Discussion ***Official*** 2025 Stock Market Thread 💰

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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
14,546
10,181
136
AMD, Amazon, Google, Microsoft clearly didn't get the memo..

You need earnings to come up short for stocks to go up (just like Tesla).
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,590
516
126
Well the NET thing certainly hurts but no reason to cry. I think it's overbought at this point.

I put the entirety of the NET money into Amazon.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,561
2,575
126
Big Bear the next Palantir? 🐻

Bulls have pushed it to the stratosphere relative to earnings on one government AI contract. Terms were not disclosed.

Current price is eightish, fibs are 5, 8 and 13.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
14,546
10,181
136
Can someone explain something to me.. I've seen this a few times..

What is that big downward spike in the graph? Did someone misprice the sale so there was a temporary dip or is that the calls/ puts being exercised or is it something else?

 

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,321
3,406
136
@FelixDeCat - I don't know but I can guess. Low liquidity. So somebody who really wanted to sell and sell a lot had to go deep into the open orders.

But it bounces right back since that was a one time trade and they cleared most of the open orders.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,561
2,575
126
Can someone explain something to me.. I've seen this a few times..

What is that big downward spike in the graph? Did someone misprice the sale so there was a temporary dip or is that the calls/ puts being exercised or is it something else?
@FelixDeCat - I don't know but I can guess. Low liquidity. So somebody who really wanted to sell and sell a lot had to go deep into the open orders.

But it bounces right back since that was a one time trade and they cleared most of the open orders.

On a gigantic company stock like TSM, this it was probably an error of some sort. However I see things like this a lot because I like to trade very small companies.

There are several different ECN Exchanges that (supposedly) send their trade data to the main exchanges like NASDAQ or NYSE. When you see a bid / ask it is (supposed to be) an aggregate price on all the ECNs best BID / ASK. When they cross, a trade happens.

Normal people like you and me trade on ECNs (like ARCA, CITDL, EDGX, NYSE, BZX, AMEX, etc) because our brokers are PAID to route our orders over different exchanges (payment for order flow). That is how you can have zero commission trades.

Sometimes it just an attempt at straight up manipulation, which is easy to get away with on small compnay stocks. I hate that so much. You wait all damn day long and they go pull the f'ckn rug out with bullshit like that. If you are buying and holding, this matters not. If you are just trading, it matters a lot.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,561
2,575
126
Another thing I've always wanted to mention is something called VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price). There are people who program algorithms to trade off it.

Here is one stock I was watching today.


The circled price was the closing VWAP (.1440). Earlier in the day it was .08, .09, .11 and finished at .14.


The 3 down arrows were market maker (or private traders) attempt to push the stock back down to VWAP (the gold horizontal line):



The final one at 2:30 PM CST (30 mins before close) was A VIOLENT move downwards to VWAP. People were probably happy to have bought this penny stock crap at .09 this morning and still holding for .19 then some algo comes along and violently reprices it back to VWAP near the close. If that was you, you would be like "WTF?!"

People want to buy below VWAP and sell above VWAP all day long.

This recovered and closed above, however. The stock is garbage but it was just a trade.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,561
2,575
126
Not all stocks go above and below the VWAP line, but many do. Its (sometimes) a good indicator you are overpaying or getting in cheap (assuming it goes back up!!!!). Here is PLTR. It is a gigantic company and not easily pushed around:



You can see the buys and sells above and below VWAP. After that, it recovered and powered above all day long. A very strong day for Palantir.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,590
516
126
Amazon started falling so I sold it all for a retirement inducing $260 profit lol.

I need some clarity there before getting back in.
 

bookem dano

Senior member
Oct 19, 1999
250
11
81
I love Windows....7 and 10.❤️

Win 11 can go jump in the lake. 🤬

I'm still using Win 10 and will be forced to upgrade my 2700k processor from 2012 this October.

And I am perfectly happy with my Sandybrige CPU.
I'm still rocking an AMD Phenom II X6 from 2010. Quicken hates this machine. Has a TV tuner card in it that no longer can get signals in my current house
 
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bookem dano

Senior member
Oct 19, 1999
250
11
81
I've recently been debating the true value of maxing out a 401k. Yes, you get a tax deduction that year but when you eventually withdraw the funds you are taxed at regular income taxes. If you instead invested that money in the regular market you'd be taxed far less at the long term rate when you sold it.
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
5,111
4,408
136
I've recently been debating the true value of maxing out a 401k. Yes, you get a tax deduction that year but when you eventually withdraw the funds you are taxed at regular income taxes. If you instead invested that money in the regular market you'd be taxed far less at the long term rate when you sold it.
It is pretty simple to show that the advantage is large even if your tax rate in retirement is the same.

401k:
$20k * 20 years at 10% gains is $134.5k.
Pay 20% tax on withdraw = $107.6k

Brokerage:
Pay 20% now, so you have $16k * 20 years = $107.6k. Now pay 15% cap gains on the $91k you made. Also pay taxes over time on the 1.5% dividends that accumulated for free in the 401k.

Now take into account tax management strategies available in retirement that make your income tax bracket much lower vs W2 income and it looks even better.

