Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,139
2,411
136
That too, yes. That being said I don’t view Russia using nukes as a very likely thing absent an actual invasion that looks like it will succeed.

The main reason is the second Putin pushes that button he is signing his own death warrant and Russian policy is dictated by what is good for Putin personally.

Russia already had a couple of opportunities to use tactical level nukes in the Ukraine war and they didn't. Whenever people talk about Russia using nukes they don't seem to step back and ask to a couple of basic questions.
#1- Why would Russia risk nuclear escalation over the Ukraine war?
#2- What is the specific objective that Russia is trying to achieve by using nuclear weapons that they cannot achieve with conventional arms?
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,471
45,115
136
Britain reacts to the latest round of civilian murders in Ukraine, sends more Martlet missiles and Rapid Ranger systems.

"Ukraine will receive nearly £1.7 billion ($2.3 billion) from the UK to strengthen its air defense systems, according to the Telegram channel of Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal."

Hopefully this can help make up for the Russian asset having 20,000 anti drone missiles redirected away from Ukraine and to US peace keeping forces in the ME. Help stand against Russian crimes against humanity? Not this asshole.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,473
54,244
136
Russia already had a couple of opportunities to use tactical level nukes in the Ukraine war and they didn't. Whenever people talk about Russia using nukes they don't seem to step back and ask to a couple of basic questions.
#1- Why would Russia risk nuclear escalation over the Ukraine war?
#2- What is the specific objective that Russia is trying to achieve by using nuclear weapons that they cannot achieve with conventional arms?
Yes, I believe I have asked a similar question in the past because nukes are not very useful in this situation. Military targets are generally hardened against nuclear attack (men are in trenches or armored vehicles, etc.) so nukes aren't super helpful at destroying them as compared to conventional weapons. Also significantly, once you drop a nuke on their troops your troops are now advancing in a CBR environment. I know Russia doesn't care about the lives of its troops but it's still a big problem just from an operational readiness standpoint as your troops aren't going to fight well while dying of radiation poisoning. I guess Russia could nuke Ukraine's cities and probably kill their leadership but since the cities are what you're trying to control anyway ruling over radioactive ruins seems pointless.

I agree though, nuclear weapons seem incompatible with Russia's aims in this war, at least their initial aims. I do wonder if they faced catastrophic defeat if they wouldn't resort to nuclear attack on Ukraine's cities out of spite but even that seems unlikely as Russia would need to live in the world after doing that and would become a pariah state (even more than they are) for essentially no gain.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,471
45,115
136
Russia already had a couple of opportunities to use tactical level nukes in the Ukraine war and they didn't. Whenever people talk about Russia using nukes they don't seem to step back and ask to a couple of basic questions.
#1- Why would Russia risk nuclear escalation over the Ukraine war?
#2- What is the specific objective that Russia is trying to achieve by using nuclear weapons that they cannot achieve with conventional arms?

Indeed. They were about to, then didn't because we expressly told them not to. "Mr. Shoigu, I am in command of the largest, most powerful military in human history. I don't have to make threats." That was back in the days when we had a working administration in the White House, one that didn't collude with Putin.

What some people are worried about is Trump letting Putin make a tactical nuke attack and then directly blame the US (all he has to do is use Biden's name) for it, then Trump dutifully saying something to the effect of "This has become too hot, the previous admin allowed this to happen and I'm going to remove America from the fight, I hereby order our forces to stand down and not respond." This would effectively break NATO. The rest would have to decide to respond without the US involved, good chance they wouldn't. Regardless of what happens after that, Putin will be able to say he got rid of NATO, use it to save face, declare an end the SMO, dig in where they are. Massive risk for sure, but Putin is desperate. Then there is the spite factor, something they're known for.

That NATO will just be replaced with a new defensive org doesn't matter to them in the short term. They will save up and build, try it all again in 4-5 years if they can.

Oh if only we had a real president. This war could be brought to a timely conclusion if the proper costs were established for Russia.
 
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Young Grasshopper

Golden Member
Nov 9, 2007
1,014
375
136
I think the true reason is it would be such an overmatch that nukes would be Russia's only means so staying in the fight. Russia can't keep the fight conventional since they can't compete so escalation would be needed.


Funny the US lost a 20 year ‘conventional’ war in Afghanistan and we’re just humiliated in the Red Sea by the poorest country in the Middle East, and they’re losing another one in Ukraine.

