2014 Gasoline Price Forecast

[dmcowen674]

I'm tired of gas dropping here... pretty soon everyone will trade in their Civics for more SUVs

They better hope they have a lot of money for gas

10-29-2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-show-many-betting-on-rebound.html?cmpid=yhoo

Calls for $100-a-Barrel Oil Show Many Betting on Rebound



For all the noise about oil’s collapse, the market is saying not that much has really changed: Higher prices will be back soon enough because the current slowdown in demand growth will prove fleeting.



Current prices are low enough to slow some drilling for shale oil in the U.S.


A lack of new sources of supply would eventually drive prices up until exploration becomes profitable again


The drop in oil prices has led to about 22 projects being canceled this year, principally in Canada and the Arctic


U.S. shale-oil producers don’t have to halt drilling to reduce future output, even a slowdown in activity would have an effect


“Long-term marginal costs in oil production are well over $100 a barrel,” the Barclays research team including Mahesh said in a note yesterday. “It seems extremely unlikely that oil prices will remain below $100 for very long.”

 

[Meghan54]

Some Texas NPR reporters try and find out why the Oil Thugs are still importing so much oil into the U.S.

The excuses are as usual 110% bullshit

10-28-2014

https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2014/10/28/why-is-the-u-s-still-importing-so-much-oil/

Why Is the U.S. Still Importing So Much Oil?



Texas is leading the way in a massive boom in U.S. oil production: oil exports are higher than they’ve been since the 1950s, when the Suez Canal crisis caused a brief jump in shipments. Imports have dropped significantly, but even with that decline, Americans still import about a fourth of the oil they use. We called Tad Patzek, Chair of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering Department at at the University of Texas in Austin, to ask why.


Q: So why do we still import so much oil?


A: We have built a very large refining capacity especially on the Gulf Coast, and refineries cannot run at half time. They have to run full-time, at 100% capacity. So, we are importing oil, we are exporting oil, and we certainly are exporting finished products. You know, gasoline, lubricants and so on, so that the refineries are running all the time.


Q: But the situation conjures up this image of two tankers ships passing each other. One is heading toward the U.S., and one is heading away. It’s like we’re bringing in the same product as we’re sending out.


Many of our refinieries have been specialized to process much heavier crudes from Venezuela, from Mexico, so you can’t change them overnight. That’s why we’re importing oil and we’re exporting gasoline, lubricants, and other products and at the same time, we’re exporting condensate and light crude.

Yep, pure BS.

But, the lot of linked articles cited in the OP's BS orig. article use EIA, Energy Information Administration, data to butress points, like in the first linked article to the Reuters Suez Canal article. So, I went and looked at EIA data.

Remember, the OP's article asked Why Is the U.S. Still Importing So Much Oil?

And you want to know why we still import so much oil, as the article asks? Simple......because we consume more than we produce. Domestically, we produced 12.352M bpd of oil as of May, 2013--EIA data, linked below. We consumed 18.886M bpd of oil. Seems to me domestic production cannot meet demand by about 6.534M bpd, so we import.

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=US&trk=m#pet

And according to this EIA data set, the U.S. exported 268,000 bpd of oil in Apr. 2013, and if the figures are correct in the OP's linked article, 389,000 bpd this past June. BTW, almost all of it goes to Canada.

Almost all of the crude oil exported from the United States has been delivered to Canada...

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=16711



So, we're exporting less than 5% of our domestic output, almost all of which goes to Canada. And it really wouldn't make one damned bit of difference if all our domestically produced oil was used in the U.S. as our domestic output is still 6M bpd less than our daily consumption. I find the OP's highlighted article a little silly.

 

[CPA]

Yep, pure BS.

But, the lot of linked articles cited in the OP's BS orig. article use EIA, Energy Information Administration, data to butress points, like in the first linked article to the Reuters Suez Canal article. So, I went and looked at EIA data.

Remember, the OP's article asked Why Is the U.S. Still Importing So Much Oil?

And you want to know why we still import so much oil, as the article asks? Simple......because we consume more than we produce. Domestically, we produced 12.352M bpd of oil as of May, 2013--EIA data, linked below. We consumed 18.886M bpd of oil. Seems to me domestic production cannot meet demand by about 6.534M bpd, so we import.

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=US&trk=m#pet

And according to this EIA data set, the U.S. exported 268,000 bpd of oil in Apr. 2013, and if the figures are correct in the OP's linked article, 389,000 bpd this past June. BTW, almost all of it goes to Canada.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=16711



So, we're exporting less than 5% of our domestic output, almost all of which goes to Canada. And it really wouldn't make one damned bit of difference if all our domestically produced oil was used in the U.S. as our domestic output is still 6M bpd less than our daily consumption. I find the OP's highlighted article a little silly.

Wait. You mean the OP had been McOwned again?

