Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

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DisEnchantment

Golden Member
Mar 3, 2017
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TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.




Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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FEEL FREE TO CREATE A NEW THREAD FOR 2025+ OUTLOOK, I WILL LINK IT HERE
 
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Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
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31st December is sadly on time

It will obviously be a paper launch to push out a few this year so they can avoid accusations of being "late".

What matters will be how much volume they can deliver in H1 26 and if the performance is good enough that there's enough demand to soak up all the volume they can deliver.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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It will obviously be a paper launch to push out a few this year so they can avoid accusations of being "late".
Well we don't even know the exact date it's just guesswork but at worst case scenario it would be Meteor Lake(1st half of December) like or best case scenario Lunar Lake(End of September).
What matters will be how much volume they can deliver in H1 26 and if the performance is good enough that there's enough demand to soak up all the volume they can deliver.
Well they have empty fabs for 18A if they ramp too quickly they will incur losses. If ran too slow not enough volume so it's up to the demand. I feel they would again mispredict demand similar to MTL.
As for Performance it doesn't have MTL/ARL Uncore issue Should be good unlesd they mess up if anything the iGPU is a solid 40-60% improvement.
 
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Thibsie

Golden Member
Apr 25, 2017
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Too bad. I thought that 18A had very good yields.
Back to reality, huh?

Which means the said CPU has/had to be ported to tsmc if not already done -> cost, time, risk of pushing back further releases.

Well, Intel isn't safe yet.
 

poke01

Diamond Member
Mar 8, 2022
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If 18A fails then sad 🎻 🎵 for Intel.

IF it’s true what a useless company, seriously they destroyed American semiconductors.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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I just posted to view people's opinions I agree if 18A fails it would be doom for Intel.

Did someone thought Intel has turned to TSMC for production support for Panther Lake ?

Even if it's true it's most like referring to Nova Lake 18AP variant where it makes sense.
 

dttprofessor

Member
Jun 16, 2022
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When a 300mm chip was only worth $5,000, the chip factory was just a laborer. Now the price of 300mm chips is already $30,000, and the next generation is moving towards $50,000. Fabless will be the labor force in the next 10 years.

When a 300mm chip was only worth $5,000, the chip factory was just a laborer. Now the price of 300mm chips is already $30,000, and the next generation is moving towards $50,000. Fabless will be the labor force in the next 10 years.

Members are required to post in English. Not everyone is evidently capable of using translation, or are too lazy to do it. 🤣 Thanks for your understanding and cooperation.

Mod DAPUNISHER
 
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dttprofessor

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Jun 16, 2022
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The frequency of discussion about chips that have not yet entered QS is completely rumor.

The frequency of discussion about chips that have not yet entered QS is completely rumor.
 
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LightningZ71

Platinum Member
Mar 10, 2017
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IF they can't successfully clock 18A products (and the rumor leaves out which product at which density targets because you can push clocks by leaving some empty space around critical paths SOMETIMES) to 5Ghz AT PRESENT, it isn't the end of the world. There are still mid and lower stack items that don't have frequency targets that high that can still use that process to AT LEAST generate revenue from the foundry equipment until they can work out why they can't hit those frequencies in volume.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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IF they can't successfully clock 18A products (and the rumor leaves out which product at which density targets because you can push clocks by leaving some empty space around critical paths SOMETIMES) to 5Ghz AT PRESENT, it isn't the end of the world. There are still mid and lower stack items that don't have frequency targets that high that can still use that process to AT LEAST generate revenue from the foundry equipment until they can work out why they can't hit those frequencies in volume.
Earlier allegations about 18a indicated that it a). didn't have functioning hp libraries and b). it was somehow unsuitable for mobile processors. What b) really meant is anyone's guess. It might be suitable for something like Clearwater Forest which won't really hit high clocks anyway (probably) but definitely won't have the same characteristics as a mobile processor either. Unfortunately, Clearwater Forest may not have a bright future, especially if markets are deprioritizing cloud products and/or if it doesn't thoroughly trounce an older product like Turin dense at the time of its release.

