2014 Gasoline Price Forecast

[MagickMan]

True, but here, diesel has been above $4 per gallon for many months and is currently sitting at $4.19.

The great disparity there is taxation, otherwise it would be much closer to $3.70, where it is here.

 

[desy]

Learn some more about peak oil
Oil companies only represent about 25-30% of global production most production is in the hands of Nationals. Its going to be worse and worse due to supply constraints, not reserves! flow rates cause the easy apples have been picked and we are having to go after the ones higher in the tree.


http://ourfiniteworld.com/2014/02/25/beginning-of-the-end-oil-companies-cut-back-on-spending/

http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/kopits-45-industry-needs-oil-prices-over-100.png

Historically, oil companies have used a discounted cash flow approach to figure out whether over the long term, pricing for a particular field will be profitable. Unfortunately, this “standard” approach has not been working well recently. Expenses have been escalating too rapidly, and there have been too many new drilling sites producing below expectation. What Kopits shows on the above slide is the prices that companies need on different basis–a “cash flow” basis–so that each year companies have enough money to pay today’s capital expenditures, plus today’s expenses, plus today’s dividends.

The reason for using the cash flow approach is because companies have found themselves coming up short: they find that after they have paid capital expenditures and other expenditures such as taxes, they don’t have enough money left to pay dividends, unless they borrow money or sell off assets. Oil companies need to pay dividends because pension plans and other buyers of oil company stocks expect to receive regular dividends in payment for their equity investment. The dividends are important to pension plans.

http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/kopits-48-conventional-oil-production.png

http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/kopits-59-conclusions.jpg

 

[dmcowen674]

Prices have jumped to $3.69 here some stations $3.79

Will be well over $4 shortly

2-27-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-natural-gas-down-slightly-221641326.html

At the gas pump, the average price for a gallon of gasoline rose a penny to $3.44. The nationwide average has risen 16 cents in the past month as refineries undergo seasonal maintenance ahead of the driving season. That reduces supplies and forces pump prices higher.

Still, the average price is still 35 cents lower that at this time last year, when gas hit its peak price of $3.79 a gallon.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

I paid $2.97/gal (with $0.10/gal Kroger discount) yesterday afternoon

 

[Tweak155]

I paid $2.97/gal (with $0.10/gal Kroger discount) yesterday afternoon

So you mean it is normally priced $3.07??? RIP OFF!!! Hide your kids, hide your wife.

 

[Wreckem]

There was a huge spike on Wednesday where I am at. Went from 3.09 to 3.35 for regular. It dropped to 3.29 yesterday.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

So you mean it is normally priced $3.07???

Yes.

http://www.texasgasprices.com/Shell_Gas_Stations/Richmond/113096/index.aspx

 

[Matt1970]

Prices have jumped to $3.69 here some stations $3.79

Will be well over $4 shortly

2-27-2014

You said we would be $4 by last Friday.

 

[hal2kilo]

I paid $2.97/gal (with $0.10/gal Kroger discount) yesterday afternoon

Yea, I paid $2.37 a gal at the Safeway due to having a $1 off a gal rewards points coupon.

 

[dmcowen674]

I paid $7.29 a gallon















for Propane

$35 for 5 gallons - insane

$10 a gallon if exchanging tank so I went to a local re-filling station.

Friend asked me to help with fixing a Propane Refrigerator. I told him at these prices forget it, go with new Inverter system and replace with an AC Fridge in the RV.

 

[Tweak155]

Gas did go up a bit more now, but still only to $3.51. Not the $4 as was promised.

 

[MagickMan]

Up to $3.25 here, for premium. OMG, the sky is falling. D:

 

[dmcowen674]

Of course the Ukraine will be an easy excuse to raise Oil and gas prices

Now over $105

Will they break previous record $150, we will find out soon enough

Chicago oil thug Nick Leblebijian says $120 may be easy, what's another $30

How bout gas prices, lets watch them push $6

3-3-2014

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...er-on-escalating-tensions-in-ukraine/5973181/

Rising political tensions in Ukraine are spilling over to global energy markets, sending crude oil prices to their highest prices in 2014.

Benchmark West Texas crude spurted 2.4% to $105

"Any time you have a situation like this, you're going to have energy markets move,'' says Nick Leblebijian, a partner at Chicago-based Lakefront Futures & Options, who says crude could add another $5 a barrel, possibly more, without a swift resolution.


"If this were to continue, $120 is possible,'' Leblebijian tells USA Today.

The runup is also driving gasoline futures, which could push pump prices higher and faster than normal ahead of the spring and summer driving season.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Here's the next driver of higher gasoline prices

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles...0001424052702304360704579417023641818910.html

EPA Sets New Gasoline Standards
Rules Lower Sulfur Content in Fuel by More Than 60%

The Environmental Protection Agency on Monday announced long-awaited rules to lower the sulfur content of gasoline by more than 60% in 2017, requiring a change in gasoline formulas as well as a reduction in tailpipe emissions.
The rules, which came after months of discussions between industry and environmental groups, would require gasoline manufacturers to lower their sulfur emissions, which are component of smog and are tied to a range of respiratory diseases.
The oil industry has been fighting proposed new restrictions, saying they will raise the cost of gas 10 cents per gallon and cost the industry billions of dollars. In a press call Monday, EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy said the increase may be less than one cent per gallon and that estimates from the oil industry were outdated.
The industry estimates of gas price increases and costs to refineries also didn't take into account the flexibility provided by EPA to meet the new standards, she said.
The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, which includes 12 of the largest automakers, supports the rules because, the coalition has said, cleaner gas will save them money and is more fuel efficient.

