Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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soresu

Diamond Member
Dec 19, 2014
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Maybe for next LPDDR6, JEDEC shouldn't put a max speed limit for LPDDR standard
It's not about speed limits so much as how a certain bandwidth is achieved efficiently.

For example, GDDR6X doesn't use the standard GDDR6 IO protocols, which means you need a different PHY on the memory controller to handle it.

If these separate, faster LPDDR5 memories are using non standard IO protocols to achieve hgiher bandwidth without exploding the power budget then it balloons the memory controller area budget to accommodate that if they support the standard IO protocol too for cheaper SKUs.
 

soresu

Diamond Member
Dec 19, 2014
3,273
2,549
136
I think the only way it's possibly true is if Fire Range isn't reheated Granite Ridge, as Dragon Range is reheated Raphael.
I don't think reheated is the correct term.

More like repackaged for laptop?

I was under the impression that Dragon Range was a premium laptop CPU SKU to be paired with a dGPU.
 
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Hail The Brain Slug

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2005
3,525
2,493
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If 9950X is supposed to be $999 for 16C Zen5, and Strix Halo also has 16C Zen5 but in addition 40-50 TOPS NPU + 40 CU RDNA 3.5 + 3x memory bandwidth + advanced packaging, then Strix Halo should be quite a lot more expensive.

So the Strix Halo CPU alone ought to be between perhaps $1200-1500. Then the cost of everything else that the laptop consists of must be added on top of that (display, SSD, RAM , keyboard, battery, ...). Adding all of this up means Strix Halo based laptops should be really expensive.
7950X is currently around $620.

You can buy a BD790i, which is a 7945HX mini-itx motherboard with included heatsink for $520.

The 7945HX is dragon range, a repackaged 7950X for mobile.

You seem to think the mobile variants cost the OEMs similar price as retail desktop parts. The reality is they pay so little they can sell that entire MB set for less, which includes offering warranty and everything.

The BOM on the 7950X was estimated to be $70 per Ian Cuttress, which means AMD has a whole lot of leeway on cutting deals for OEMs.

Strix halo won't be different. Sure, BOM will be higher. But not so high an OEM will have to pay $1200-1500 for it. Not even close.
 

leoneazzurro

Golden Member
Jul 26, 2016
1,052
1,716
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7950X is currently around $620.

You can buy a BD790i, which is a 7945HX mini-itx motherboard with included heatsink for $520.

The 7945HX is dragon range, a repackaged 7950X for mobile.

You seem to think the mobile variants cost the OEMs similar price as retail desktop parts. The reality is they pay so little they can sell that entire MB set for less, which includes offering warranty and everything.

The BOM on the 7950X was estimated to be $70 per Ian Cuttress, which means AMD has a whole lot of leeway on cutting deals for OEMs.

Strix halo won't be different. Sure, BOM will be higher. But not so high an OEM will have to pay $1200-1500 for it. Not even close.
While I agree with the general reasoning, a friendly reminder that BOM cost is a thing, manufacturing costs are another thing and finally production costs are again another thing (and in most of countries, no company is legally allowed to sell at less than the manufacturing cost). They are related, but without knowing the cost accounting structure and the additional manufacturing costs (labour, depreciation, overheads, tooling, testing and binning, etc.) is very difficult to establish if and how much room AMD has really to further lowering prices in the client space, even if they would be willing to (and I suspect they won't because of margins).
 
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ToTTenTranz

Member
Feb 4, 2021
165
287
106
LPDDR defeats DDR, and takes the throne:


The LPCAMM standard opens the door for LPDDR to dominate desktops.
Latency used to be significantly higher, at least in number of cycles.
Though the biggest difference, which isn't listed there, is cost.

At similar generations, LPDDR chips tend to use much more expensive fab nodes than DDR ones. That's why the price-per-GB is usually a lot lower for regular DDR.


I expect Strix Halo to be mainly in $2k+ laptops. Or at least that's the idea.
That's my expectation as well, but I still hope to be wrong.

I hope someone will make a large-ish 800-1Kg 9" handheld that uses a Strix Halo you can limit to 25W in handheld mode but plug it in and its cooling system allows for 60-90W operation for PS5 performance. This is the dream for me.
 

SteinFG

Senior member
Dec 29, 2021
664
786
106
Latency on LPDDR is still huge (1.5x over regular, last time I checked?), and capacity is smaller than DDR. Whoever first switches to LPDDR (AMD or Intel) would automatically lose to the competition's CPU with regular DDR memory. I preduict CAMM with DDR6 will be the main desktop form factor.
 

Timmah!

Golden Member
Jul 24, 2010
1,521
852
136
Strix halo won't be different. Sure, BOM will be higher. But not so high an OEM will have to pay $1200-1500 for it. Not even close.
But apparently there will be no competition, so you will indeed pay arm and leg for it, and will actually run to do so and do so happily, cause 40 percent SPECINT perf increase is so good i guess, that you will never need faster computer after this.

