This will be a post that sums up where the market is going over the next few years.
Market is going in the direction of higher and higher integration. Integration of both hardware, hardware features, but also hardware and software.
Laptops over past years exploded in popularity and volume for very simple reason. Convenience. They are small form factor computers that are also mobile. They can be connected to larger screens, they can have keyboards and mouse connected, giving you best of all worlds, except one. Ultimate, maximum performance. That was always reserved for highest of the highest end of desktops, and usually for DIY.
Thats the reason also why Desktop and DIY markets were dying for several past years. 95% of market chose laptops because they were much more convenient solution. And performance of those products fit with 95% of markets needs.
Only very small nieche of users buys desktops, and even smaller nieche is buying DIY parts.
And now we turn to the AI part of the equation. AI in current form is very primitive, and will still be primitive for quite some time. However AI will push for larger and larger integration of parts, and larger and larger RAM pools. You will be required to have powerful APUs IF you want to be in the mainstream market, when Microsoft, Google on Android will want to use their own AI models and make something akin to Jarvis from Iron Man work and "enrich people's lives"(and generate revenue for themselves). Jarvis-like AI will make possible changing the form factor of computers from desktops to basically... everything imaginable. TV with camera and microphone listening and observing you 24h/7 days a week and waiting for your prompts? "Show me the video of two guys walking on 3 legs, by strapping their legs together" "launch VRtnite". "What is the weather at my parents house today?" - proceeding to show you widget of the weather in that place on your TV.
As you can see a lot of interest is lining up together.
So how companies will approach this in upcoming years?
Expect larger and larger emphasize on integrated products. M4, M4 Pro, M4 Max, M4 Ultra competitors from everybody.
AMD already has M4 and M4 Pro competition. Intel already has M4 competition. Qualcomm? They are not really a competition for desktop platform that Windows was, but they are one hell of a competition for Android platform. Nvidia is rumored to make ARM SOC for mainstream market, AMD is rumored to be cooking something as well for ARM market.
Expect also increasing emphasis on ecosystem of products. Apple has its own, but so far its not really capable at least in terms of AI. Microsoft would want something contextual and in real time, as well as google wants to be able to show results to your prompts at apropriate display in your environment, be it your smart glasses, smart TV, smart displays, etc. For that you need as big integration of software and hardware as possible. The Jobs quote "Works like magic" is fitting to what Microsoft and Google want to do with the contextual AI, and how it will work with different products in one's environment. Will it be integration of ecosystem or MS, Goog and Apple will work together to make possible of open standard and interplay of different products in one environment? We will see...
Or will it look something like this?
Thats why this whole discussion about what desktop is, is pointless. Its a discussion of "where the puck was" instead of "where the puck is going".
I expect that mainstream market for the time being will take the form of NUCs/SFFs, AIOs and laptops. And DIY will go in the market of thredrippers/EPYC CPUs, highest margin of the highest margin possible.
Imagine it this way. The same Ryzen 7 or 9 products as we currently have on AM5, but with Threadripper or EPYC name, instead of Ryzen, and apropriate price tag.
Ryzen 7 and 9 products replaced with Strix Point and Strix Halo products. Soldered to Motherboards, or coming as SBCs.