Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

GodisanAtheist · 2025-05-22T00:10:00-0400

Weird ghost post.

Anyhow, as always don't trust anything Trump says cause it ain't worth shit. Looks like we went through a whole hope and bust cycle in the first half of May as is tradition with Trump. Minerals deal to pussyfooting around nailing Putin down. Classic rug pull. 10/10 would watch people be bamboozled again.

We're on the outer end of Trump's attention span at this point. Trump usually has about 3-6 months of shits to give about anything before getting bored and dropping the whole thing. His inability to "close the deal" and Putin's intrangisence are going to have him walking away pretty soon.

Hope Ukraine is stocked up when that happens (or hopefully Rubio finds his fucking balls again and starts assisting Ukraine unimpeded but fat chance with that).

JTsyo · 2025-05-22T09:47:41-0400

On the Combat Footage subreddit there's a noticeable drop in Ukraine striking Russian vehicles. Almost all the drone footage is of them going after infantry. It could point to a significant drop in Russian armored vehicles. Another possibility is Russia is saving up for a massive summer offensive. Putin has claimed to finish capturing the 4 regions by the end of this year. We'll see what kind of forces that have to accomplish that.

fskimospy · 2025-05-22T09:53:04-0400

JTsyo said:
On the Combat Footage subreddit there's a noticeable drop in Ukraine striking Russian vehicles. Almost all the drone footage is of them going after infantry. It could point to a significant drop in Russian armored vehicles. Another possibility is Russia is saving up for a massive summer offensive. Putin has claimed to finish capturing the 4 regions by the end of this year. We'll see what kind of forces that have to accomplish that.

Pretty sure he has claimed that every year.

They could be saving up forces for a big push but their tank production is not large and so I’m not sure how much saving up there is to do.

Obviously just a guess on my part but they seem to have shifted tactics as a force preservation measure as their loss rates before were wildly unsustainable.

DZero · 2025-05-22T15:14:57-0400

JTsyo said:
On the Combat Footage subreddit there's a noticeable drop in Ukraine striking Russian vehicles. Almost all the drone footage is of them going after infantry. It could point to a significant drop in Russian armored vehicles. Another possibility is Russia is saving up for a massive summer offensive. Putin has claimed to finish capturing the 4 regions by the end of this year. We'll see what kind of forces that have to accomplish that.

I don't think that is that... maybe is worse... something really worse.
Considering the alliance Putin/Trump, I don't be surprised if Putin first attacks Kiev, while Trump leaves NATO and then Putin attack Finland (and the nordics)

Brovane · 2025-05-22T15:29:04-0400

DZero said:
I don't think that is that... maybe is worse... something really worse.
Considering the alliance Putin/Trump, I don't be surprised if Putin first attacks Kiev, while Trump leaves NATO and then Putin attack Finland (and the nordics)

Finland has been preparing for Decades for the Russians to attack.

Jaskalas · 2025-05-22T16:03:07-0400

Brovane said:
Finland has been preparing for Decades for the Russians to attack.

5 million people.
They can prepare all they like, they wouldn't last very long.

Even if the entire Nordic region united in combat, they'd have 20 million. Half the fight Ukraine has given.

DZero · 2025-05-22T16:07:13-0400

Jaskalas said:
5 million people.
They can prepare all they like, they wouldn't last very long.

Even if the entire Nordic region united in combat, they'd have 20 million. Half the fight Ukraine has given.

Poland enters too. That is a BIG change. Now that's 60 million and is unknown if they don't have any nuke advancements. So if at the end one of them ends having nukes...

Brovane · 2025-05-22T16:38:34-0400

Jaskalas said:
5 million people.
They can prepare all they like, they wouldn't last very long.

Even if the entire Nordic region united in combat, they'd have 20 million. Half the fight Ukraine has given.

Are you familiar with the Terrain along the Finnish/Russian border?

JTsyo · 2025-05-22T16:45:13-0400

Jaskalas said:
5 million people.
They can prepare all they like, they wouldn't last very long.

Even if the entire Nordic region united in combat, they'd have 20 million. Half the fight Ukraine has given.

But Russians are fighting in Ukraine right now and struggling. How do they free up enough forces for a second front? It'll take Russia likely a decade to build back the losses from the current war.

K1052 · 2025-05-22T16:45:30-0400

JTsyo said:
On the Combat Footage subreddit there's a noticeable drop in Ukraine striking Russian vehicles. Almost all the drone footage is of them going after infantry. It could point to a significant drop in Russian armored vehicles. Another possibility is Russia is saving up for a massive summer offensive. Putin has claimed to finish capturing the 4 regions by the end of this year. We'll see what kind of forces that have to accomplish that.

AFU instituted a bonus points system for drone operators taking out verifiable targets. Infantry was originally only worth one point then they raised it to six (damaging a tank is 20). As a result FPV strikes on Russian personnel have skyrocketed. So they more or less gamified the liquidation of the Russian horde.

K1052 · 2025-05-22T16:49:42-0400

Brovane said:
Are you familiar with the Terrain along the Finnish/Russian border?

Attacking a country that has done nothing but think about and prepare for this exact eventuality for the last 50+ years is certainly a choice that Putin could make. Not saying it's a good one.

Also when the Russians start bombing Helsinki the Finns are going to burn down St. Petersburg....something they were not able to do in the 40s.

DZero · 2025-05-22T16:55:46-0400

K1052 said:
Attacking a country that has done nothing but think about and prepare for this exact eventuality for the last 50+ years is certainly a choice that Putin could make. Not saying it's a good one.

