Discussion Official 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

FelixDeCat · Feb 21, 2024

dullard said:
Walmart already has its own TV brand. But now they have software to go with it (assuming this deal goes through). So that they can track what you see on TV vs. what you buy in the store. That is, they'll have a much greater knowledge of what ads work. Walmart streaming shows coming next?

Doesn't affect me much since I wouldn't use VIZIO and strongly avoid shopping at Walmart unless I'm desperate.

Capital One buying Discover seems more interesting. Simply big banks getting bigger? Or will it actually let Discover compete vs the much bigger MasterCard, AmEx, and Visa?

I pray that the deal be allowed to happen. I used to have a Capital One card for over a decade. They refused to budge on their interest rate or offer updated balance transfer options despite numerous attempts to get them to do it. So I said goodbye and havent looked back. They keep begging me to come back but still will not offer a lower rate or balance transfer.

I used to have a secured Discover card during a recovery point in my life. They were the best of all "sub prime" cards out there. After one year they returned your security deposit, boosted the credit line on a regular basis and the interest rate was "ok" considering. I had a good relationship with Discover......however.....not all places accepted it and once my credit score was back in the 700s I dumped it.

Supposedly Cap One wants to eventually ditch Visa and make the Discover network the third largest card network outside the big 2. I think this would be good for consumers, however the backwards Biden administration is probably not forward thinking enough to see that.

FelixDeCat · Feb 21, 2024

Also, the market is expecting Nvidia to make a mess in bed ....then they will swoop in and 'buy the dip' afterwords.

We shall see..

Lost_in_the_HTTP · Feb 21, 2024

" They refused to budge on their interest rate or offer updated balance transfer options despite numerous attempts to get them to do it over a few years of asking on my part. So I said goodbye and havent looked back. They keep begging me to comeback but still will not offer a lower rate or balance transfer."

I don't know, or care what the interest rates are on my CCs. I pay in full every month, so no interest at all in many, many years.

If I need to make a larger purchase, I find a new card with a 0% promo period.

Balance transfers have fees, so no go here.

Brainonska511 · Feb 21, 2024

FelixDeCat said:
Supposedly Cap One wants to eventually ditch Visa and make the Discover network the third largest card network outside the big 2. I think this would be good for consumers, however the backwards Biden administration is probably not forward thinking enough to see that.

There are both good and bad reasons to favor this consolidation:

Good - having a larger bank with an interest in fostering a competing network to serve as competition against the other big 3, but particularly MC and Visa, could be a good thing for merchants and consumers alike.
Bad - Capital One is already a large holder of consumer credit, and it would be further consolidation in the consumer credit market, which could mean less choice and crappier deals for consumers when they are looking for a credit card.

repoman0 · Feb 21, 2024

Lost_in_the_HTTP said:
If I need to make a larger purchase, I find a new card with a 0% promo period.

Capital one is pretty great for this. I’ve opened many Quicksilver cards over the years for the 15 month 0% rate. Those guys paid for like $2000 of my masters tuition with their intro deals and 1.5% cash back. I have one open right now actually for some car and house stuff. Will pay it in 15 months while my cash earns 5.x%

repoman0 · Feb 21, 2024

… and NVDA beats big. Probably boosts things tomorrow.

AdamK47 · Feb 22, 2024

The AI rally is back on. Thanks nVidia.

dullard · Feb 22, 2024

Some intra-day milestones broken today.

S&P500 at all time high, crossed 5000 again, might hit 5100 if we end on a strong day.
DJIA hit 39000 for the first time.
Nasdaq hit 16000 again, within 1.2% of its all time high.

It is tempting me to take some profit. But I think this bubble will pop later, so I'll hold on for longer.

FelixDeCat · Feb 22, 2024

dullard said:
Some intra-day milestones broken today.

S&P500 at all time high, crossed 5000 again, might hit 5100 if we end on a strong day.
DJIA hit 39000 for the first time.
Nasdaq hit 16000 again, within 1.2% of its all time high.

It is tempting me to take some profit. But I think this bubble will pop later, so I'll hold on for longer.

I'm thinking of loading up on overpriced call options on Nvidia.... that expire tomorrow.

Clearly this stock has more run left in it and certainly will not pull back tomorrow. 😉

FelixDeCat · Feb 22, 2024

Picked up 1500 VTYX at 6.00

biostud · Feb 23, 2024

biostud said:
And rising +3.85% YTD

And now +6.61%

AdamK47 · Feb 23, 2024

Short sellers had a bad day yesterday. I feel so terribly bad for them.

jpiniero · Feb 23, 2024

AdamK47 said:
Short sellers had a bad day yesterday. I feel so terribly bad for them.

AI Hype will come crashing down in due time. But until then, yeah, shorting nVidia is going to be tough.

Come to think of it, AI Hype is going to kill the rate cuts for the time being. If you think about it, the real reason to do cuts right now is to help the stock market, regardless of any percieved notions of what the Fed is supposed to be doing. And AI Hype is just another example that there's too much money floating around still.

AdamK47 · Feb 23, 2024

jpiniero said:
AI Hype will come crashing down in due time. But until then, yeah, shorting nVidia is going to be tough.

Come to think of it, AI Hype is going to kill the rate cuts for the time being. If you think about it, the real reason to do cuts right now is to help the stock market, regardless of any percieved notions of what the Fed is supposed to be doing. And AI Hype is just another example that there's too much money floating around still.

I knew it! Powell is in it to boost his own portfolio.

KB · Feb 26, 2024

jpiniero said:
AI Hype will come crashing down in due time. But until then, yeah, shorting nVidia is going to be tough.

