A warning that white collar jobs loss of 10 to 20 percent is imminent due to AI.

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brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
29,318
29,655
136
It is literally how we have escaped the Malthusian paradox - improvements in efficiency largely driven by specialization.
The biggest challenge now is making sure those benefits are distributed more widely than they have been since the early 80s.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,525
54,359
136
The biggest challenge now is making sure those benefits are distributed more widely than they have been since the early 80s.
Correct. It’s a social problem, not a tech problem.

Also, frankly, we as a society are not going to be able to ban technology we don’t like if it’s genuinely more effective/efficient. Someone else will just build it and out compete is.
 
Reactions: hal2kilo

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
25,523
15,050
136
Agentic coding is awesome, you are simply delegating junior tasks left and right and it's like having a team of 10 eager employees just going at it.

However it stops at 80-90%.. And it's not just me, this is the ceiling that everybody encounters who hast taken the jump. There is just a limit to the contextual awareness and sense for the mission that it will just not go above.

So the trick for a developer is to know where to take the reigns .. At some point you reach that inflection point where you are spending more time prompting your way out of something than it would take to actually do it yourself.

And that means you need to understand all the rest of the 80-90% that has been generated for you ... If you dont, you wont be able to glue the shit together.


So I wonder if it's the same threshold for other white collar jobs? And at what percentage is it good enough and how do you error correct in those fields?
 
Reactions: repoman0

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,308
16,667
136
Hell I wish more people were in the trades, I think the benefit would be two fold: more choice and better options and lower overall costs. As it stands now, most of the time I can do a better job than most tradesman and for a lot cheaper. Factor in quality and time and it’s still not worth it, imo. All the actual skilled tradesmen have retired and it doesn’t appear that they passed down their knowledge.
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
5,175
4,542
136
Agentic coding is awesome, you are simply delegating junior tasks left and right and it's like having a team of 10 eager employees just going at it.

However it stops at 80-90%.. And it's not just me, this is the ceiling that everybody encounters who hast taken the jump. There is just a limit to the contextual awareness and sense for the mission that it will just not go above.

So the trick for a developer is to know where to take the reigns .. At some point you reach that inflection point where you are spending more time prompting your way out of something than it would take to actually do it yourself.

And that means you need to understand all the rest of the 80-90% that has been generated for you ... If you dont, you wont be able to glue the shit together.


So I wonder if it's the same threshold for other white collar jobs? And at what percentage is it good enough and how do you error correct in those fields?
This 100%
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
21,908
6,267
136
So white collar isnt a respectable living, good to know.

Wonder if you had the same attitude while automation and offshoring decimated blue collar jobs in the US.
I couldn't keep up with all the work I was offered before I retired.
Right now handymen are asking and getting $100 an hour in many places. That's what you call a living wage.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
21,908
6,267
136
Hell I wish more people were in the trades, I think the benefit would be two fold: more choice and better options and lower overall costs. As it stands now, most of the time I can do a better job than most tradesman and for a lot cheaper. Factor in quality and time and it’s still not worth it, imo. All the actual skilled tradesmen have retired and it doesn’t appear that they passed down their knowledge.
The issue is more about refining tasks down so an absolute minimum of training is required. The goal is to have a "trade" where the basics can be taught in a few weeks and requires 7 or fewer tools.
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
39,331
20,035
146
I couldn't keep up with all the work I was offered before I retired.
Right now handymen are asking and getting $100 an hour in many places. That's what you call a living wage.

Irrelevant to my post.

Your failing to understand other pieces of what you’re saying tho.
 

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,884
2,773
136
They'll have plenty of money, they'll just have to sweat for it. Instead of marketing, SEO optimization, and app's to track your toenail trimming schedule, we'll have plumbers, electricians, carpenters, and painters. The nation will once again be populated by capable men and women doing the jobs that made America great.

I can smell the sawdust already!
This is the elitism that you and other conservatives pretend to get offended by.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,238
14,237
136
Yep, there will always be a job for a janitor.

Robot mops, robot vacuums, etc. Soon enough those jobs will go. Already eliminated all the bridge toll operators; auto-checkout eliminating jobs at grocery and big box; chatboxes eliminating customer service jobs, etc. Robotic construction coming along as well.

If we don't have something like UBI by around 2050, half of us will starve.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
17,046
16,183
146
Agentic coding is awesome, you are simply delegating junior tasks left and right and it's like having a team of 10 eager employees just going at it.

However it stops at 80-90%.. And it's not just me, this is the ceiling that everybody encounters who hast taken the jump. There is just a limit to the contextual awareness and sense for the mission that it will just not go above.

So the trick for a developer is to know where to take the reigns .. At some point you reach that inflection point where you are spending more time prompting your way out of something than it would take to actually do it yourself.

And that means you need to understand all the rest of the 80-90% that has been generated for you ... If you dont, you wont be able to glue the shit together.


So I wonder if it's the same threshold for other white collar jobs? And at what percentage is it good enough and how do you error correct in those fields?
From my experience, there's more blue collar jobs that stop at 80-90% than white collar ones. Cough.
 
Reactions: cytg111

pauldun170

Diamond Member
Sep 26, 2011
9,306
5,374
136
It is great news as industries use the efficiencies realized by LLM\AI to increase automation resulting in the ability to suppress wages and reset the US job market.

From and environmental standpoint, wage adjustment reduces consumerism and the waste it creates.

Unfortunately, the underclass, deflation new social structures it's going to create wont be pretty.

However, as one has noted in this thread the promise of an uneducated worker class will enable oligarchs to more effectively control society for the good of its own people.
If shit hits the fan, they can always go to Bangkok or some resort in Cambodia
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
39,331
20,035
146
It is great news as industries use the efficiencies realized by LLM\AI to increase automation resulting in the ability to suppress wages and reset the US job market.

From and environmental standpoint, wage adjustment reduces consumerism and the waste it creates.

Unfortunately, the underclass, deflation new social structures it's going to create wont be pretty.

However, as one has noted in this thread the promise of an uneducated worker class will enable oligarchs to more effectively control society for the good of its own people.
If shit hits the fan, they can always go to Bangkok or some resort in Cambodia
Likely already there, summering on a yacht or three
 
Reactions: hal2kilo
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