Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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marees

Golden Member
Apr 28, 2024
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So that swimlane is completely dead? Not generating enough revenue?

Seems like AMD has that market sewn up, don't understand why they'd retreat from there
As I see it there are 2 different markets

25w windows/xbox handhelds with 80w batteries — kraken's successor can perfectly fill this

Sub 15w steam deck successor — these are custom orders. Doesn't make economic sense to create them as a proper consumer release
 

LightningZ71

Platinum Member
Mar 10, 2017
2,179
2,641
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Medusa still strikes me as needing a bit too much juice to be IDEAL for the handheld market. Even with a new process, it's going to suffer in a sub 10w environment with the rumored core count. 3 watts for the iGPU and 3 watts for the CPU cores with 1W for extra system power doesn't give you a whole lot of performance to play with, even if you can dynamically rebalance power effectively and boost to 10. Above that, it should do well in the current generation of large, hefty handhelds. Granted, it should still be notably better than what's out there though.
 

marees

Golden Member
Apr 28, 2024
1,051
1,425
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Medusa still strikes me as needing a bit too much juice to be IDEAL for the handheld market. Even with a new process, it's going to suffer in a sub 10w environment with the rumored core count. 3 watts for the iGPU and 3 watts for the CPU cores with 1W for extra system power doesn't give you a whole lot of performance to play with, even if you can dynamically rebalance power effectively and boost to 10. Above that, it should do well in the current generation of large, hefty handhelds. Granted, it should still be notably better than what's out there though.
Quite possible that Microsoft would announce a zen6 & RDNA 5 based handheld next year (probably same performance as current series S)
 
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StefanR5R

Elite Member
Dec 10, 2016
6,445
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It is i wonder what's the purpose for it
To offer moar coars than are sensible in client, which is 8, not counting dedicated LP cores.

completely goofy
complicated
I'd say it is¹ only as goofy as it needs to be for the purpose, and not complicated at all compared with some already existing client CPUs.

________
¹) Read this as an "is" or as a "would be" at your leisure.
 

LightningZ71

Platinum Member
Mar 10, 2017
2,179
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If you are referring to the HXL tweet — this was only about a "Medusa Point 1". Also only about Medusa incarnations in the R5/R7/R9 tiers (that is, not in an R3 tier).
FWIW.
AMD hasn't had an R3 product that wasn't a DEEP die recovery product for OEMs since Mendocino. Wouldn't be totally shocked by a 2+2 or 2+2+2 part.
 

OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
550
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Why do you think that PTL is very expensive if anything it is going to be equal or cheaper than Arrow Lake H.
114mm2 is on 18A while it is expensive it is not that expensive as buying N4 Wafers not to mention TSMC has already hiked the price couple of times this year are you guys ignoring that?
54mm2 N3E silicon it is going to be slightly expensive and 49mm2 N6 Silicon this is dirt cheap and the rest two are passive that is just raw material. Include Advanced Packing as well which is not cheap though.
Arrow Lake H for Reference has every silicon made on TSMC so there goes Intel's foundry margin there is not a single Intel silicon except for the base die.
I think that once the total cost of ownership is included in 18A (it did cost more than a Ford class aircraft carrier to develop), that it is likely the most expensive process that has ever been developed. Additionally, the number of passes needed to achieve 18A makes every wafer more expensive (this goes for N2 as well to a lesser extent I believe).

Considering that a Zen 5 CCD on N4P is 71mm2, 114mm2 on 18A is a monster sized die.

Currently AMD's 71mm2 N4P part is more than a match for Intel's N3B part. It is no wonder that Intel is bleeding cash. What really surprises me is how some in this forum think it would be a good strategy for AMD to fall into as well. Just pay for the most expensive process money can buy and create a big die and sell it in volume?
Does AMD has something like thread director to schedule properly with P/C/LP-C?

Windows and scheduling correctly 🤣 they need modification or tuning to the scheduler to make this work.
I think it likely that the built in OS director will work quite well on Zen 6 for a couple of reasons:

1) AMD's cores are all universal in their base architecture
2) MS and Linux have experience now with Arrow Lake and are better equipped to handle the LP cores of any architecture now.
 
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511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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I think that once the total cost of ownership is included in 18A (it did cost more than a Ford class aircraft carrier to develop), that it is likely the most expensive process that has ever been developed. Additionally, the number of passes needed to achieve 18A makes every wafer more expensive (this goes for N2 as well to a lesser extent I believe).
If you include cost of ar&D and all the stuff than yes it is

Considering that a Zen 5 CCD on N4P is 71mm2, 114mm2 on 18A is a monster sized die.
You are forgetting strix point is 232.5+ mm2 of N4P monolithic Panther Lakes True competition not the single CCD.
Currently AMD's 71mm2 N4P part is more than a match for Intel's N3B part. It is no wonder that Intel is bleeding cash. What really surprises me is how some in this forum think it would be a good strategy for AMD to fall into as well. Just pay for the most expensive process money can buy and create a big die and sell it in volume?
You need to compare it to Intel 6+8 die also Z5 CCD is 69mm2 iirc.
I think it likely that the built in OS director will work quite well on Zen 6 for a couple of reasons:

1) AMD's cores are all universal in their base architecture
Even the base architecture is same the PnP characteristics are not.
 

Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
3,143
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I think that once the total cost of ownership is included in 18A (it did cost more than a Ford class aircraft carrier to develop), that it is likely the most expensive process that has ever been developed. Additionally, the number of passes needed to achieve 18A makes every wafer more expensive (this goes for N2 as well to a lesser extent I believe).

