also you missed the "reasonably priced" reference I was making 😭

Every product nVidia makes needs to compete internally against AI accelerators, high end GPUs and now CPUs for datacentres. They aren't going to waste wafer allocations and engineering resources on "reasonably priced" products, they will try to position themselves as a premium product with raytracing and AI.

If they can't make it work as a premium priced product, they'll kill the product line (again).

soresu · Mar 17, 2024

NTMBK said:
If they can't make it work as a premium priced product, they'll kill the product line (again).

Unless they go for Mac Studio size SKUs there's little point in making a fuss about RT no matter how premium they market it as.

Panino Manino · Mar 17, 2024

It's related to Nvidia.
It'll be funny next year when the games on the "weaker" Switch 2 have better IQ and frame stability than it's "rival" PS5 Pro.

There's no way this won't happen, right?

Ghostsonplanets · Mar 18, 2024

NTMBK said:
They aren't going to waste wafer allocations

Probably why they're going with Intel 3

Panino Manino said:
It's related to Nvidia.
It'll be funny next year when the games on the "weaker" Switch 2 have better IQ and frame stability than it's "rival" PS5 Pro.

There's no way this won't happen, right?

Of course not. DLSS can't work magic. Switch 2 will be a PS4 Portable/PS4 Pro Docked (I'm talking about output resolutions, not performance), so DLSS will be working a very low input resolution (360/540/720p portable and 720/900/1080p docked?). PS5 Pro will win just by virtue of input resolution being way higher, from 1200p worst case scenario to above.

FlameTail · Mar 18, 2024

800 mm² Nvidia SoC

NTMBK · Mar 19, 2024

Ghostsonplanets said:
Probably why they're going with Intel 3

Intel manufacturing is the cheap option for low end parts now? Owch!

poke01 · Mar 19, 2024

NTMBK said:
Intel manufacturing is the cheap option for low end parts now? Owch!

gotta get customers some how

Tigerick · Mar 19, 2024

NTMBK said:
Intel manufacturing is the cheap option for low end parts now? Owch!

That worry me. That's why I removed 128-bit options...

SoC with 64-bit memory controller is pretty small, that is OK to be manufactured by Intel 3 process. Let's see how the power efficiency goes...

FlameTail · Mar 19, 2024

Intel 4 = A New Hope

Intel 3 = The Last FinFET

Intel 20A = The Return of PowerVia

Intel 18A = The Intel Strikes Back

Ghostsonplanets · Mar 19, 2024

NTMBK said:
Intel manufacturing is the cheap option for low end parts now? Owch!

More like Nvidia is exploring and trying to prop up Intel manufacturing as another way to extort TSMC to lower prices for them. NV WoA SoC is a cheap and easy way to verify Intel Foundry manufacturing prowess and if they truly can be competitive with TSMC, without NV having to commit an entire GPU generation, like they did with Samsung.

The WoA SoC will be a low volume, low risk part. so it makes perfect sense for it to be chosen as the guinea pig for the Intel Foundry.

FlameTail · Mar 19, 2024

Ghostsonplanets said:
The WoA SoC will be a low volume, low risk part. so it makes perfect sense for it to be chosen as the guinea pig for the Intel Foundry.

So it will not be perf/watt competitive with Apple/Qualcomm.

Ghostsonplanets · Mar 19, 2024

FlameTail said:
So it will not be perf/watt competitive with Apple/Qualcomm.

In theory Intel 3 should be more than competitive with TSMC N5 family. It bring a 18% improvement in perf/W over Intel 4 and is a complete foundry process. If it will be competitive with M Series and X Elite remains to be seen. We don't know what NV plans are. Are they using in-house custom Arm cores or will use the standard Cortex X cores? Will they use Blackwell or Ada IP? Maybe something else? Implementation is key and until release of this rumored SoC, we're in the dark about the competitiveness aspect.

