Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
571
807
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Developing Zen 5 for 2 nodes is like pain in the ass for AMD, not sure if they'd like to do it again.
That's the best argument I have heard so far.

Still, if you look at the billions they would save on a less expensive node, they might consider it well worth the trouble.

I still think the most likely factor in AMD either using N3P or N2 for consumer processors will be how well they believe Panther and Nova Lake perform.

I am sure it won't be a decision based on technical merit. It will be a business decision.
 
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511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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i heard it's 11% more expensive than N2 which matches your figure but the advantage for N3P is fabrication time it is faster to churn out N3P wafer than it is to N2 wafer and N3P yields are better than N2 as of rn.
 

LightningZ71

Platinum Member
Mar 10, 2017
2,210
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So do the "poverty parts" go on the recently mentioned N3C node, or are they going to push for a matured N3E or just push for a long term part on the N3P?
 

Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
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If you wanted to run two nodes for a modern design to save money on fabricating the lower end I think you'd do N2 and N4P not N2 and N3P. The savings are bigger with N4P and while you make bigger sacrifices in area and clock/power that's perfect for lower end parts. They have fewer cores and lower clocks so the compromise costs you nothing in terms of product offerings. Plus designing in N4P is cheaper than designing in N3P. Win win win!

Of course if you're going to do that then why bother redesigning the lower end parts at all, just sell Zen 5 into that market (which is what I think they'll do)
 
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StefanR5R

Elite Member
Dec 10, 2016
6,462
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In this video hardware unboxed seems to hint about new AM5 cpu coming in Q3, multiple times infact
Any ideas what could be incoming ?

Strix Halo on AM5 ?
Fire Range SKU's ?
Dual X3D CCD "9960X3D" ?

View attachment 124370
Hard to say if this is the right thread to continue, but...
Computerbase reports that mainboard makers told them at Computex that CUDIMM support is coming, presumably with a new cIOD. Which datarates will be supported then is not yet fixed.
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
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Hard to say if this is the right thread to continue, but...
Computerbase reports that mainboard makers told them at Computex that CUDIMM support is coming, presumably with a new cIOD. Which datarates will be supported then is not yet fixed.
Could this be where Kepler's earlier rumour about Zen 6 needing new ram came from? I think he speculated on it being LPCAMM2 ram and therefore needing a 2027 release date. Or maybe its Zen 6 mobile that needs LPCAMM2... which could fit a 2027 release window if desktop is released in h2 2026?

CUDIMM support makes sense though.
 

reaperrr3

Member
May 31, 2024
103
317
96
Fair enough; however, believing that N2 would be used for ALL Zen 6 markets flies in the face of history and common sense.
Nobody said, that, though?
The monolithic 4+4+8CU APU will apparently use N3P, and also serve as IOD for the Strix successor.
In other words, it's going to be the highest-volume part of the generation, as mobile nowadays eclipses the latest desktop gen in volume.
N2 will ALSO be limited in supply, expensive, and lower yield than N3.
N3 was a completely new process vs. N5/4.

N2 is mostly just GAA transistors on the N3E/P BEOL, so if they got GAA transistors under control, there's no reason for a significantly lower yield or significantly higher prices.

Also, supply shouldn't be an issue.
TSMC isn't GlobalFoundries, if a process is promising and has high demand, they ramp it up rather quickly.
If demand for N3E/P came in below expectations, they can probably convert N3E/P lines to N2 relatively quickly and easily.

Performance/high-end desktop is also a drop in the pond in terms of volume, and the bulk of demand will be for 1-CCD models like the 10800X3D, where the CCD is only like 75-80mm², so you get a ton of them out of a wafer.

DC volume usually also ramps up very slowly for new products, since there's a lot more validation and longer decision-making processes before demand really picks up, so I don't see a slow ramp of Venice as that much of a problem, either.

And like I pointed out before, a good chunk of mobile demand will actually be covered by that N3P 8C APU.
Best speculation I have seen in this thread for some time .

