I think you over-estimate the wafer cost. ArrowLake's compute tile is about 114 mm2, NVL with same cache size should be smaller than ARL. I am expecting around 100 mm2. Don't forget the improvement of SRAM density. That's why Zen 6c able to fit in 128MB in single die. With estimated of 80% yield, Intel could get 500 dies per wafer. Even at $30,000 per wafer, cost per die is about $60 only. No doubt they are costly compared to Ryzen 7950X as explained by Ian
here, but with selling price under $1000, Intel still has many margins to dangle with.
I have created table with the leaks about NovaLake-S desktop lineup in the frontpage, Core Ultra 9 sure looks like badass in term of thread numbers. With bLLC, Intel might bring back Extreme Edition to justify high price tags, what do you think?
Your concern seems valid, and I also don't believe AMD who has launched higher core count before Intel will let Intel overtake the performance crown. That's why I suspect AMD is working to bring Zen6c (32-core with 128MB L3 cache) to desktop lineup. I know it is not in the roadmap yet but kind of make sense. We shall see...