Also when the Russians start bombing Helsinki the Finns are going to burn down St. Petersburg....something they were not able to do in the 40s.

Actually if Putin attempts to pull this is likely to end awfully bad for them and his allies.
And even with Trump on his side, it would backfire even worse for both since it means become enemies with China and China already has people inside Russia.

K1052 · 2025-05-22T16:59:30-0400

DZero said:
Actually if Putin attempts to pull this is likely to end awfully bad for them and his allies.
And even with Trump on his side, it would backfire even worse for both since it means become enemies with China and China already has people inside Russia.

Attacking the Nordics is a terrible idea since they could easily close the Baltic Sea to Russian shipping and stop all exports from their largest oil port. The consequences for the Russian state budget would be immediately disastrous.

RnR_au · 2025-05-22T17:11:03-0400

Jaskalas said:
5 million people.
They can prepare all they like, they wouldn't last very long.

NATO trained combined armed forces vs untrained shit troops. At this point, the only thing Russia has up on NATO forces is drone experience, and that would be a short task for the home of Nokia, Saab, etc.

Pens1566 · 2025-05-22T17:45:26-0400

I'm not concerned about either of Poland or Finland holding their own against what's left of the Russian military. I'd throw the Baltics in there as well.

The main difference between them and Ukraine (prior to the original Russian invasion in '22) is that they've all been preparing for that exact eventuality for DECADES.

you2 · 2025-05-22T19:02:48-0400

The weakest point of course is Moldova who made the horrible mistake of trying to appease Russia by avoiding NATO. Also I think it is time for the EU to put an end to the various Russian conclave which were mostly created out of illegal land grabs.

Jaskalas · 2025-05-23T02:48:16-0400

JTsyo said:
But Russians are fighting in Ukraine right now and struggling. How do they free up enough forces for a second front? It'll take Russia likely a decade to build back the losses from the current war.

Well, since literally no one is going to bother attacking Russia while they are weak and preoccupied....
Russia would just have to conclude things in Ukraine first. Gain some 10 million surviving slaves to serve as meat for the next country.
Which, to be fair to Finland, is probably not them.

But these hostilities are clearly at a place and a time of Russia's choosing.
Now they are battle hardened with years of experience and improvements since 2022.
And their economy is fully militarized. Russia currently exists to fuel a total war.

When the largest country in Europe devours the second largest, it isn't ever going to stop there.
Unless we make damn certain that Ukraine survives this.
This stalemated war of attrition is not raising my hopes that anyone actually cares enough to stop Russia. So that we can stop the NEXT war before it begins.

Europe is half arsed asleep, slow walking (at best) any response this threat. No one actually seems to be taking it seriously.

DZero · 2025-05-23T09:42:57-0400

you2 said:
The weakest point of course is Moldova who made the horrible mistake of trying to appease Russia by avoiding NATO. Also I think it is time for the EU to put an end to the various Russian conclave which were mostly created out of illegal land grabs.

Indeed, but even that remember that Moldova and Romania are friends and the story would be radically different this time.

And even if Hungary enters to help Russia, the rest of NATO would transform Hungary in the next Paraguay from the Paraguayan War. Even if the big names don't want, some others would want to end them for good.

you2 · 2025-05-23T13:07:31-0400

Jaskalas said:
Europe is half arsed asleep, slow walking (at best) any response this threat. No one actually seems to be taking it seriously.

Not quite that simple but of course it is easy to say shit when you don't have to eat shit.

outriding · 2025-05-23T13:09:28-0400

Jaskalas said:
5 million people.
They can prepare all they like, they wouldn't last very long.

Even if the entire Nordic region united in combat, they'd have 20 million. Half the fight Ukraine has given.

If I remember correctly Finland has an agreement with Sweden and Sweden will come to their aid.

Brovane · 2025-05-23T13:23:14-0400

Jaskalas said:
Europe is half arsed asleep, slow walking (at best) any response this threat. No one actually seems to be taking it seriously.

Do you count Poland, Baltic States, Finland and Sweden in your comment "No one actually seems to be taking it seriously."?

Jaskalas · 2025-05-23T13:32:41-0400

Brovane said:
Do you count Poland, Baltic States, Finland and Sweden in your comment "No one actually seems to be taking it seriously."?

We likely have a very different view of what it is going to take to stop Russia from consuming Ukraine, and then on to the next nation.
That Ukraine still fights alone, that airspace is still open, that ships can even sail to Russia.
That a few hundred billion in frozen assets have not been utilized for our side against Russia.

Change your passivity in this conflict. Do it all.
My message to Europe, end the Russian invasion before they arrive at the border of someone you actually care about.

Brovane · 2025-05-23T13:45:05-0400

Jaskalas said:
We likely have a very different view of what it is going to take to stop Russia from consuming Ukraine, and then on to the next nation.
That Ukraine still fights alone, that airspace is still open, that ships can even sail to Russia.
That a few hundred billion in frozen assets have not been utilized for our side against Russia.

Change your passivity in this conflict. Do it all.
My message to Europe, end the Russian invasion before they arrive at the border of someone you actually care about.

So you think Poland, Baltic States, Finland and Sweden are not treating the Russian threat seriously?

fskimospy · 2025-05-23T14:04:04-0400

Brovane said:
So you think Poland, Baltic States, Finland and Sweden are not treating the Russian threat seriously?

For real - Poland is spending a greater percentage of its GDP on defense than the US does. They know what's up.

balloonshark · 2025-05-23T14:07:11-0400

A youtuber was saying that Ukraine sent sent hundreds of drones into russia yesterday. So many that they had to quit flying commercial airlines in western russia again. Anyone hearing he same thing?

Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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