Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

brycejones · Tuesday at 7:26 PM

Young Grasshopper said:
Here you go:

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_briefs/RB10000/RB10014/RAND_RB10014.pdf

And if you want by know the gameplan with Israel:

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf

Read Chapter 5.

You’re welcome.

LOL

No

Your first paper was published 5 years AFTER Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. We have become used to the low level of performance from the various "young grasshopper" posters over the years but you might actually be the worst. Between bouncing between nationalities over the course of a couple of days and then trying to claim a paper published after Russia invaded Ukraine is evidence the source of the conflict is the US is just beyond sad.

Also we have a whole other thread about the middle east. Are you incapable of posting there?

bononos · Wednesday at 6:41 AM

RnR_au said:
Thats always been their plan. Russia has to make the decision to vacate the battle ground. The only way you can do this is via economic pressure.

Ukraine have been treating Russia's energy infrastructure with kid gloves recently, apparently at the request of Trump. But I think those gloves are about to come off and their oil facility targeting is about to be recommence.

No, Ukraine had the resources to hit back with counteroffensives/offensives in 2022, 2023, 2024. 2025 with Trump in office might be a year where Ukraine can only hang on.

There needs to be a frank admission that Ukraine has serious manpower shortage which have many causes. General morale is poor, high number of desertions, whole new EU trained units like the 155th division disintegrating at first contact, not enough willing volunteers signing up, TCC has to resort to harsh press gang conscriptions.

Maybe Russia will run out of gas sooner but it looks like they can continue grinding away for several years. The obvious way forward would be send in NATO soldiers to follow Russia's lead with North Korean soldiers.

igor_kavinski · Wednesday at 11:12 AM

bononos said:
The obvious way forward would be send in NATO soldiers to follow Russia's lead with North Korean soldiers.

nk soldiers are dispensable. Are NATO soldiers? That's the big issue. EU still can't make up its mind whether it wants a direct conflict with russia.

Brovane · Wednesday at 11:18 AM

igor_kavinski said:
nk soldiers are dispensable. Are NATO soldiers? That's the big issue. EU still can't make up its mind whether it wants a direct conflict with russia.

NATO soldiers could hold the lines facing Belarus. Ukraine has not a insignificant amount of troops in these areas in case Russia decides to launch a land attack from Belarus again. Also NATO troops could main air defense. There is a lot of areas that NATO could support that would keep them deployed far behind active front lines.

Young Grasshopper · Wednesday at 12:36 PM

igor_kavinski said:
nk soldiers are dispensable. Are NATO soldiers? That's the big issue. EU still can't make up its mind whether it wants a direct conflict with russia.

EU can’t make up its mind? This conflict has been going on for 3 years now, and it’s VERY CLEAR the EU doesn’t want a direct conflict with Russia.

They have put out conflicting statements over the course of this war to confuse its brainwashed supporters, which seems to be working. Maybe you should pay attention to what they actually do and not what they say…

And accept the fact that NATO is not going to risk a nuclear war with Russia over FUCKING Ukraine.

Just not going to happen guys….Ukraine is essentially a private military contractor to NATO and nothing more. Ukraine will be a discarded, rump state by NATO when this thing is over.

Besides, NATO troops will likely be busy fighting in the Middle East very soon depending if Trump escalates or not.

No one cares about Ukraine anymore.

Brovane · Wednesday at 12:44 PM

Young Grasshopper said:
EU can’t make up its mind? This conflict has been going on for 3 years now, and it’s VERY CLEAR the EU doesn’t want a direct conflict with Russia.

The EU isn't a military organization, never has been.

Young Grasshopper said:
And accept the fact that NATO is not going to risk a nuclear war with Russia over FUCKING Ukraine.

Why would Russia risk nuclear war with NATO trying to invade Finland and Sweden?

gdansk · Wednesday at 5:46 PM

I love reading the Russian-influenced hope for Ukrainian collapse. Any day now for over three years.
Of course, the delusional hopes flows from antiquated interpretations of the conflict being a great power political struggle instead a war of national resistance and so mostly afflicts Russians and backward-looking Americans for that reason.

K1052 · Wednesday at 5:57 PM

gdansk said:
I love reading the Russian-influenced hope for Ukrainian collapse. Any day now for over three years.
Of course, the delusional hopes flows from antiquated interpretations of the conflict being a great power political struggle instead a war of national resistance and so mostly afflicts Russians and backward-looking Americans for that reason.

The masculine urge to not comprehend any existential war besides WW2.

RnR_au · Wednesday at 6:13 PM

igor_kavinski said:
nk soldiers are dispensable. Are NATO soldiers? That's the big issue. EU still can't make up its mind whether it wants a direct conflict with russia.

