Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

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DisEnchantment

Golden Member
Mar 3, 2017
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TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.




Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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FEEL FREE TO CREATE A NEW THREAD FOR 2025+ OUTLOOK, I WILL LINK IT HERE
 
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511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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What I haven't forgotten are the multiple quasi-functional (if not completely broken) nodes they've attempted and failed to release over the last ~8 years. Intel 10nm and 20a being the glaring examples. It doesn't matter if "it's in their DNA", if the node is busted then it's busted.
10nm is another level of bust the OG 10nm was so bad that the iGPU was borked Cannon lake anyone.
I don't see 18A busted from the people I have talked to the only people dishing out such news is either they have very bad experience with PDK due to the fact it's literally missing feature which I get it or people who don't want Intel 18A to succeed.
Why won't they admit it to the stock market, sounds kind of very much material, especially if they tell publicly all is ok.
They care more about their internal products for which 18A has sufficient libs as for external pat publicly admitted he underestimated the EDA requirements. Also it would be bad for stock(personal opinion).

Also I found good news regarding 18A is it unbelievable now and it's coming out of Taiwan 😂

Intel's 18A process will introduce backside power delivery (BSPDN) technology ahead of TSMC’s A16, with the company targeting a 70% in-house production rate for its CPUs. According to supply chain sources, for the upcoming Panther Lake platform, the compute tile will adopt Intel’s 18A process, and even the next-generation Nova Lake compute tile will not be entirely outsourced.

ASIC company Faraday Technology (智原科技) noted that it taped out on the 18A platform in October last year and has since received samples, successfully achieving compatibility.

Intel’s “5 nodes in 4 years” strategy is beginning to show results. A Taiwanese ASIC firm working closely with Intel revealed that it recently received chip samples from last year’s tape-out using the 18A process earlier than expected and is currently in the testing phase, with validation results so far looking positive.

NVIDIA and Broadcom are also reportedly actively conducting manufacturing tests on Intel 18A.

According to supply chain reports, the compute tile in the Panther Lake platform, set to launch in the second half of this year, will use Intel’s in-house 18A process. The graphics tile and SoC tile will be outsourced to TSMC. For next year’s Nova Lake, outsourcing will expand, with some compute tiles to be produced using TSMC’s 2nm process, while others will still be manufactured in-house.

Industry insiders highlight that Intel 18A is the first to adopt the industry’s pioneering BSPDN technology, improving both density and cell utilization. In contrast, TSMC’s A16 process, which will feature similar technology, is not expected until the second half of next year.

This has made chipmakers eager to try Intel’s process, with price and geopolitics further driving interest.


 
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Win2012R2

Senior member
Dec 5, 2024
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They care more about their internal products for which 18A has sufficient libs as for external pat publicly admitted he underestimated the EDA requirements. Also it would be bad for stock.
If it's bad for stock AND they know it but don't disclose (because stock will drop) then it's criminal liability.

A18 was supposed to be first external node, so they say "they don't care about it" would mean they have misled market too.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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If it's bad for stock AND they know it but don't disclose (because stock will drop) then it's criminal liability.
They disclosed their challenges in Q3 24 call you can read the transcript

A18 was supposed to be first external node, so they say "they don't care about it" would mean they have misled market too.
Yes it is using Industry standard EDA as well but they didn't get any firm commitment from any external customer so what choice do they have?
It takes billions to ramp a fab TSMC Arizona which is fully booked had a loss of $430 million associated with ramping the fab.

They would prioritize internal volume and in parallel improve their tools there is no other way.

If someone finds their nodes suitable for use they are welcome to commit but doesn't mean they would jeopardize internal demand and commitment for external that has yet not materialized.
 

Thibsie

Golden Member
Apr 25, 2017
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If it's bad for stock AND they know it but don't disclose (because stock will drop) then it's criminal liability.

A18 was supposed to be first external node, so they say "they don't care about it" would mean they have misled market too.

That's theory. Intel and Nvidia have lied multiple times and to what outcome ?
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,563
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10nm is another level of bust the OG 10nm was so bad that the iGPU was borked Cannon lake anyone.
I don't see 18A busted from the people I have talked to the only people dishing out such news is either they have very bad experience with PDK due to the fact it's literally missing feature which I get it or people who don't want Intel 18A to succeed.
If 18a is inappropriate for an Fmax suitable for Panther Lake or Diamond Rapids, then it may as well be busted, even if the yields are better than what Intel was getting with all that cobalt in early 10nm. No idea what kind of clocks Faraday wanted for their ASICs but they may be pretty low.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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If 18a is inappropriate for an Fmax suitable for Panther Lake or Diamond Rapids, then it may as well be busted, even if the yields are better than what Intel was getting with all that cobalt in early 10nm. No idea what kind of clocks Faraday wanted for their ASICs but they may be pretty low.
We will see with PTL if it launches with 5+ Ghz with good battery life and powe characteristics.
 

511

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Jul 12, 2024
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If local government is dissolved or consumed TSMC will be as good as dissolved talent will remain as of IP it's going to be difficult to find the right owner.
 

Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
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If local government is dissolved or consumed TSMC will be as good as dissolved talent will remain as of IP it's going to be difficult to find the right owner.

Who says the talent would remain? Those who are OK with China taking over would stay, but most would leave.
 

jdubs03

Golden Member
Oct 1, 2013
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Rapidus could be a good bet. That is if Japan weren’t drawn in to the conflict.

Now it’s not gospel but I asked Nystedt if TSMC had any solidified contingency plans in case of an invasion, and he said he wasn’t aware of one. And that concerned and befuddled me as I was under the impression that they did (based on Chris Millers’ research). I mean they have to right?, just in case?
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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Rapidus is even worse than Intel foundry it is based on IBM Tech when was the last time we had a high volume node from IBM that is working.
 

jdubs03

Golden Member
Oct 1, 2013
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Rapidus is even worse than Intel foundry it is based on IBM Tech when was the last time we had a high volume node from IBM that is working.
What better option is there? Rapidus is at least close by geographically. Since we’re leaning toward an anti-US argument here, Intel seems unlikely, and TSMC in Arizona as well, though obviously that would be most realistic.
Intel's Foundry event is today what to expect?
  • More promises
  • Customer Announcement ?
  • Some actually good announcement?
Better show something or their share price will take a hit.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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What better option is there? Rapidus is at least close by geographically. Since we’re leaning toward an anti-US argument here, Intel seems unlikely, and TSMC in Arizona as well, though obviously that would be most realistic.
Geography doesn't matter when choice of tech is the worst bet ever.
Better show something or their share price will take a hit.
Yeah I hope they show actual good announcement.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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14A vs 18A 15-20% perf/watt and 1.3 Density so Intel will lag TSMC with A14 by 10% but will be 1 yearly if they don't mess up.

 
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