FlameTail · Mar 19, 2024

Ghostsonplanets said:
In theory Intel 3 should be more than competitive with TSMC N5 family. It bring a 18% improvement in perf/W over Intel 4 and is a complete foundry process. If it will be competitive with M Series and X Elite remains to be seen. We don't know what NV plans are. Are they using in-house custom Arm cores or will use the standard Cortex X cores? Will they use Blackwell or Ada IP? Maybe something else? Implementation is key and until release of this rumored SoC, we're in the dark about the competitiveness aspect.

Saying N5 family is painting with a broad brush.

N4P is a staggering 28% perf/W improvement over base N5.

N5
Perf: 100
Power: 100
Perf/Power = 100

N4P
Perf: 100
Power: 100-22 = 78
Perf/Power: 100/78 = 128 (+28% uplift vs N5)

Also Intel 18A is said to be competitive with TSMC N3P and N2. If as you claim that Intel 3 is competitive with N4P, then Intel 18A should surpass N3P/N2 by a huge margin. Which is certainly dubious.

Ghostsonplanets · Mar 19, 2024

FlameTail said:
Saying N5 family is painting with a broad brush.

View attachment 95553
N4P is a staggering 28% perf/W improvement over base N5.

N5
Perf: 100
Power: 100
Perf/Power = 100

N4P
Perf: 100
Power: 100-22 = 78
Perf/Power: 100/78 = 128 (+28% uplift vs N5)

Also Intel 18A is said to be competitive with TSMC N3P and N2. If as you claim that Intel 3 is competitive with N4P, then Intel 18A should surpass N3P/N2 by a huge margin. Which is certainly dubious.

Hence why I said N5 family. I don't know where Intel 4 falls in comparison with N5, N5P, N4 and N4P. We just know that Intel claims Intel 3 brings a 18% improvement in perf/W over Intel 4. So we can definitely say it's a N5 class node, but how it compare with is unknown.

eek2121 · Mar 19, 2024

Ghostsonplanets said:
More like Nvidia is exploring and trying to prop up Intel manufacturing as another way to extort TSMC to lower prices for them. NV WoA SoC is a cheap and easy way to verify Intel Foundry manufacturing prowess and if they truly can be competitive with TSMC, without NV having to commit an entire GPU generation, like they did with Samsung.

The WoA SoC will be a low volume, low risk part. so it makes perfect sense for it to be chosen as the guinea pig for the Intel Foundry.

No, Intel is significantly cheaper than TSMC. Since console parts are low margin/high volume parts, NVIDIA can have nearly double the margins by not using TSMC. IFS isn’t selling at a loss either. I have been hoping to get concrete numbers, but they definitely aren’t selling at a loss.

SpudLobby · Mar 19, 2024

FlameTail said:
So it will not be perf/watt competitive with Apple/Qualcomm.

We don’t know that. It may well be competitive with an M1/M2 in some ways, certainly if it’s Arm-based they’ll use a DSU which implies better uncore and power management than AMD and Intel so battery life could still be great. It’s on Intel 3 too not Intel 4.

SpudLobby · Mar 19, 2024

Is the Nvidia SOC going to be for Surface or WoA broadly *and* Surface?

Two very different sets of outcomes.

Thibsie · Mar 20, 2024

FlameTail said:
Intel 4 = A New Hope

Intel 3 = The Last FinFET

Intel 20A = The Return of PowerVia

Intel 18A = The Intel Strikes Back

or The Intel Strikes Flat ?
Hope not for the sake of everyone here...

Thibsie · Mar 20, 2024

SpudLobby said:
We don’t know that. It may well be competitive with an M1/M2 in some ways, certainly if it’s Arm-based they’ll use a DSU which implies better uncore and power management than AMD and Intel so battery life could still be great. It’s on Intel 3 too not Intel 4.

Better encore and power management than AMD x86.
Supposedly AMD is also coming with an ARM soc for Surface. We'll see.

Ghostsonplanets · Mar 20, 2024

SpudLobby said:
Is the Nvidia SOC going to be for Surface or WoA broadly *and* Surface?

Two very different sets of outcomes.

Rumors say that the NV SoC is a play at the WoA platform due to MS increasing investments and the end of QCOM exclusivity. The Surface custom Arm SoC is being designed by AMD.

Discussion NV Re-Enter ARM PC market in 2025!

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