European soldiers and their combined arms doctrine are behind the times now in a drone era.

The one thing that NATO could offer is air superiority. Glide bombs would stop being a threat on the front lines for the Ukrainians. I'm not sure that NATO/Euro forces have an answer to the shaheds/ballistic missile numbers that Russia seems to be producing nowadays. And they may still be ramping. A European airforce would need to initiate a continuous long range bombing campaign to neuter Russia's industrial capacity.

Brovane · Wednesday at 6:40 PM

RnR_au said:
European soldiers and their combined arms doctrine are behind the times now in a drone era.

The one thing that NATO could offer is air superiority. Glide bombs would stop being a threat on the front lines for the Ukrainians. I'm not sure that NATO/Euro forces have an answer to the shaheds/ballistic missile numbers that Russia seems to be producing nowadays. And they may still be ramping. A European airforce would need to initiate a continuous long range bombing campaign to neuter Russia's industrial capacity.

NATO air force could neuter Russia's ability to move equipment forward. Take out every bridge and rail bridge within 200 miles of the front line. Establish air dominance and the Russian army is going to have a lot of difficulty in moving any supplies forward to the front line to sustain any offensive push. The difficulty will come when trying to dislodge Russian troops that are dug-in. However disrupt enough supplies moving forward you will start degrading the units that are in fortified positions.

balloonshark · Wednesday at 7:20 PM

Speaking of air dominance. I found it interesting that a F-15 can carry 50 air to air missiles. It would work great for both offense and defense. I assume these are being used for Israel's missile and drone defense.

RnR_au · 2025-06-19T06:17:43-0400

Hmmm.....

Hope for confirmation, but expecting fake news.

bononos · 2025-06-19T07:19:29-0400

kage69 said:
Citation needed there I think. There is no shortage of artillery shells far as I know. The use of drones over artillery is by choice. They have plenty of them and they are more flexible, with better range and accuracy than artillery. It's why drone operators are the highest value battlefield targets right now, moreso than artillery, snipers or logistics.

The ground taken is minimal, just part of the ebb and flow of a stalemate. Same for the advances Ukraine has made in Kursk.

Uh, Ukraine just kneecapped the Russians in a ground breaking historic attack, with no losses. Not the first time either. If you don't think Ukraine has plans then I don't think you've been paying attention.

Ok. The artillery and shell shortage could have been a much more serious problem in 2024 (vs now) due to stalling in US congress/white house.
And I did some more reading and perhaps Ukraine can counter Russian glide bombs in 2025 with electronic warfare.

On the 3 fronts - Russia has reversed the Kursk offensive and is now moving towards Sumy, encircling Pokrovsk in the east and encircling Orikhiv in the south.

About recent attack on Russian airbases, Ukraine has done well in the indirect strategy of attacking Russian ships/ports, military bases deep inside Russia, and the recent Kursk offensive but they are not sustained enough to force Putin to give up. Russia has also gone for the indirect strategy of bombing and terrorizing Ukrainian cities with drones.

bononos · 2025-06-19T07:26:43-0400

Brovane said:
NATO soldiers could hold the lines facing Belarus. Ukraine has not a insignificant amount of troops in these areas in case Russia decides to launch a land attack from Belarus again. Also NATO troops could main air defense. There is a lot of areas that NATO could support that would keep them deployed far behind active front lines.

Thats was what I was thinking and along the Moldavian border and Odessa to protect grain ships to free up Ukrainian soldiers and protect air attacks coming from Belarussian airspace.

Jaskalas · 2025-06-19T11:46:07-0400

RnR_au said:
European soldiers and their combined arms doctrine are behind the times now in a drone era.

The one thing that NATO could offer is air superiority. Glide bombs would stop being a threat on the front lines for the Ukrainians. I'm not sure that NATO/Euro forces have an answer to the shaheds/ballistic missile numbers that Russia seems to be producing nowadays. And they may still be ramping. A European airforce would need to initiate a continuous long range bombing campaign to neuter Russia's industrial capacity.

Speaking of ramping up drone production...

These are plans to send 25,000 North Korean "~~workers~~" slaves to increase Russian drone production

cytg111 · 2025-06-19T12:46:09-0400

Money can win this war. All Europe has to do is go all in on the drone paradigm, let Russia pay with lives and we will pay in spend drones. At the end there will be no fertile RU man left standing we will collect the gas and oil for nearly free. Return on investment.