The company for whom I work sold many compressors (centrifugal or reciprocating) driven by steam turbines (all manufactured in the company's US factories) or electric motors during the ultra-low sulfur diesel upgrades from the last EPA regulation so this should also net many sales as well.

 

[dmcowen674]

Excuse already in for massive price spikes in May

3-4-2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...to-plan-unit-shutdowns-in-may.html?cmpid=yhoo

Alon Big Spring Oil Refinery Said to Plan Unit Shutdowns in May

Alon USA Energy Inc. (ALJ) is scheduled to shut the crude unit and a fluid catalytic cracker at the Big Spring oil refinery in Texas in early May for planned repairs, a person familiar with the schedule said.



Modifications to the crude unit are expected to take about a month,


The crude unit upgrades will increase the plant’s ability to run lighter crudes from domestic shale plays and boost the refinery’s distillate output by about 2,000 barrels a day, according to the statement. The company estimated that the refinery would run at 73,000 barrels a day in the first quarter because of the delay, up from its initial forecast of 55,000.

 

[desy]

Repair and Maintenance SOP for a refinery
Don't buy the product if you don't want it

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Repair and Maintenance SOP for a refinery
Don't buy the product if you don't want it

Over the next 3 months there will be many refineries down for maintenance and shifting over the summer blend fuel so get used to McOwned squealing about everyone he gets wind of in the news.

 

[desy]

First he complains no NEW refineries!
Without realizing the old refineries increased capacity 2X and it was just older crappier refineries that closed and the exisiting just expanded production to meet domestic demand, for a bunch of reasons, environement legislation, economies of scale
Then cause they overbuilt to meet demand now have an excess of REFINED product to export, cause he also forgets the US imports 8 mbpd and exports about 1.7 mbpd of finished product so when the price of crude a GLOBAL commodity goes up the price of the REFINED product also has to go up and has nothing to do with oil thugs.
Refineries are a business as is the whole oil and gas industry who have every right to earn profits for their stockholders and interested parties. Oil and gas jobs are some of the best paying jobs too.

Not to mention Domestic oil is more expensive

http://chapelboro.com/columns/common-science/checking-peak-oil/

The increase in petroleum production in the U.S. has not provided any meaningful relief from high gasoline prices, which remain steadfastly above $3.00 per gallon. There are two main reasons for this: petroleum is a global commodity (more on that below) and fracking is an expensive technique. Consider that in 2004, oil sold for about $40 per barrel. The break-even price for a barrel of oil produced from fracking is $80.

 

[MagickMan]

Over the next 3 months there will be many refineries down for maintenance and shifting over the summer blend fuel so get used to McOwned squealing about everyone he gets wind of in the news.

"Squeal" is right, that ignorant swine doesn't know how to do anything but squeal.

 

[dmcowen674]

How many in here can do their job at 87.4% and not be fired from your job?


3-5-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-inventories-rise-gasoline-155538863.html

Refineries are running at 87.4% of capacity

 

[dmcowen674]

First he complains no NEW refineries!

Without realizing the old refineries increased capacity 2X and it was just older crappier refineries that closed and the exisiting just expanded production to meet domestic demand, for a bunch of reasons, environement legislation, economies of scale

Then cause they overbuilt to meet demand now have an excess of REFINED product to export, cause he also forgets the US imports 8 mbpd and exports about 1.7 mbpd of finished product so when the price of crude a GLOBAL commodity goes up the price of the REFINED product also has to go up and has nothing to do with oil thugs.

Refineries are a business as is the whole oil and gas industry who have every right to earn profits for their stockholders and interested parties. Oil and gas jobs are some of the best paying jobs too.

Not to mention Domestic oil is more expensive

http://chapelboro.com/columns/common-science/checking-peak-oil/

The increase in petroleum production in the U.S. has not provided any meaningful relief from high gasoline prices, which remain steadfastly above $3.00 per gallon. There are two main reasons for this: petroleum is a global commodity (more on that below) and fracking is an expensive technique. Consider that in 2004, oil sold for about $40 per barrel. The break-even price for a barrel of oil produced from fracking is $80.

That would be wrong.

It was oil thug supporters like you that whined and pined that there has not been a new Refinery built since 1979.

If you are going to spew bullshit at least try a little bit to get it right.

Oh, thanks for refuting your own bullshit.

If you are getting paid to post you fail and should not be paid a cent.

 

[MagickMan]

How many in here can do their job at 87.4% and not be fired from your job?


3-5-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-inventories-rise-gasoline-155538863.html

Refineries are running at 87.4% of capacity

Most office drones run ~30%, a great baseball player hits 35% of the time, and you get paid for not doing anything at all. So, yeah...

 

[MagickMan]

That would be wrong.

It was oil thug supporters like you that whined and pined that there has not been a new Refinery built since 1979.

If you are going to spew bullshit at least try a little bit to get it right.

Oh, thanks for refuting your own bullshit.

If you are getting paid to post you fail and should not be paid a cent.

The only shill in here is you, dipshit.

 

[Zaap]

I've driven 1,300 miles since the last time I filled my tank in December. It's still full. I'm guessing I won't know what the price of gas is for another year. Plug-in hybrids rock.

 

[desy]

Im not a thug, more of an apologist?
I've been reading about energy for a decade now, the issue is you overreact to every disturbance in the force. You never complain when prices get driven down and companies and employees suffer or even whole countries and many are Nationals whose populations rely on that revenue stream