That R&D is a sunk cost at this point. Will 18A be profitable when you include the fixed cost component of that R&D (plus fab buildout etc.) in the per wafer costing? Probably not - even with great yields - because they don't have much in the way of customers. Since it is sunk cost what matters more immediately is whether it is profitable when you just consider the variable costs like the per wafer materials, chemicals, power, wages, equipment maintenance etc. On that basis they're easily profitable, even if their yields were the worst case rumors of being 50% or whatever it was earlier this year and never improved.

Now obviously you can't run your business on making huge investments, considering that a sunk cost, then disregarding that sunk cost when determining profitability. They've no doubt already sunk most of the fixed cost for 14A at this point, where the decisions come in are whether they go forward with 10A which likely has a lot of investment still required, or pull the plug. For the board not to pull the plug on 10A I think they need to show they can reach competitive yields with 18A, and/or better progress with 14A than 18A had at the same stage in its development. If there's a hard decision it would come next summer.
 
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Joe NYC

Diamond Member
Jun 26, 2021
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I think that once the total cost of ownership is included in 18A (it did cost more than a Ford class aircraft carrier to develop), that it is likely the most expensive process that has ever been developed. Additionally, the number of passes needed to achieve 18A makes every wafer more expensive (this goes for N2 as well to a lesser extent I believe).

Considering that a Zen 5 CCD on N4P is 71mm2, 114mm2 on 18A is a monster sized die.

Currently AMD's 71mm2 N4P part is more than a match for Intel's N3B part. It is no wonder that Intel is bleeding cash. What really surprises me is how some in this forum think it would be a good strategy for AMD to fall into as well. Just pay for the most expensive process money can buy and create a big die and sell it in volume?

Maybe a better identification would be "volume segment", and the N2 Zen 6 is not intended for that segment. It is intended for premium segments.
- Medusa 1 (which looks higher end than Strix Point)
- Medusa Halo
- Desktop Zan 6.
- EPYC

When Zen 6 and Zen 6x3d desktop go on sale, there will still be Zen 5 desktop and Zen 5x3d on sale. 9800x3d may by then be entering lower tier - "volume segment" while Zen 6 + x3d will be premium

In notebooks, the "volume segment" will have Medusa 2, which will be monolithic Kracken successor, most likely on N3P.

And before Zen 6, there will be another set of notebook CPUs, derivatives of Strix Point and Kracken. Olrak posted some 400 series SKUs on Twitter that might be Gorgon Point refresh. In other words, more volume parts that are on N4P.

So, there will be plenty of volume parts on sale that are not N2.
 

Joe NYC

Diamond Member
Jun 26, 2021
3,037
4,431
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That R&D is a sunk cost at this point. Will 18A be profitable when you include the fixed cost component of that R&D (plus fab buildout etc.) in the per wafer costing? Probably not - even with great yields - because they don't have much in the way of customers. Since it is sunk cost what matters more immediately is whether it is profitable when you just consider the variable costs like the per wafer materials, chemicals, power, wages, equipment maintenance etc. On that basis they're easily profitable, even if their yields were the worst case rumors of being 50% or whatever it was earlier this year and never improved.

Now obviously you can't run your business on making huge investments, considering that a sunk cost, then disregarding that sunk cost when determining profitability. They've no doubt already sunk most of the fixed cost for 14A at this point, where the decisions come in are whether they go forward with 10A which likely has a lot of investment still required, or pull the plug. For the board not to pull the plug on 10A I think they need to show they can reach competitive yields with 18A, and/or better progress with 14A than 18A had at the same stage in its development. If there's a hard decision it would come next summer.

The R+D are sunk cost, as you say, and already expensed. But one thing you did not mention is equipment depreciation. That is part of the expense. Cost of the equipment gets expensed through their depreciation, and this goes into the earnings statements. It is a big component for foundries.
 
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ToTTenTranz

Senior member
Feb 4, 2021
395
763
136
My issue with that CCD+APU R9 is I don't know who wants that exactly.
People looking toward high parallel CPU performance can get a (much) lower-cost IOD and 2x 12c CCDs. High-end laptop owners are probably going to use dGPUs anyway.

I guess laptop owners who want many CPU cores and a mediocre iGPU? With everything being GPU and NPU accelerated nowadays, who exactly wants such an unbalanced product? Unless AMD really wants to stick a N44 in every Ryzen laptop, which also sounds far-fetched because they've failed to do so for decades.


Despite @adroc_thurston insisting on this being legit, the leak for this becoming the blunt of AMD's APU offerings makes very little sense.



25w windows/xbox handhelds with 80w batteries — kraken's successor can perfectly fill this

It doesn't look like that 8CUs iGPU will be able to keep up with Strix Point's 16CUs at 18-25W.

It should comfortably outperform the Steam Deck at 9-12W especially if it keeps the clocks well above 2GHz at low power. AMD could also implement some low(ish)-hanging fruit like getting the NPU to access the iGPU's caches for fused FSR4. But gaming performance-wise this is hardly ever going to match Strix Point above 15W.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
2,099
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The R+D are sunk cost, as you say, and already expensed. But one thing you did not mention is equipment depreciation. That is part of the expense. Cost of the equipment gets expensed through their depreciation, and this goes into the earnings statements. It is a big component for foundries.
They already changed the depreciation to 8 years and tbhand the R&D and sunken cost can only be taken back by filling the fabs.
 
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