Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,476
45,119
136
Did the war end? Dance ain't over. Results sometimes take awhile when you're dealing with a dictator who is hard to remove and doesn't give a shit about his countrymen.

Those economists were largely correct; the collapse is just still in motion. It's a big country, takes awhile to complete even just one full trip around the drain. Things move faster when you have a ruler that gives a shit about his people, which isn't Putin. I recall pretty much everyone acknowledging Putin had put together a 'rainy day fund' for Russia to help weather the West's response, I don't remember anyone ever attaching dates to when Russia would keel over.

The ruble is toilet paper, infrastructure continues to crumble, exports are shit. Putin is taxing the hell out of broke people, and they have fewer and fewer professionals in every field by the month. Weren't they just pleading with the Kazhaks and Azeri for cheaper onions, cabbage and potatoes a few weeks ago? And now thanks to OPEC the price of oil is going to keep falling.

It's less impressive when you keep in mind Putin's got the entire population scared of going to prison and keeps a private army handy for any possible Maidans.

I suppose anything is possible when you've got desperate leaders in China and NK, but I'll be impressed if the Russian Army can still fight in 5 months.
 
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you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
6,634
1,656
136
I recall pretty much everyone acknowledging Putin had put together a 'rainy day fund' for Russia to help weather the West's response, I don't remember anyone ever attaching dates to when Russia would keel over.
There was an interview on NPR today (May 26 2025) that covered whether cutting down on Russia oil revenue would have an impact a few things noted:
Tariff suggestions by Trump is non-sense (the stated amount is 500% on those who buy Russian oil; which would effectively cut off trade with India and China - something Trump isn't going to do for obvious reasons).... who would have guessed....
Stricter enforcement against the shadow fleet would probably be effective
Russia has burned through 2/3 of their raining day funds (sovereignty wealth) and with the drop in oil price this would likely be exhausted by the end of the year...
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,476
45,119
136
Mischa Flynn the foreign agent is a full on Russian errand boy, of course he's going to stump for Putin. Think Tucker Carlson but without the family fortune.

A Trump sucking traitor calling Zelenskyy a crook, now that's funny. DIAF Mischa Flynn, same for your insurrection loving treasonous brother.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,549
44,098
136
Wow I had no idea crude oil was that low now. Gas and heating oil prices should be cheaper than they are now-cheapest gas remotely near me is $2.80 and heating oil is $2.67. At these crude prices we should be having covid era prices.

COVID price collapse was much deeper and surplus supply much larger. High refining margins and low stocks also keeping product prices elevated from what I've read.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,549
44,098
136
Also reportedly the current Russian state budget is predicated on a Urals price of near $70. So if this continues and/or the Euros lower the price cap they will be having more problems.
 
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DZero

Golden Member
Jun 20, 2024
1,157
407
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As I said earlier, Europe needs to correct its passivity by:
  • Assist Ukraine in combat.
  • Naval and Air blockade.
  • Frozen funds given to Ukraine and/or the war effort.
I view our prospects as more more dim if Ukraine falls.
And if your suggestion is that there is no force to combat Russia, well then... that would just go to show that Europe needs Ukraine more than ever. Ukraine IS that force and they are currently engaged. Those nations who wish to see a better future need to rush in and plug the gap. Make a difference while the defenses still hold. To defeat the enemy in combat. Now - while you still can.

I demand the same of America, but we are more for the enemy than not - these days.
Europe can fall easily since is not fully united, only Poland, the Baltics and Nordics are together. The rest, not so much. Even Croatia and the balcanics (except Serbia of course) being united won't be enough and are far too. The issue in Europe is that there is Hungary, East Germany and Slovakia who wants to unite with Serbia and fully break Europe from inside.

The issue? Has neighbours to wants to transform them into the next Paraguay after said war in demographics terms. Specially Croatia against Serbia and now Romania vs Hungary.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
25,457
14,967
136
Europe can fall easily since is not fully united, only Poland, the Baltics and Nordics are together. The rest, not so much. Even Croatia and the balcanics (except Serbia of course) being united won't be enough and are far too. The issue in Europe is that there is Hungary, East Germany and Slovakia who wants to unite with Serbia and fully break Europe from inside.

The issue? Has neighbours to wants to transform them into the next Paraguay after said war in demographics terms. Specially Croatia against Serbia and now Romania vs Hungary.
We are still Nato the vast majority of us, and used to work together, so....
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
25,543
11,928
136
Wow I had no idea crude oil was that low now. Gas and heating oil prices should be cheaper than they are now-cheapest gas remotely near me is $2.80 and heating oil is $2.67. At these crude prices we should be having covid era prices.
WA state fixed that by adding 6 more cents to the state gas tax. Oye. And if you own a diesel it's already penalized.
Always the worst form of taxation. Must spare our wealthy intelligencia.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,264
9,449
136
So when you say assist Ukraine in Combat what do you mean?
You oppose the premise that European nations can or should directly militarily intervene in protecting Ukraine.
But you want details on what exactly that could entail?
  • Hunting down every Russian ship and aircraft outside of Russia is a start.
  • Deploying military in Ukraine to hold the rear, manage logistics is another.
  • Air cap over Ukraine, shoot down anything not ours.
  • Destroy the Kerch Bridge.
  • Air strike Russian positions in Ukraine.
This is a war. I am talking about fighting that war. But we can simply say you oppose the idea and move on from there. Clearly Europe agrees that they should not, or cannot, fight Russia.
Despite Russia's invasion and Genocide of the Ukrainian people on NATO's doorstep. Russia has violated the concept of a buffer zone by invading it. We need to step up and move in.
That's the basic disagreement here. Strongest move Europe can make is ensuring Ukrainian victory. This war of attrition is not helping.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,264
9,449
136
Trump likes to brag. Only... in doing so, he often forgets to keep up the big lie.