In other words, 18a may only be good for a few products that are relatively niche. 18ap is supposedly going to fix everything. In 2027.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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Earlier allegations about 18a indicated that it a). didn't have functioning hp libraries and b). it was somehow unsuitable for mobile processors. What b) really meant is anyone's guess. It might be suitable for something like Clearwater Forest which won't really hit high clocks anyway (probably) but definitely won't have the same characteristics as a mobile processor either. Unfortunately, Clearwater Forest may not have a bright future, especially if markets are deprioritizing cloud products and/or if it doesn't thoroughly trounce an older product like Turin dense at the time of its release.
18A has both the libraries for HP/HD from the PDK Specs. You can take a look at Synopsys.
There are other missing libraries though.
In other words, 18a may only be good for a few products that are relatively niche. 18ap is supposedly going to fix everything. In 2027.
OmegaLOL 18AP is H2 26.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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18A has both the libraries for HP/HD from the PDK Specs. You can take a look at Synopsys.

Yet it can't hit 5 GHz? Some HP libraries huh?

OmegaLOL 18AP is H2 26.

Yeah sure.

Wait, I thought that 20A got canned because it was broken and vanilla 18A was supposed to fix that?

Imagine how bad 20a was to get to this point.

@poke01

(quoting wouldn't work for some reason)

Maybe Intel needs to make a Gaudi 4 for Apple on 18a? The worst of both worlds!
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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Yet it can't hit 5 GHz? Some HP libraries huh?
It may be based on ES1/ES2 not the final QS? Meteor Lake has the same rumor for clocks and it did reach 5.1 GHz.
What about the 2nd rumors they have outsourced CPUs to TSMC if that is true than PTL us launching Q1 27.
Yeah sure.
It's a '+' node lol not a full fledge node unlike 18A/Intel 4.
Intel 3/14nm++/10++?
Maybe Intel needs to make a Gaudi 4 for Apple on 18a? The worst of both worlds!
🤣🤣
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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It may be based on ES1/ES2 not the final QS? Meteor Lake has the same rumor for clocks and it did reach 5.1 GHz.

This rumour is for the node as a whole, not just a single product (Panther Lake).

It's a '+' node lol not a full fledge node unlike 18A/Intel 4.

10nm+ was also a plus node. See how long it took to come out (2019 instead of 2017). 18a may not be THAT broken, but it certainly seems to be broken.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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This rumour is for the node as a whole, not just a single product (Panther Lake).
This is for a particular design if we go by this metric of 5 Ghz Apple M4 is broken on N3E cause it can't hit 5 ghz? Design matters as well and we have yet to see actual final product on 18A.
10nm+ was also a plus node. See how long it took to come out (2019 instead of 2017). 18a may not be THAT broken, but it certainly seems to be broken.
Can we please stop comparing everything to 10nm if you want to do it compare properly make it 3+ year. OG 10nm was scrapped(cannon lake) and the 10nm+(Ice lake) was the the replacement 10nm+ and the 10nm++(TGL) was the actual plus .
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,609
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This is for a particular design if we go by this metric of 5 Ghz Apple M4 is broken on N3E cause it can't hit 5 ghz? Design matters as well and we have yet to see actual final product on 18A.

No, the RUMOUR isn't for any particular design. "A CPU" could be anything, and to date, Panther Lake is probably the highest Fmax design Intel has attempted on 18a. Unless you really believe Intel specifically designed for a lower Fmax, which while possible, seems highly unlikely. As for M4, Apple is only now chasing clocks close to what the x86 world has been hitting for years, which is a clear design choice on their part. Even N3B can hit clocks that high as Intel has already demonstrated.

Can we please stop comparing everything to 10nm
Probably not.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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No, the RUMOUR isn't for any particular design. "A CPU" could be anything, and to date, Panther Lake is probably the highest Fmax design Intel has attempted on 18a. Unless you really believe Intel specifically designed for a lower Fmax, which while possible, seems highly unlikely. As for M4, Apple is only now chasing clocks close to what the x86 world has been hitting for years, which is a clear design choice on their part. Even N3B can hit clocks that high as Intel has already demonstrated.
It's an Intel designed CPU and last I checked they design high clock CPUs and x86 for the majority.

If Intel designed for 4.7Ghz that is a regressed product. It is a ES1/ES2 that doesn't reach full clocks and the 5% is pure false rumors spread by Taiwanese Media.
I wouldn't believe a single rumor out of TW and returns regarding Intel.
Probably not.
LoL you didn't answer the Proper comparison part.
 
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