They were also kicked out of Niger last year.

Lots of losing lately from the ‘strongest’ military in the planet. Or maybe, just maybe they’re not that strong and you’ve been propagandized to believe that…

I mean, a trillion dollar military budget and can’t even get air superiority over fucking Yemen.

No usable hypersonic, combat tested missiles either. Russia of course, has had them for years now.

Difficulties recruiting for the armed forces as well. I get it, the minute you join the US military you get sent to some 3rd world country to go bomb people that haven’t done anything to us.

Meanwhile the Russians are recruiting 60k a month…

And yet despite all of this, they want to bail on Ukraine and instead want to pivot to taking on China and Iran…Delusional.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,471
45,115
136
The more important take (imho) is how ukraine cares about their people while Russia is happy to shoot their own wounded.

Majority of Russians are a sick people who don't respect or value life, that much is clear. They are all in on wiping out neighbors they see as traitors for rejecting Russian identity.

Also clear, cyka needs new material. Every single bullshit lie of his has been debunked several times already. He's easy to trigger though, as we've seen. I presume it was the 4 Kinzhals that just got shot down the other night that has his Russian weapon inferiority complex raging again. I also don't think he likes being reminded of when Austin told Shoigu and Putin to btfu, and they did. Quite triggering. Too bad.
 
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DZero

Golden Member
Jun 20, 2024
1,155
406
96
Russia already had a couple of opportunities to use tactical level nukes in the Ukraine war and they didn't. Whenever people talk about Russia using nukes they don't seem to step back and ask to a couple of basic questions.
#1- Why would Russia risk nuclear escalation over the Ukraine war?
#2- What is the specific objective that Russia is trying to achieve by using nuclear weapons that they cannot achieve with conventional arms?
Now is hard.... Ukraine would use the drones to stop the launch or even worse... detonate the misil in said nuclear silo.
 

DZero

Golden Member
Jun 20, 2024
1,155
406
96
Trump the piece of shit following through for Putin again...

Don't be surprised if ALL the data gets leaked and Ukraine will use the chance to "wake them up" making the kidnap impossible and take darker moves from the Kemlim (yeah, use the kids for organs or even worse)
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
19,653
6,725
136
Funny the US lost a 20 year ‘conventional’ war in Afghanistan and we’re just humiliated in the Red Sea by the poorest country in the Middle East, and they’re losing another one in Ukraine.

They were also kicked out of Niger last year.

Lots of losing lately from the ‘strongest’ military in the planet. Or maybe, just maybe they’re not that strong and you’ve been propagandized to believe that…

I mean, a trillion dollar military budget and can’t even get air superiority over fucking Yemen.

No usable hypersonic, combat tested missiles either. Russia of course, has had them for years now.

Difficulties recruiting for the armed forces as well. I get it, the minute you join the US military you get sent to some 3rd world country to go bomb people that haven’t done anything to us.

Meanwhile the Russians are recruiting 60k a month…

And yet despite all of this, they want to bail on Ukraine and instead want to pivot to taking on China and Iran…Delusional.
Uhm, the very basic difference of fighting a regular army or a guerrilla army supported by the local population.

I'm pretty sure that fighting back Russian regular troops, not supported by Ukranian population is another task than those in the Middle East/Africa.

Not that it is easy, but two completely different scenarios.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,260
9,445
136
Russia already had a couple of opportunities to use tactical level nukes in the Ukraine war and they didn't. Whenever people talk about Russia using nukes they don't seem to step back and ask to a couple of basic questions.
#1- Why would Russia risk nuclear escalation over the Ukraine war?
#2- What is the specific objective that Russia is trying to achieve by using nuclear weapons that they cannot achieve with conventional arms?
If I was Ukraine, I'd have a lot of dirty bomb options ALREADY built for this contingency.
Russia does not want to glow in the dark. But they can if they want to.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
12,005
1,114
126
Funny the US lost a 20 year ‘conventional’ war in Afghanistan
Convenient that you left out the part that while running operations in Afghanistan, the US also managed to attack the largest ME army at the time and fought to it's capital in 22 days. And those wars weren't fought on our borders but half way around the world.
Meanwhile the Russians are recruiting 60k a month…
That's not a flex. The US wasn't incurring causalities at a rate that required 60k troops per month. No sane nation would accept that for such gains as Russia is seeing.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,471
45,115
136
All the data is being transferred to Interpol and the Ukrainians. The EU and Ukrainians should be able to use this to continue tracking this.