No one knows what taxes will look like down the line so the best answer is to hedge and do all of the above, which is what I do. But 401k for both myself and my wife get maxed out first because my tax bracket is much higher now.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,763
4,289
126
I've recently been debating the true value of maxing out a 401k. Yes, you get a tax deduction that year but when you eventually withdraw the funds you are taxed at regular income taxes. If you instead invested that money in the regular market you'd be taxed far less at the long term rate when you sold it.
Many people with both 401k accounts and the money to invest in them are in the higher tax brackets. The idea is to get the tax savings now when your tax rates are high, and then withdraw later when you are at a low (or even 0%) tax bracket. But, as tax rates have been cut over and over through the years, the value of the 401k has been dropping.

If on the other hand, your taxes are low now and you somehow have sufficient money to invest, then the best option is the Roth 401k. Pay your low taxes now and never pay again regardless of what happens to your tax brackets later. You might be in this situation where the 401k is not the best route but then the Roth 401k could be a great option. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roth_401(k)

Benefits you might not be considering:
1) As @repoman0 was discussing, both options are great for investments that would have yearly taxes. Dividend paying stocks/bonds really suck in a taxable account. You keep paying taxes year after year after year on all those dividends. Put the dividend paying stocks/bonds in any form of tax deferred investment and you are only taxed once (if at all).

2) Same goes with any trading strategy likely to have high turnover. Put them in the tax-free or tax-deferred 401k accounts and then you no longer have to worry about short term capital gain taxes.

3) Tax deferments now often qualify you for things that you wouldn't otherwise be eligible for. Think of anything with an income limit. If you are just above that limit, put a bit more into the 401k, and BAM you are under the limit. This could be massive savings depending on the circumstances.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,763
4,289
126
3) Tax deferments now often qualify you for things that you wouldn't otherwise be eligible for. Think of anything with an income limit. If you are just above that limit, put a bit more into the 401k, and BAM you are under the limit. This could be massive savings depending on the circumstances.
Here is an example, @bookem dano . Suppose in 2025 you are single and make $50k after deductions (meaning your income was at least $65k since the standard deduction is $15k for single filers). Suppose you do have those capital gains that you talk about in the regular market. Then you'd be at a 15% long term capital gains tax bracket. Meaning, you'd pay 15% tax on all your long term market gains this year.

Now suppose you pop $2k extra into a 401k. Your income is now $48k after deductions. That puts you into the 0% long-term capital gains bracket (single filers with under $48,350 income after deductions). Bingo, all long-term capital gains are tax free this year for you just for putting a bit extra into the 401k.

The more that you max out the 401k, the more it opens up more doors like that one.
 
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IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
71,945
32,081
136
I inherited a variable deferred annuity. I had never even heard of them before then. If you have already maxed out your 401 or IRA, they might be worth looking into. Purchase with pre-tax dollars, grow tax free, tax on the earnings when you withdraw. One can tailor the investments to reduce the taxable earnings as well.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
71,945
32,081
136
Here is an example, @bookem dano . Suppose in 2025 you are single and make $50k after deductions (meaning your income was at least $65k since the standard deduction is $15k for single filers). Suppose you do have those capital gains that you talk about in the regular market. Then you'd be at a 15% long term capital gains tax bracket. Meaning, you'd pay 15% tax on all your long term market gains this year.

Now suppose you pop $2k extra into a 401k. Your income is now $48k. That puts you into the 0% long-term capital gains bracket (single filers with under $48,350 income after deductions). Bingo, all long-term capital gains are tax free this year for you just for putting extra into the 401k.

The more that you max out the 401k, the more it opens up more doors like that one.
Only for the first few dollars of long term capital gains. After that, you're right back in the 15% bracket.
 

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,321
3,406
136
Sales of Tesla in the EU are down sharply. Also in the US. It looks like no one likes our budding fascist.
 

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,321
3,406
136
We HAD been on a nice rate cutting glide path, but that is somewhat questionable at this point.

The Fed is going to have to see what effects the tariffs have and, more importantly, the extent of those effects.

The one thing that we DO know is that they won't be good since these tariffs aren't, mostly, geared to any specific industries. The steel and aluminum ones might be useful, but we'll see.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,971
1,097
126
We HAD been on a nice rate cutting glide path, but that is somewhat questionable at this point.

The Fed is going to have to see what effects the tariffs have and, more importantly, the extent of those effects.

The one thing that we DO know is that they won't be good since these tariffs aren't, mostly, geared to any specific industries. The steel and aluminum ones might be useful, but we'll see.
What I've seen is saying the tariffs on steel and Al will slow down manufacturing in the industries that use them. I would think construction would be the hardest hit. Going by the older tariffs, job loss can be 75x downstream for the jobs created in the steel industry.
 

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,321
3,406
136
What I've seen is saying the tariffs on steel and Al will slow down manufacturing in the industries that use them. I would think construction would be the hardest hit. Going by the older tariffs, job loss can be 75x downstream for the jobs created in the steel industry.
Higher prices don't do anyone any good. As I've said before, this is just a game Trump is playing so that he can justify cutting taxes. It's unfortunate that he has majorities in both houses. But those folks aren't stupid, especially in the House.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,763
4,289
126
Only for the first few dollars of long term capital gains. After that, you're right back in the 15% bracket.
True, but it would be hard to have a large capital gain and be under $50k income after deductions. The more capital gains you have the higher your taxable income, and thus the more you'd need to put into the 401k to be in the 0% tax bracket.

It helps a lot if you are married and have different income levels--which is a fairly common situation. Then you can both maximize the 401k and the cutoff to have 0% capital gains is much higher.
 
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