Steve Ballmer monkey dance : Drones Drones Drones Drones Drones Drones Drones

kage69 · 2025-06-19T13:44:39-0400

bononos said:
Ok. The artillery and shell shortage could have been a much more serious problem in 2024 (vs now) due to stalling in US congress/white house.
And I did some more reading and perhaps Ukraine can counter Russian glide bombs in 2025 with electronic warfare.

On the 3 fronts - Russia has reversed the Kursk offensive and is now moving towards Sumy, encircling Pokrovsk in the east and encircling Orikhiv in the south.

About recent attack on Russian airbases, Ukraine has done well in the indirect strategy of attacking Russian ships/ports, military bases deep inside Russia, and the recent Kursk offensive but they are not sustained enough to force Putin to give up. Russia has also gone for the indirect strategy of bombing and terrorizing Ukrainian cities with drones.

Ok. I will take this to mean you are retracting your earlier statement regarding artillery shells.

I'm glad you did some more reading regarding your previous assertion. Just fyi, the EW success against the KABs started a few months ago. IIRC Russian chatter indicated an immediate drop in accuracy, 1 out of 16 now damage targets was the ratio I heard.

"Now moving towards Sumy" dude wat, the Sumy offensive started in January didn't it? They've been trying to encircle Pokrovsk for months. Btw, when I say citation I mean a link, supporting your data and conclusion. Please note there is a difference between "taking and holding" and "conducting combat operations."

Putin wasn't sustained enough to launch an invasion but he did it, as such requires materials from China, weapons from Iran, troops and ammo from NK. Russia has sustainment issues on par or worse than Ukraine at this point. Given how you need allies at times like these and Russia's tactic is to ask for help but not reciprocate, I think their sustainment issues are about to get a lot worse. Example, see Kazakhstan. No more nitrocellulose for you Putin, Kazakhs would rather do business with the UK and Turkey. They're actually helping make NATO ammo now lol

Regarding Russian crimes against humanity, yes, we've been posting about them here, in this thread, since spring of 2022. Since Bucha. We're aware of ongoing Russian terror.

kage69 · 2025-06-19T14:05:09-0400

DZero · 2025-06-19T16:50:26-0400

Jaskalas said:
Speaking of ramping up drone production...

These are plans to send 25,000 North Korean "~~workers~~" slaves to increase Russian drone production

If somehow those drones attacks Israel... imagine how Israel is capable to sabotage North Korea and Rusia together like what they did with Iran.

kage69 · 2025-06-19T21:01:11-0400

DZero said:
If somehow those drones attacks Israel... imagine how Israel is capable to sabotage North Korea and Rusia together like what they did with Iran.

This is getting sad.

outriding · 2025-06-20T08:41:52-0400

Hope this is true

But it looks like the major supplier of a key component to make explosives is no longer going to supply Russia with it.

Kazakhstan is now focusing on delivering to NATO now

RnR_au · 2025-06-20T08:55:13-0400

I don't know if anyone is following prune60 on bsky, but he had a number of interesting economics posts today;

Nabiullina [current governor of the Central Bank of Russia] announced the exhaustion of the last resources of the Russian economy.

Two signals that Russia is running on empty;

Alfa-Bank is a Russian privately owned bank. One of the co-owners, Mikhail Fridman is one of the top 10 oligarchs by wealth.

The fact that the Russian government is now effectively tapping the oligarchs for coins to keep the war machine going means that they are rapidly coming to an economic end.

Earlier prune60 reported that the Ministry of Finance has borrowed ~3 Trillion Rubles over the last 6 months to fund the war.

Great channel with interesting stuff - https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social

kage69 · 2025-06-20T09:31:02-0400

Yep, shit's gettin real now for Russian elite.

Andrey Makarov, head of the Duma's Budget Committee says another Russian collapse could happen. You can have a war, or you can have an economy. Pick one.

"I must inform you that the needs of the working people will continue to grow constantly.But the state may not have enough money to meet those needs. Socialism collapsed simply because it failed to fulfill its fundamental economic law.We haven't even written own fundamental economic laws yet"

Sorry to hear about your impending accident Andrey.

K1052 · 2025-06-20T09:52:44-0400

outriding said:
Hope this is true

But it looks like the major supplier of a key component to make explosives is no longer going to supply Russia with it.

Kazakhstan is now focusing on delivering to NATO now

Odds are western companies outbidding Putin both in price and length of contract. There is more money to be made dealing with Europe instead of Russia and it's always been so.

outriding · 2025-06-20T11:16:54-0400

K1052 said:
Odds are western companies outbidding Putin both in price and length of contract. There is more money to be made dealing with Europe instead of Russia and it's always been so.

What ever it takes to kick Russia’s war machine in the nuts I will support it

Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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