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Gotta love McOwned railing against the refineries for shutting down for planned maintenance and then railing against them for running the refineries at high output resulting in the need to sell the refined products.

 

[dmcowen674]

Look at how the gas chart looks similar to the Civil War Map.

The South did win.

Also like at the bottom of the article says, better gas up now. Oil is already back up over $82 so expect gas to be jumping as well.

10-29-2014

https://www.yahoo.com/travel/which-states-have-the-cheapest-gas-a-state-by-state-101185277782.html

If you want to see how big a difference geography can play in gas prices, have we got the chart for you.


Actually, the chart is courtesy of GasBuddy.com, which tracks gas prices nationwide and reports them through their site and mobile app. As you can see, if you’re looking to plan a road trip before winter hits, almost all of the cheapest states for gas are in the Midwest and South (New Jersey and neighboring Delaware being outliers).

GasBuddy also tracks the cheapest cities for gas by miles per gallon; here are the top five, according to the most recent data:
1. Chattanooga, Tenn., 2.669.
2. St. Louis, Mo., 2.681.
3. Greenville, S.C., 2.701.
4. Richmond, Va., 2.702.
5. Spartanburg, S.C., 2.708.

And the five most budget-busting cities, if you’re wondering:
1. Honolulu, Hawaii, 3.944.
2. Anchorage, Alaska, 3.606.

3. San Francisco, Calif., 3.544.

4. Buffalo, N.Y., 3.482.

5. Santa Barbara, Calif., 3.450


Since late June, gas prices have dropped nationwide by over 60 cents per gallon. So if you’d like to spend your cash on diner pancakes instead of the pump, you’d best load up your car now.

 

[TheSlamma]

They better hope they have a lot of money for gas

I don't. I want to see carbon emissions shrink, smaller cars more public transportation and less gluttony. Also if gas gets expensive enough riots will have less Molotov cocktails and maybe the fatties will have to get push mowers and lose a few tones off the ass. The spegetti monster knows we need a lot less fatso's

Btw part of that was a joke, 11/16th's was how I really feel

 

[DucatiMonster696]

LOL In other news, how fucked is Venezuela right now ??? Despite it being one the largest oil producers they are now importing oil. Venezuela is a textbook example of how not to run a economy.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/27/oil-venezuela-imports-idUKL1N0QX1JJ20140827

http://www.businessinsider.com/venezuelan-imports-light-crude-from-algeria-2014-10

https://screen.yahoo.com/bloomberg/venezuela-imports-crude-oil-algeria-200837117.html

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Gas prices still dropping and are below the $2.60/gal mark. I paid $2.46/gal with my Kroger and debit card discount.

http://www.texasgasprices.com/Shell_Gas_Stations/Richmond/113096/index.aspx

LOL In other news, how fucked is Venezuela right now ??? Despite it being one the largest oil producers they are now importing oil. Venezuela is a textbook example of how not to run a economy.

This is what happens with you either stop paying the OEM for parts or bar OEM representatives from entering the country. Their oil infrastructure is in dire need of replacement or repair and until they do so things are going to get worse rather than better.

Hopefully some in here realize this is what happens when refinery and/or oil field equipment is not properly maintained.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Now, no offence, but finding two gas stations under $3 and using it as evidence of low gas prices is just as bad as Dave's drive for five.

Yes, if you haven't figured it out by now that was a shot at McOwned.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Gas all over Indianapolis is below $2.85/gallon:

http://www.indygasprices.com/

McOWNED's silence is deafening but our laughter at him fills the void.

 

[cabri]

Most of the Northern Chicago burbs are all below $3 as of yesterday

 

[jhu]

Look at how the gas chart looks similar to the Civil War Map.

The South did win.

Also like at the bottom of the article says, better gas up now. Oil is already back up over $82 so expect gas to be jumping as well.

10-29-2014

https://www.yahoo.com/travel/which-states-have-the-cheapest-gas-a-state-by-state-101185277782.html

If you want to see how big a difference geography can play in gas prices, have we got the chart for you.


Actually, the chart is courtesy of GasBuddy.com, which tracks gas prices nationwide and reports them through their site and mobile app. As you can see, if you’re looking to plan a road trip before winter hits, almost all of the cheapest states for gas are in the Midwest and South (New Jersey and neighboring Delaware being outliers).

GasBuddy also tracks the cheapest cities for gas by miles per gallon; here are the top five, according to the most recent data:
1. Chattanooga, Tenn., 2.669.
2. St. Louis, Mo., 2.681.
3. Greenville, S.C., 2.701.
4. Richmond, Va., 2.702.
5. Spartanburg, S.C., 2.708.

And the five most budget-busting cities, if you’re wondering:
1. Honolulu, Hawaii, 3.944.
2. Anchorage, Alaska, 3.606.

