Not to mention it would be an abysmal track record considering they initially tried to hit 12-15 months for new generations. Currently it has been
- Zen 2 -> Zen 3 -> 16 months
- Zen 3 -> Zen 4 -> 22 months
- Zen 4 -> Zen 5 -> 22 months
- Zen 5 -> Zen 6 (in 2027) -> 29+ months
I wouldn't hesitate to call it "an epic fail in delivery schedule" considering Zen 6 is supposed to be a rather minor architectural change.
Blame Intel for AMD’s slow cadence. AMD doesn’t really have any competition, so they aren’t going to speed run advancements.
Intel reported a D0 of <0.4 back in September 2024. Which is pretty good and similar to what TSMC is reporting, when Intel wants to release 18A products in H2/2025. The question is, if 18A has the same D0 reduction trend line.
Intel doesn’t have bad yields for the same reason TSMC doesn’t: EUV. EUV does much of the heavy lifting, so defect rates will be similar, especially since ASML is the only game in town.
That is why I’ve always called out the skeptical folks that claim yields are an issue. They aren’t and with all their recent stuff using EUV, never were.
For Intel: capacity is an issue, cost is an issue, supply chains are an issue, and brain drain is an issue.
Regarding capacity, while Intel does have capacity, they don’t have enough to support multiple nodes and multiple market segments (OEMs, DIY, server, etc) They also need some for outside customers, so it has been a pain on their end.
Intel ships a TON of stuff. Huge volumes of chips. More than AMD. Shoot, their volume at times has exceeded what TSMC was capable of putting out. That will probably happen again with TSMC N2*. We will see, however.