Come to think of it, AI Hype is going to kill the rate cuts for the time being. If you think about it, the real reason to do cuts right now is to help the stock market, regardless of any percieved notions of what the Fed is supposed to be doing. And AI Hype is just another example that there's too much money floating around still.

I had the same thought. Thanks to the stock market going up, people will feel more wealthy and will spend more and prices rise. In fact we have had record retirements as retirees feel they have enough saved. If the market crashes they may feel they need to go back to work.

But I also thought that keeping higher interest rates may also make some people feel more wealthy. For example, bonds, CDs, savings and preferreds all yield more now, making the wealthy who can save, feel wealthier. All I know is the same thing it always was, its a good time to have money and a bad time to be poor.

dullard · Feb 26, 2024

jpiniero said:
If you think about it, the real reason to do cuts right now is to help the stock market, regardless of any percieved notions of what the Fed is supposed to be doing.

Lets look at historical data. The graph below shows the last ~7 decades of changes in federal funds and how the stock market reacted. The x-axis is the direct increase/decrease in the fed fund rate over the last 12 months (i.e. going from a 4.33% fed rate to 5.33% fed rate is a 1.00% increase). The y-axis is the percent change in the S&P500 in the NEXT 12 months (i.e. the S&P500 going from 4076 to 4845 is a 19% increase).

The only thing you can realistically conclude from the graph is that there is NO CORRELATION between the two. An R^2 (coefficient of determination) of 0.0265 says there is no correlation. That is, an increase in the fed funds rate might increase, might decrease, or might do nothing to the S&P500. So, if the real reason is to help the stock market, then the fed is using a completely useless tool.

AdamK47 · Feb 26, 2024

Alphabet stock down 4% today.

I wonder why that happened.

Lost_in_the_HTTP · Feb 26, 2024

Best I can make out of that chart is a shotgun blast.

FelixDeCat · Feb 26, 2024

Lost_in_the_HTTP said:
Best I can make out of that chart is a shotgun blast.

Which is a big indicator of bubble markets.

My latest example:

ROOT insurance

They are up from 8.80 last Wednesday to nearly 24 dollars Monday, closing just under 23 on improved financial outlook. They supposedly have $500m in cash, $1.5b in debt, sales improved this quarter to nearly $200m. But they are losing money.

I only bought some today at $21

FelixDeCat · Feb 26, 2024

AdamK47 said:
Alphabet stock down 4% today.

I wonder why that happened.

This makes no sense. Goog is a cash cow. However, some competition is starting to rear its ugly head. I recently posted about my shift to Duck Duck Go and now have Proton Mail as a backup email both for privacy conerns with Goog. Also, just today, Musk announced he wants X to be the next Gmail:

Finally, CNBC was mentioning that with the transition to AI on more devices, less searches may take place on search engines and more on other services with the integrated feature (think Alexa, etc).

Alexa is my third hand.

FelixDeCat · Feb 26, 2024

dullard said:
Lets look at historical data. The graph below shows the last ~7 decades of changes in federal funds and how the stock market reacted. The x-axis is the direct increase/decrease in the fed fund rate over the last 12 months (i.e. going from a 4.33% fed rate to 5.33% fed rate is a 1.00% increase). The y-axis is the percent change in the S&P500 in the NEXT 12 months (i.e. the S&P500 going from 4076 to 4845 is a 19% increase).

The only thing you can realistically conclude from the graph is that there is NO CORRELATION between the two. An R^2 (coefficient of determination) of 0.0265 says there is no correlation. That is, an increase in the fed funds rate might increase, might decrease, or might do nothing to the S&P500. So, if the real reason is to help the stock market, then the fed is using a completely useless tool.
View attachment 94503

I only WISH the Fed would keep its paws off the stock market. I remember a time when they did not so quickly bow to Wall Street (who by the way has been pressuring hard for rate cuts). Finally the Fed is showing some spine to the worthless market makers and billionaires.

HOWEVER, I am no fool. I know they are secretly dying to go back to ZIRP and manipulating the bond market by artificially suppressing prices and thwarting bona fide price discovery (quantitative easing). Such manipulation should be illegal.

The stock market needs to live in FEAR of the Fed, not considering it as a "put" on their portfolios.

Bear market cycles are part of normal financial conditions and should be allowed to exist. That includes long, hard and deep crashes in stock and real estate prices. Who doesnt love cheap stocks and real estate?

AdamK47 · Feb 27, 2024

FelixDeCat said:
This makes no sense. Goog is a cash cow. However, some competition is starting to rear its ugly head. I recently posted about my shift to Duck Duck Go and now have Proton Mail as a backup email both for privacy conerns with Goog. Also, just today, Musk announced he wants X to be the next Gmail:

View attachment 94524

Finally, CNBC was mentioning that with the transition to AI on more devices, less searches may take place on search engines and more on other services with the integrated feature (think Alexa, etc).

Alexa is my third hand.

I think it had to do with them having to turn off their Gemini AI picture generator.

FelixDeCat · Feb 27, 2024

Picked up some Beam Therapeutics. Not much just a small amount. Price is 46, market cap 3.8b. My price target is 60.

dullard · Feb 27, 2024

FelixDeCat said:
HOWEVER, I am no fool. I know they are secretly dying to go back to ZIRP and manipulating the bond market by artificially suppressing prices and thwarting bona fide price discovery (quantitative easing).

Quantitative easing has been reducing over the last two years. It has a long way to go. But it is hard to argue that they are dying to go back to ZIRP and wanting quantitative easing, then they are doing the exact opposite of both.

Recent balance sheet trends

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

www.federalreserve.gov

FelixDeCat · Feb 28, 2024

Cramer says Google is a sell. Google is not focused and will go nowhere for a long time.

Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

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Discussion Official 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