Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

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DisEnchantment

Golden Member
Mar 3, 2017
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TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.




Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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FEEL FREE TO CREATE A NEW THREAD FOR 2025+ OUTLOOK, I WILL LINK IT HERE
 
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Thunder 57

Diamond Member
Aug 19, 2007
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Since they have lowered N2P perf I think 18AP if they move forward with the promise of 10% over 18A will match N2P cause this is sure that 18A is between N2 and N3P.

Maybe, but I'm tired of people hyping up the next big thing from Intel for it to disappoint. Other than Lunar Lake there seems to be a lot of that going on lately. Regarding nodes, it was "Wait until 10nm works!". Then it was Intel 4. Now it is 18A but that is looking less promising so now it is 18AP. I know desktop is largely an afterthought but I'd like to see a home run there as its been awhile. Maybe Alder Lake?
 

511

Golden Member
Jul 12, 2024
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Maybe, but I'm tired of people hyping up the next big thing from Intel for it to disappoint. Other than Lunar Lake there seems to be a lot of that going on lately. Regarding nodes, it was "Wait until 10nm works!". Then it was Intel 4. Now it is 18A but that is looking less promising so now it is 18AP. I know desktop is largely an afterthought but I'd like to see a home run there as its been awhile. Maybe Alder Lake?
18A is imo fine it's a very competitive node but without the ecosystem no external customer wants to use it. A good amount of Intel products are on 18A family.
  • Clearwater Forest
  • Panther Lake
  • Wild Cat Lake
  • Diamond Rapids(18AP)
  • Xe3P dGPU(18AP)
  • Some Nova lake SKUs(18AP)
As for disappointment the last good thing was Lunar Lake and before that was Alder Lake Raptor Lake was good but they botched it.
 
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511

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Which means the only Intel product on 18A up til that point will be Clearwater Forest and . . . Panther Lake? That paints an ugly picture for the rest of this year as well as the next.
Not really tbh DMR and NVL is confirmed to launch in H2 26 by Intel until they don't mess up also Panther Lake will be doing millions of units in 2026.
 

Thunder 57

Diamond Member
Aug 19, 2007
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Not really tbh DMR and NVL is confirmed to launch in H2 26 by Intel until they don't mess up also Panther Lake will be doing millions of units in 2026.

Many of which look to be on N2 now. Doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in 18A. I'd love to be wrong. It would be nice if Nvidia moved to Intel to free up some TSMC capacity. I don't know how realistic that is even if 18A is good though because Nvidia uses some massive dies.
 

LightningZ71

Platinum Member
Mar 10, 2017
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I may have missed it previously, but that's the first I've seen of N4C in something official. I didn't expect them to do a value node this quickly. Should be good for IO dies.

(EDIT: I Goofed, I meant N3C)
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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Not really tbh DMR and NVL is confirmed to launch in H2 26 by Intel until they don't mess up also Panther Lake will be doing millions of units in 2026.
From a foundry point-of-view, it doesn't seem possible for Diamond Rapids or Nova Lake to launch by that point if 18a-P is indeed delayed until 2027. Unless there's going to be low clockspeed variants of those chips (or something).
 

511

Golden Member
Jul 12, 2024
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From a foundry point-of-view, it doesn't seem possible for Diamond Rapids or Nova Lake to launch by that point if 18a-P is indeed delayed until 2027. Unless there's going to be low clockspeed variants of those chips (or something).
What? there is no delay of 18AP afaik where did you see the delay ? It's a '+' so the delay in it is unlikely unless 18A gets delayed.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,533
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What? there is no delay of 18AP afaik where did you see the delay ? It's a '+' so the delay in it is unlikely unless 18A gets delayed.
Semantics. 18a appears to be unusable for Nova Lake or Diamond Rapids due to leakage issues, pushing both products to 2027, at least in forms that customers might actually want to buy. That is the delay. Essentially, 18a-P is taking on the role that was intended for 18a.
 

511

Golden Member
Jul 12, 2024
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Semantics. 18a appears to be unusable for Nova Lake or Diamond Rapids due to leakage issues, pushing both products to 2027, at least in forms that customers might actually want to buy. That is the delay. Essentially, 18a-P is taking on the role that was intended for 18a.
Leakage issue ? I don't remember any leaks even reporting to it the only info i have is that for external 18A is missing many libraries and circuit simulation not working and stuff for the 1.0 PDK and 18A not being optimized for Mobile SOC.
18AP is going to save the day! 18AP is not far away! Stop being an Intel shill.
the real cope is 14A not 18AP now 🤣
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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Leakage issue ? I don't remember any leaks even reporting to it the only info i have is that for external 18A is missing many libraries and circuit simulation not working and stuff for the 1.0 PDK and 18A not being optimized for Mobile SOC.


According to speculation, Intel's Process Design Kit (PDK) for 18A is currently incomplete. According to the report, design libraries are missing for some applications, and leakage currents are said to be too high in some cases. This may mean that Intel is currently unable to produce high-clocked, high-performance CPUs with its current top-of-the-line process. High-performance libraries designed for high clock frequencies are required. These typically have larger cell blocks for higher current flows. The improved version, 18A-P, is expected to solve these problems starting in 2027.

The irony here is that if 18a isn't suitable for high-clockspeed designs due to leakage currents being too high at high fMax AND it also somehow isn't optimized for mobile SoCs, it may not be suitable for anything.
 

511

Golden Member
Jul 12, 2024
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The irony here is that if 18a isn't suitable for high-clockspeed designs due to leakage currents being too high at high fMax AND it also somehow isn't optimized for mobile SoCs, it may not be suitable for anything.
He said in the first line according to speculation also High performance Libraries for higher clocks are Intel's forte they have been doing this for like as long as I can remember. The only thing I can confirm is some libraries missing for some applications cause I have gotten same Info from couple of people.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,533
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He said in the first line according to speculation

Believe it or don't. It's not like Intel will admit to the problem this far out.

also High performance Libraries for higher clocks are Intel's forte they have been doing this for like as long as I can remember.

Right like the hp libraries for Intel 20a? Oh wait . . .
 

511

Golden Member
Jul 12, 2024
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Believe it or don't. It's not like Intel will admit to the problem this far out.
Yeah Intel will not admit in public but will admit to the customers who has their PDK with NDA.
Right like the hp libraries for Intel 20a? Oh wait . . .
You seem to forget Intel has always made Tall HPC lib even the most recent one with Intel 4 was initially HP Libs with Tall cells and only after that we got the shorter one.
For Intel 7 they added an extra tall cell libraries for even higher Drive Current with 60nm CPP.
It's in their DNA to make HP Focused lib.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,533
12,402
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You seem to forget Intel has always made Tall HPC lib even the most recent one with Intel 4 was initially HP Libs with Tall cells and only after that we got the shorter one.
For Intel 7 they added an extra tall cell libraries for even higher Drive Current with 60nm CPP.
It's in their DNA to make HP Focused lib.

What I haven't forgotten are the multiple quasi-functional (if not completely broken) nodes they've attempted and failed to release over the last ~8 years. Intel 10nm and 20a being the glaring examples. It doesn't matter if "it's in their DNA", if the node is busted then it's busted.
 
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