Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,783
7,994
136
"Within a month" - looks like the Ukrainian summer will be hot for Russian air and ground assets.
Well, it's something, but not enough - IMHO. 20 or so with at least medium range AGM's would be real helpful. CAS missions seem too dangerous right now - at least with the Russians still having short range AD.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,421
33,911
136
Russia is pushing hard in the northeast and pushing towards Kharkiv and theres news about increased desertion rates. We don't know whether the proportion of deaths/desertion is alot higher among the more disposable troops like foreign contractors tricked into signing up.

The headlines are grim. Ukraine is staring at defeat and could lose big in the summer offensive. Ukraine is hard pressed for manpower and materiel.

The Ukrainians simply need firepower and lots of it. They'll never be able to contend with Russia's manpower advantage without it and should not be expected to.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,444
48,759
136
I would surely hope so. Negotiations have to involve both Ukraine and Russia, anything else is simply a waste of time.
Negotiations are themselves a waste of time unless that time is used to re-arm to prepare for the next attack.

The entire reason we are here is Russia violated its promises not to invade Ukraine. What are they going to do this time, super duper promise?
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,421
33,911
136
Putin won't negotiate if he thinks he is on the verge of winning.

The only real viable option is to put Russians attacking Ukraine into the ground as efficiently as possible and do so without end in sight. Either make them give up or enjoy the slightly more peaceful of a world with millions fewer Russians in it.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,444
48,759
136
‘Re-Arm for the next attack” LMAO. Yeah cause they’re really struggling with weapon deliveries and troop shortages.
Well that would be the point, to re-arm, yes.

We both know that Russia’s word is utterly worthless and any sane person would realize that Russia is highly likely to attack again in the future regardless of whatever they agree to now.

Agree?
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,444
48,759
136
Like I said before. The only way is to Nut Punch Vlad in a way no one will ever forget, or want to repeat.

That may include dealing with Xi, Un and Modi also.
Exactly. Russia only understands violence, they think all other agreements are for chumps.

Again - the only reason we are here is that Russia broke an agreement it had already made to not attack Ukraine!
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,421
33,911
136
Apparently they also successfully hit the refinery at Tuapse which the Russians just spent months repairing.

Kind of remarkable at this stage that there is still a major lack of AD fire and apparently no organized anti-drone teams like the Ukrainians have despite the Russians saying they have them now to cover such a vital port.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,512
7,564
136
Apparently they also successfully hit the refinery at Tuapse which the Russians just spent months repairing.

Kind of remarkable at this stage that there is still a major lack of AD fire and apparently no organized anti-drone teams like the Ukrainians have despite the Russians saying they have them now to cover such a vital port.
Anti-drone teams operate on land.
It may not be possible to guard the water front without a massive tech development and logistical effort. Any Russian ship that tries is destroyed, eventually. Not so easily replaced.
Ports within range of an enemy are worthless until drone and anti drone tech matures a lot further.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,421
33,911
136
Anti-drone teams operate on land.
It may not be possible to guard the water front without a massive tech development and logistical effort. Any Russian ship that tries is destroyed, eventually. Not so easily replaced.
Ports within range of an enemy are worthless until drone and anti drone tech matures a lot further.

If there is a geographical problem for them I think it's more that Novo is in a valley than it being seaside. Ukraine downs drones approaching Odessa all the time.

More likely they just are not allocating many resources to their efforts.
 

Zor Prime

Golden Member
Nov 7, 1999
1,021
588
136
Willy had a particularly good drop this morning (well, early morning in the USA.)

Combs over a lot of the recent situation.


I really do like Willy's stuff. He's been embedded with the Ukrainians and still has friends fighting on the ground today. Bias reporting can be tiresome and he's largely resilient to propaganda and very pro-soldier. More good stuff than otherwise in a space that's generally tilted one direction or another. He generally posts something once a day, give the Aussie a look.
 
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