Didn't some of it already go missing? Glad to hear there is a fall back repository from those who care, I just worry they aren't getting all the data.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,139
2,411
136
Didn't some of it already go missing? Glad to hear there is a fall back repository from those who care, I just worry they aren't getting all the data.

I didn't read that data is missing. Hopefully Interpol and the Ukrainians can continue to gather the data and take action.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,471
45,115
136
I didn't read that data is missing. Hopefully Interpol and the Ukrainians can continue to gather the data and take action.

It was back when they first killed funding for The Ukraine Conflict Observatory last March I think it was. Someone said a large amount of data was unaccounted for. Supposedly one guy grabbed it and maintained it? I looked again and found


"Following a review, the U.S. Department of State decided to terminate the foreign assistance award supporting the Ukraine Conflict Observatory," a different spokesperson said. The spokesperson said the data resides on a platform owned by MITRE, a non-governmental organization that operates research and development centers, according to its website.

To the best of MITRE’s knowledge and belief, the research data that was compiled has not been deleted and is currently maintained by a former partner on this contract," it said in a statement."


Hope that's the case and Interpol gets everything.
 
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DZero

Golden Member
Jun 20, 2024
1,155
406
96
It was back when they first killed funding for The Ukraine Conflict Observatory last March I think it was. Someone said a large amount of data was unaccounted for. Supposedly one guy grabbed it and maintained it? I looked again and found


"Following a review, the U.S. Department of State decided to terminate the foreign assistance award supporting the Ukraine Conflict Observatory," a different spokesperson said. The spokesperson said the data resides on a platform owned by MITRE, a non-governmental organization that operates research and development centers, according to its website.

To the best of MITRE’s knowledge and belief, the research data that was compiled has not been deleted and is currently maintained by a former partner on this contract," it said in a statement."


Hope that's the case and Interpol gets everything.
They will do. Even if Trump wants to erase, someone will steal the data and make it public. It will make Trump looks definately as Putin's lapdog and destroys USA image in the world.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,471
45,115
136
Looks like Norway is sending more Vipers to Ukraine.


"The document indicates that Norway intends to provide Ukraine with 14 F-16 aircraft, despite official announcements confirming only 6 fighters. Delivery schedules for the additional unannounced F-16s remain undisclosed.

The report does not detail the condition of the eight additional aircraft. They may include airframes unsuitable for flight, potentially used for training technical personnel, disassembly for spare parts, or as decoys.

This aligns partially with earlier Norwegian government statements about transferring only combat-ready fighters, decommissioned in 2021. However, it is possible that some of the unannounced F-16s have been repaired and restored to operational condition.

In addition to the F-16s, the report mentions the transfer to Ukraine of 20 German-made Dingo 2 armoured vehicles and 2 Norwegian NM189 engineering vehicles, based on the Leopard 1 tank."
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,471
45,115
136
When you want info about your "MIA" family member, but live in a dogshit fascist police state run by a butcher and his thugs. Have to ask the people you invaded! I Want to Find has been running for more than a year now, and Putin has kept them busy the whole time.



"More than 100,000 Russian families have contacted a Ukrainian-run initiative in search of information about missing Russian soldiers, Ukraine's Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of the Prisoners of War (POWs) said on June 12.

The announcement comes as Russia and Ukraine are conducting a series of the most extensive prisoner exchanges since the beginning of the large-scale war in 2022. The latest phase of the exchange occurred on June 12.

The initiative, called "I Want to Find" (Russian: "Хочу найти"), has received 100,324 requests from Russian citizens seeking answers about relatives who vanished while serving in Russia's military, the Coordination Headquarters said.

The actual number of missing Russian troops is believed to be significantly higher. Since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin has largely concealed the scale of its military losses, forcing many families to search independently, Ukrainian officials said."
 
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Young Grasshopper

Golden Member
Nov 9, 2007
1,014
375
136
Nice gesture by Marco Rubio:


On behalf of the American people, I want to congratulate the Russian people on Russia Day.

The United States remains committed to supporting the Russian people as they continue to build on their aspirations for a brighter future. We also take this opportunity to reaffirm the United States’ desire for constructive engagement with the Russian Federation to bring about a durable peace between Russia and Ukraine. It is our hope that peace will foster more mutually beneficial relations between our countries.
 
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