Gospel of Adroc 16:12-14

:-D
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,990
440
126
Firstly: you're overestimating (by a lot) how much Strix Halo would cost ODMs.

Secondly, why are you assuming ODMs would be sold 9950Xs for MSRP?
I've not specified any price that I think ODMs pay for Strix Halo.

And I'm not assuming ODMs would be sold 9950Xs for MSRP.

Did you not even read the post you quoted from me? This is what it said:

"Sure, but it’s the same when stores & ODMs buy separate desktop CPUs such as 9950X from AMD too. The price they pay will be lower than retail, and different stores & ODMs will get different price from AMD."
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,990
440
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According to the gospel of adroc. He will be wrong about that just like the April release. Slowly but surely all of his talking points are falling apart.
Yes, agreed. I also think the suggested $999 price for 9950X is too high.

And that was part of the point with using that CPU as a base to show what it would mean for other CPUs such as Strix Halo. Strix Halo is basically 16C Zen5 like 9950X, but in addition it has lots of other goodies, so it'll cost even more (when adding up the price that ODMs pay for the CPU + ODM markup + store markup, when products containing that CPU are sold in retail stores). And then laptops with Strix Halo would be very expensive as result.

So it all bounces back to questioning whether $999 for 9950X is realistic.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,990
440
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Expected by whom? To me, it seems as it would be an economically difficult venture to sideline this chip off of premium laptops to a product category such as x86 SFF PCs. (Does a category of "premium SFF PCs" even exist in x86 land? That's the land in which customers who require workstation PCs can actually buy workstation PCs, rather than having to make do with SFF PCs.)
SFF PCs containing Strix Halo has been discussed earlier in this thread. Here's one example:


Also, based on past track record there has been SFF PCs built based on previous top-of-the-line AMD Zen laptop CPUs. So if they'll build laptops based on Strix Halo, why not SFF PCs? Personally I'd be interested in buying one, even though I'd prefer an AM5 variant if that would be available.
 

uzzi38

Platinum Member
Oct 16, 2019
2,705
6,427
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I've not specified any price that I think ODMs pay for Strix Halo.

And I'm not assuming ODMs would be sold 9950Xs for MSRP.

Did you not even read the post you quoted from me? This is what it said:

"Sure, but it’s the same when stores & ODMs buy separate desktop CPUs such as 9950X from AMD too. The price they pay will be lower than retail, and different stores & ODMs will get different price from AMD."
You can't simultaneously say this whilst also claiming this:

Yes, agreed. I also think the suggested $999 price for 9950X is too high.

And that was part of the point with using that CPU as a base to show what it would mean for other CPUs such as Strix Halo. Strix Halo is basically 16C Zen5 like 9950X, but in addition it has lots of other goodies, so it'll cost even more (when adding up the price that ODMs pay for the CPU + ODM markup + store markup, when products containing that CPU are sold in retail stores). And then laptops with Strix Halo would be very expensive as result.

So it all bounces back to questioning whether $999 for 9950X is realistic.
If you recognise the pricing for ODMs is totally detached from the pricing of consumer retail parts.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,990
440
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If you recognise the pricing for ODMs is totally detached from the pricing of consumer retail parts.
Not sure what I mean. It's exactly what I wrote. I.e. ODMs obviously pay less that retail price for computer parts such as CPU.

But you cannot compare ODM price of Strix Halo to end customer price for 9950X, and thereby conclude that Strix Halo is cheaper than 9950X. Not a fair comparison. The closest would instead be to use ODM price for Strix Halo + ODM & store markup for the CPU part of a product, when that product is sold in a retail store. Then it would be roughly comparable to 9950X end customer retail price.
 

uzzi38

Platinum Member
Oct 16, 2019
2,705
6,427
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Not sure what I mean. It's exactly what I wrote. I.e. ODMs obviously pay less that retail price for computer parts such as CPU.

But you cannot compare ODM price of Strix Halo to end customer price for 9950X, and thereby conclude that Strix Halo is cheaper than 9950X. Not a fair comparison. The closest would instead be to use ODM price for Strix Halo + ODM markup + store markup, when a product containing that CPU is sold in a retail store. Then it would be roughly comparable to 9950X end customer retail price.
So if you agree that you can't compare the price an ODM pays for STX-Halo to the retail price of a 9950X, then we agree that STX-Halo cannot be used to determine if a $999 MSRP is realistic or not. That's the next logical step, no?
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,990
440
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So if you agree that you can't compare the price an ODM pays for STX-Halo to the retail price of a 9950X, then we agree that STX-Halo cannot be used to determine if a $999 MSRP is realistic or not. That's the next logical step, no?
The assumption is that ODMs will pay more for Strix Halo than for 9950X when they buy those CPUs from AMD, since both CPUs use 16C Zen5 but Strix Halo has lots of extras.