I tend to disagree though. I think it more likely that we will see:

Zen 6 10950X
12c CCD x2 = 24 (full Zen 6) + 4 LP Zen 6c on IOD
N3P
2026 Q2
$699
Multiple people with access to official internal AMD slides have clearly stated that

- the CCD will be N2
- the IOD will have only 2 LP cores

The logical conclusion is that
- maximum core config can be 26 cores (2x12 +2)
- Zen6 will be a H2 (probably Q4) product, since N2 HVM only starts in H2
- the 2xCCD models will likely only arrive in 2027, if Zen5 is any indication
- as both the IOD and CCD will be made on costlier processes than their predecessor and TSMC raised prices on top of that, I don't see the 950X launching at such a low price

My desktop line-up expectation kind of goes like this:

Zen6 desktop launch:

10700X
12+2 (12 from N2 CCD, 2 from N4C IOD)
105W
2026 Sept, Oct or Nov
$429
~9800X3D perf in games, much faster in everything else

10600X
8+2
65W
2026 Sept, Oct or Nov
$299
~15-30% faster than 9700X in everything, especially games (because 50% bigger L3)

January 2027 (after CES announcement):

10800X3D

12+2+VCache
105-120W
$599

Spring 2027:

10950X
24 (2x12) + 2
170W
$749-799

10900X
16 or 20 + 2
120W
$649

10950X3D
24 + 2 + VCache (maybe under both CCDs?)
120W
$999
 

OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
571
807
106
N2 is mostly just GAA transistors on the N3E/P BEOL, so if they got GAA transistors under control, there's no reason for a significantly lower yield or significantly higher prices.
N2 GAA is a pretty big change from N3E. I believe that your assumption that isn't comes only from the fact that the same class of lithography machine is used to create both. I believe that the changes are so significant between N3E and N2 that we will surely see a loss of yield for quite some time .... if not indefinitely .... over N3E simply due to the larger number of steps in the process.

The process time will most certainly be longer per wafer.
i heard it's 11% more expensive than N2 which matches your figure but the advantage for N3P is fabrication time it is faster to churn out N3P wafer than it is to N2 wafer and N3P yields are better than N2 as of rn.
N2 ~ 30K/wafer
N3E ~20K/wafer

Quite a bit more expensive than 10%. Do you have information that suggest otherwise? There was copious amounts of media on the 30K/wafer pricing when it came out, and N3E is well documented. My assumption is that N3P will be about the same as N3E.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
2,184
1,874
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N2 GAA is a pretty big change from N3E. I believe that your assumption that isn't comes only from the fact that the same class of lithography machine is used to create both. I believe that the changes are so significant between N3E and N2 that we will surely see a loss of yield for quite some time .... if not indefinitely .... over N3E simply due to the larger number of steps in the process.

The process time will most certainly be longer per wafer.

N2 ~ 30K/wafer
N3E ~20K/wafer

Quite a bit more expensive than 10%. Do you have information that suggest otherwise? There was copious amounts of media on the 30K/wafer pricing when it came out, and N3E is well documented. My assumption is that N3P will be about the same as N3E.

Whoever Is saying this is joking for 30K wafer it may be true for 14A. N2 is just 11% premium over N3P when I last checked also N3P has some premium over N3E based on the improved PPA. Can't tell you the exact price cause I don't either but you can expect 24-25K per wafer for N2.
 
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511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
2,184
1,874
106
It is basically N3P design rules but GAA, remember that N16 was basically N20 but FinFET.
Same deal here, and A16 is N2P with BSPDN.
A14 is completely new, N2 family is heavily N3 derived.
Yes but at that time N16 was not so complex compared to N20 if you compare N3E to N2.
 

bearmoo

Junior Member
May 8, 2018
15
21
81
It is basically N3P design rules but GAA, remember that N16 was basically N20 but FinFET.
Same deal here, and A16 is N2P with BSPDN.
A14 is completely new, N2 family is heavily N3 derived.
Back in late 2018, Vega 20 was the first chip to come out along with a couple of phone socs on N7, which was as big of a jump as N2 is supposed to be. I don't understand why some people keep repeating the same old talking points, that N2 is too expensive bla bla, as if they actually know any hard data point.
 
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dr1337

Senior member
May 25, 2020
470
765
136
Developing Zen 5 for 2 nodes is like pain in the ass for AMD, not sure if they'd like to do it again.
They did this so its the opposite of a pain for them. Instead of having one big engineering team only focus on one node, they can get experience and time on advanced nodes that will wind up being bog standard in a year or two. Also they have a customer base for the dense dies, and fabbing them on a bigger process where they'd get lower yields only makes sense if like they had some urgency to it.

And moving engineers around has got to be easier than starting at scratch every time TSMC releases a new node to AMD. But depending on how TSMC is doing things, maybe N2 is getting ramped way harder and faster than previous nodes and it just makes more sense to fully dive in. It might even be somewhat easy to shift their tools from N3/N4 nodes into N2, guarantee you not a soul here or in any leaker group actually knows.
 
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