Such as this, Trump basically admits he is directly protecting Russia.

“What Putin doesn't realize is that if it weren't for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He's playing with fire!” — Trump
 
Jul 27, 2020
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  • Air strike Russian positions in Ukraine.
It bewilders me why this hasn't happened since the beginning of the war. If it's Ukraine territory, Ukranians have the right to blast that place to smithereens if the enemy is there. Should've been the policy from day one. Yes, it would've destroyed their own cities, towns etc. but it would've sent a very strong message to Russia. Russian troops being where they have no business being? BOOM!
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,139
2,411
136
You oppose the premise that European nations can or should directly militarily intervene in protecting Ukraine.
But you want details on what exactly that could entail?
  • Hunting down every Russian ship and aircraft outside of Russia is a start.
  • Deploying military in Ukraine to hold the rear, manage logistics is another.
  • Air cap over Ukraine, shoot down anything not ours.
  • Destroy the Kerch Bridge.
  • Air strike Russian positions in Ukraine.
This is a war. I am talking about fighting that war. But we can simply say you oppose the idea and move on from there. Clearly Europe agrees that they should not, or cannot, fight Russia.
Despite Russia's invasion and Genocide of the Ukrainian people on NATO's doorstep. Russia has violated the concept of a buffer zone by invading it. We need to step up and move in.
That's the basic disagreement here. Strongest move Europe can make is ensuring Ukrainian victory. This war of attrition is not helping.

This is the problem when you have two nuclear powers potentially engaging in direct conventional conflict, things can very quickly spiral out of control. Nuclear Weapons are so immensely destructive a country can be totally destroyed by their use. A country beat by conventional means, can pick itself up and maybe eventually recover, however a nation can be totally destroyed by nuclear weapons. Some people will survive, but whatever emerges will have nothing in common with what existed before. European countries realize that anything they do directly against Russia has a serious risk of initiating a chain of events that will eventually lead to a nuclear holocaust. In a lot of ways this leads to strategic paralysis. That is why Pakistan and India while they will randomly sometimes attack each other, things really never get out of control because they both know each side has a nuclear arsenal capable of completely destroying the other.

Let's look at your examples.

  • Hunting down every Russian ship and aircraft outside of Russia is a start. That is out, could quickly spiral out of control. Just look at the Cuban Missile crisis and the US never actually destroyed any Soviet Ships. That was when the US and the Soviet Union didn't have a thousand plus ICBM's on alert.
  • Deploying military in Ukraine to hold the rear, manage logistics is another. This is kind of possible, I thought France was going to go this route but backed off until there is a peace treaty. I am not sure if the US warned them off or not. Or from a logistical perspective it just might be very difficult for the French to support a couple of brigades in Ukraine. This is the only one that I think is remotely feasible.
  • Air cap over Ukraine, shoot down anything not ours. The European nations don't have the capability to do this without US support and they are not going to get it.
  • Destroy the Kerch Bridge. What is gained? Bridge isn't that important anymore and if it was just give the Ukrainians the weapons and kit to do it. Much easier than direct NATO intervention.
  • Air strike Russian positions in Ukraine. Once again, power projection. I doubt Europe has the capability to deploy significant airwings with NATO pilots and NATO support into Ukraine without US logistical support which they will not get. NATO airfields in Romania and Poland are just to far back and nobody in NATO wants to give the Russians a excuse to lob something directly at NATO airfields. I expect that at some point some NATO countries probably asked during the Biden administration and this was quietly shootdown(No Pun Intended). Wouldn't have been a bad deal for European NATO pilots to get experience. Even if they could free-up Ukrainian pilots for front line duties while NATO pilots did air defense behind the lines.

This still doesn't solve the problem that the EU is a economic organization not a military organization. Any idea that the EU is going to go on a direct military intervention in Ukraine really leads through NATO and the US will not allow it. This is exactly how the US wants it. The US since WW2 hasn't wanted Europe banding together as a military organization without the US involved. Now that the current Orange regime has turned all of this on it's head, Europe is re-thinking this arrangement but that still doesn't change that as of right now, there is no European specific military organization that doesn't have the US and it's capabilities at the center. The only thing that Europe has close to this is the European Rapid Reaction Force and that was just Italy, France, Portugal and Spain and was a 12,000 strong basically peacekeeping force not equipped for conventional military fighting like in Ukraine.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,549
44,098
136


So German money is funding production of Long Neptune and probably Hrim-2 I guess.

Another part of the announcement sounds like Germany will probably be supplying parts and tools for Ukraine to ramp production. For his part Merz may be interested in these systems or ones developed from them for Germany eventually. With the country getting deep into the missile business lately it would make sense.
 
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