The Trump Tariffs thread

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Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
32,882
12,163
136
Yeah our expiring hardware from the 90s is enough to stop Russia but China, China stands a chance. We only outspend them what? 10 to 1?
i've been out of the defense world for a bit, but the last i read was china does not need to defeat the US in a head to head war. it merely needs to deter carrier groups - thus the hypersonic missiles. make defending taiwan so horrendously costly that the US wouldn't risk its crown jewels of power projection
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
36,914
32,061
136
i've been out of the defense world for a bit, but the last i read was china does not need to defeat the US in a head to head war. it merely needs to deter carrier groups - thus the hypersonic missiles. make defending taiwan so horrendously costly that the US wouldn't risk its crown jewels of power projection
I have never been in the defense world but I find it quite difficult to believe China could disable all of our carrier groups in 20 minutes. Russia was supposed to be the 2nd most powerful military in the world before we pantsed them in Ukraine. That means even if China is better than Russia they are close enough to each other to both be an order of magnitude less powerful.
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
14,542
10,180
136
I have never been in the defense world but I find it quite difficult to believe China could disable all of our carrier groups in 20 minutes. Russia was supposed to be the 2nd most powerful military in the world before we pantsed them in Ukraine. That means even if China is better than Russia they are close enough to each other to both be an order of magnitude less powerful.

I seem to remember reading some news report there was a war games simulation run in early 2000's when the Bush administration wanted to invade Iran.

They wanted to see if they could use carriers in the gulf to support the invasion. However a simple simulation of the Iranians using 30,000 piloted small boats with explosives on board showed.. the carrier force could not shoot down all 30,000 boats. After a while one would actually hit and damage the carrier and it would go downhill from there.

But that was then and this is now.. China can probably use the same strategy with drones and if they have enough.. no way the US carrier force can shoot them down with 100% effect.

Drones have changed the battlefield calcuations dramatically.
 
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SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,280
4,539
136
But that was then and this is now.. China can probably use the same strategy with drones and if they have enough.. no way the US carrier force can shoot them down with 100% effect.

Drones have changed the battlefield calcuations dramatically.
I don't think the problem is sinking a carrier, I'm fairly certain most countries could do it if they wanted to put that sort of resources into it. The problem, I think, it is what happens after you do? How does America respond? Is it worth the retaliation?
I really think that is what stops China from going after Tiawan, not the fear that they would not be able to take down a carrier fleet, but what happens when they do.
 

dainthomas

Lifer
Dec 7, 2004
14,830
3,779
136
I have never been in the defense world but I find it quite difficult to believe China could disable all of our carrier groups in 20 minutes. Russia was supposed to be the 2nd most powerful military in the world before we pantsed them in Ukraine. That means even if China is better than Russia they are close enough to each other to both be an order of magnitude less powerful.

Hasn't Ukraine been shooting down their supposed hypersonic missiles with Patriot?
 

DZero

Senior member
Jun 20, 2024
992
369
96

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
32,882
12,163
136
Very interesting interview by Ezra Klein on the state of US vs China.

I don't think the US torching its international relations will come as a surprise to any of us here, but what definitely caught me were the "dark factories" that are fully robotic save for periodic maintenance. No humans required. That's some advanced engineering shit. And yeah, they are wayyyyyyyyyy ahead on BEVs

 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
25,838
24,175
136
lol these monsters are just so fucking stupid. I enjoy every time another country tells them to fuck off on something. I understand they will have to be strategic for things at first, but it's all about mitigating the pain while they decouple from the US as much as possible. And that takes time.

 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
25,838
24,175
136
Well...dammit...I didn't think the leopards would eat MY face...

Any of those fuckers who suffer that voted for Trump, I'll cheers a beer for every fucknut that loses their farm because of this shit show.

Man I am gonna be drunk a lot with all this delicious schadenfreude.
 
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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
12,869
3,644
136
Yeah our expiring hardware from the 90s is enough to stop Russia but China, China stands a chance. We only outspend them what? 10 to 1?
It's about 7:2 now but it's most likely closer than that. U.S. MIC is highly inefficient with its spending so we had to do things like cancel the F22 program because it was too expensive. For a long time, we were wasting fuck-tons of money on wars in AF and IQ but at least that had ended.

To some extent, China is trying to copy us with more aircraft carriers and near peer fighter jets so the spending gap is only going to narrow further.


I don't think the problem is sinking a carrier, I'm fairly certain most countries could do it if they wanted to put that sort of resources into it.
LOL wut? 🤣
 

DZero

Senior member
Jun 20, 2024
992
369
96
Any of those fuckers who suffer that voted for Trump, I'll cheers a beer for every fucknut that loses their farm because of this shit show.

Man I am gonna be drunk a lot with all this delicious schadenfreude.
The issue are the democrat farmers, they are minority and get the worst scenario... even worse with the Russian farmers
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
25,838
24,175
136
The issue are the democrat farmers, they are minority and get the worst scenario... even worse with the Russian farmers
As I said, I take no pleasure in their suffering and I voted and campaigned for the other candidate. This is why I specifically said I will enjoy the suffering of the MAGA voting farmers - it's a very clear case by case scenario.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
25,838
24,175
136
I think the safest long-term investment positions in America right now are beans and rice futures.
 

Josh128

Senior member
Oct 14, 2022
766
1,267
106
Yeah our expiring hardware from the 90s is enough to stop Russia but China, China stands a chance. We only outspend them what? 10 to 1?

Nowhere near that, but if you take into account they are likely getting at least 5x more for their money spent by not getting raked over the coals by the aerospace/defense contractors like the US is, you can see why this is no joke.
 

Josh128

Senior member
Oct 14, 2022
766
1,267
106
I have never been in the defense world but I find it quite difficult to believe China could disable all of our carrier groups in 20 minutes. Russia was supposed to be the 2nd most powerful military in the world before we pantsed them in Ukraine. That means even if China is better than Russia they are close enough to each other to both be an order of magnitude less powerful.
Russia isnt even in the same ballpark as China, my dude. Their broken down cold war era equipment billowing black smoke is pretty damned sad. Do you remember the opening ceremony for the 2008 Olympics in Bejing? No other ceremony has come even close to that before or since, and for good reason: their seriousness about education and hard work and the way they work together and for the country is incredible. Its quite clear that the only thing the US will have over China in very short order is that we are/were a democracy and they are communists.
 
Jan 25, 2011
16,954
9,368
146
lol Boy everyone is going to rush to do business with the US

They really think every other country should just abandon any self preservation and cater to them. They threaten every countries financial health but damn them for trying to do anything to preserve it.

Again, fuck them all as inhumanely as possible.
 
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