If that is the case, then "ODM price for Strix Halo + ODM markup + store markup" will also be higher than "ODM price for 9950X + ODM markup + store markup". I.e. Strix Halo will also be more expensive than 9950X when sold in retail (as part of a product).

But you could of course argue that ODMs will pay less for Strix Halo than for 9950X when they buy those CPUs from AMD. Is that's what you're saying, and in that case why do you think that would be reasonable when Strix Halo has lots of extras compared to 9950X?
 
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uzzi38

Platinum Member
Oct 16, 2019
2,705
6,427
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The assumption is that ODMs will pay more for Strix Halo than for 9950X when they buy those CPUs from AMD, since both CPUs use 16C Zen5 but Strix Halo has lots of extras.

If that is the case, then "ODM price for Strix Halo + ODM markup + store markup" will also be higher than "ODM price for 9950X + ODM markup + store markup". I.e. Strix Halo will also be more expensive than 9950X when sold in retail (as part of a product).

Strix Halo will never be sold via retail directly due to the 256b memory bus.

It will always have to go through ODMs. That's still treated as "sold through ODMs", not sold through retail. You're not making sense.

But you could of course argue that ODMs will pay less for Strix Halo than for 9950X when they buy those CPUs from AMD. Is that's what you're saying, and in that case why do you think that would be reasonable when Strix Halo has lots of extras compared to 9950X?

Once again, you're correlating ODM prices with retail prices, whilst simultaneously saying the two aren't compatible. Make up your mind.

Unless you're living in some fantasy land where you think Strix Halo (a niche product) will be sold in AIOs or mini PCs (a highly niche market) at a low price. If that's the case, I can't help you.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,141
6,838
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It seems more like a professional part for CAD users and that sort than anyone else. I can't think of many users who would want both 16 CPU cores and 40 graphics cores as a desktop replacement.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,811
4,786
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The assumption is that ODMs will pay more for Strix Halo than for 9950X when they buy those CPUs from AMD, since both CPUs use 16C Zen5 but Strix Halo has lots of extras.

If that is the case, then "ODM price for Strix Halo + ODM markup + store markup" will also be higher than "ODM price for 9950X + ODM markup + store markup". I.e. Strix Halo will also be more expensive than 9950X when sold in retail (as part of a product).

But you could of course argue that ODMs will pay less for Strix Halo than for 9950X when they buy those CPUs from AMD. Is that's what you're saying, and in that case why do you think that would be reasonable when Strix Halo has lots of extras compared to 9950X?
How it works, what ODMs pay, is exactly the same situation as with Intel, Nvidia, any other company on the market.

You have confused two different markets, on which the retail has much higher markup, compared to OEM.
 

dr1337

Senior member
May 25, 2020
420
701
136
I can't think of many users who would want both 16 CPU cores and 40 graphics cores as a desktop replacement.
I can't think of any business or corporation that wants to replace their old machines with new and more expensive slower ones.

Imagine if you've never been in this hobby until now. What looks better on paper, a 16c 128eu chip from intel or a 8c 12cu chip from AMD? OEMs know that enterprise customers are going to invest for the future, try not to waste their money, so specs indeed do matter. If it looks more economical to upgrade/refurb old systems, customers will do that instead, and thus lost sales for both OEMs and AMD.

Really as a gamer I don't think Strix Halo is that important outside of laptops either.
But in the work environment core counts and GPU perf really do matter at key moments. A lot of people really do care about getting jobs done faster even if it's only by a few minutes.

Like with the new snapdragon chip, I cant imagine myself seeking out a 12c ARM chip for a chromebook or a tablet, but OEMs in those markets still demand to compete with Apple and x86. Customers will eventually reject being sold the same performance year after year so progress is always to be expected in some form or fashion.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,112
11,783
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Latency used to be significantly higher, at least in number of cycles.

It would be nice to see a side-by-side latency comparison (both in cycles and in ms @ industry standard clocks) for DDR5, DDR6, and LPDDR6.

Latency on LPDDR is still huge (1.5x over regular, last time I checked?), and capacity is smaller than DDR. Whoever first switches to LPDDR (AMD or Intel) would automatically lose to the competition's CPU with regular DDR memory. I preduict CAMM with DDR6 will be the main desktop form factor.
Unless AMD and Intel both switch to LPDDR at the same time. Which is possible, especially if "the industry" essentially nudges them in that direction by making DDR6 loaded up with features that are mostly specific to servers. Not that I'm saying with absolute confidence that DDR6 will turn out that way, but hey, it might.
 
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