3. San Francisco, Calif., 3.544.

4. Buffalo, N.Y., 3.482.

5. Santa Barbara, Calif., 3.450


Since late June, gas prices have dropped nationwide by over 60 cents per gallon. So if you’d like to spend your cash on diner pancakes instead of the pump, you’d best load up your car now.

Why are you so obsessed with gasoline? You're mad when the price goes up. You're mad when the price goes down. What exactly do you want?

 

[jhu]

LOL In other news, how fucked is Venezuela right now ??? Despite it being one the largest oil producers they are now importing oil. Venezuela is a textbook example of how not to run a economy.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/27/oil-venezuela-imports-idUKL1N0QX1JJ20140827

http://www.businessinsider.com/venezuelan-imports-light-crude-from-algeria-2014-10

https://screen.yahoo.com/bloomberg/venezuela-imports-crude-oil-algeria-200837117.html

They're not the only ones screwed by this. Russia and Iran are too. We may be facing another 90s throwback when Iran was dumping oil on the market because it needed money.

 

[dmcowen674]

Here we go. The first to start shutting down drilling and the oil thug supporters in here said I was wrong and that won't happen.

Well it's in black and white for the world to see in here that I am right and they are always wrong.

10-30-2014

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-10-30/conocophillips-profit-rises-on-asset-sale-and-new-output

ConocoPhillips Becomes First to Cut Spending on Lower Oil

ConocoPhillips became the first major oil company to announce plans to reduce spending due to falling crude prices as drilling in some emerging North American fields becomes less profitable.


ConocoPhillips plans to scale back drilling in emerging oil regions such as West Texas and the Rocky Mountains.

 

[dmcowen674]

Why are you so obsessed with gasoline? You're mad when the price goes up. You're mad when the price goes down. What exactly do you want?

Simply to have them regulated.

If you purposely sucked at your job and got rewarded more and more the worse you did at your job would you do your job any better?

These guys claim breakdowns year after year and use many excuses like the formulation change for the seasons etc.

That happens every year so you would think two things.

They never heard of redundancy?

If you were an electric company and had one generator would you expect to get rewarded for that generator going down?

These thugs get rewarded for it.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Ever hear of the EPA requiring the respective gasoline blends?

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels/gasolinefuels/rfg/regulations.htm

Or states?

http://www.fuelingcalifornia.org/resources/quick-facts/

Or regions?

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fuels/gasolinefuels/rfg/areas.htm

Of course not you too busy blaming the evil oil boogieman.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Simply to have them regulated.

If you purposely sucked at your job and got rewarded more and more the worse you did at your job would you do your job any better?

These guys claim breakdowns year after year and use many excuses like the formulation change for the seasons etc.

That happens every year so you would think two things.

They never heard of redundancy?

If you were an electric company and had one generator would you expect to get rewarded for that generator going down?

These thugs get rewarded for it.

So how does Herr Obama tell the world what it can and cannot charge for oil? I don't think even his grasp reaches that far.

 

[Ketchup]

I found part of the Business Insider Article Interesting/Funny:

Until recently, the Venezuelan government had been buying naphtha on open markets to treat its oil. That's because the extra heavy crude produced by Venezuela needs to be diluted before it can be exported. But a combination of falling oil prices (which makes the country’s major export less profitable) and devalued currency (which makes buying things abroad increasingly expensive) has created a conundrum.

Major export indeed. Considering that petroleum accounts for "more than 50% of the country's GDP and roughly 95% of total exports", not only does BI try to craftily split a cause and effect into two causes, one has to wonder how the country was able to make it a decade ago when gasoline was about half the price it was before the recent drop.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Venezuela

Considering that the year I graduated high school gasoline was about the same price it was the year I was born (and I am not adjusting for inflation here), and gasoline until recently was about 3x that (both 17.5-year gaps) you will have to forgive me if I don't feel sorry for them.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

If you purposely sucked at your job

Well I'll give you this, judging from how much you've jumped around, you must be an expert at sucking at your job.

 

[Pulsar]

If you were an electric company and had one generator would you expect to get rewarded for that generator going down?

Dear retard:

No. Because that's a monopoly.

Scarcity increases prices. Go back to grade school.

 

[dmcowen674]

But but but the Oil Thugs always claim they lose money refining Oil.

10-31-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-beats-3q-profit-forecasts-123113653.html

Exxon defies low oil price with refining strength



Exxon, the biggest U.S. oil company, posted a surprise increase in profit thanks to a 38 percent increase in profit from turning oil and gas into fuels and chemicals.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Those oil thugs got me this morning when I filled up at $2.89. Gas was only $2.59 yesterday!!!

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Exxon, the biggest International oil company

FTFY

 

[dmcowen674]

Here is a woman from Hearst Publishing trying to figure out who and how gas prices are set.

She thinks exporting more crude from the U.S. would lower gas prices.

That's one thing I can guarantee would not happen lady.

10-31-2014

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/10/30/who-sets-gas-prices-look-to-london-not-us-report-says/

Who sets gas prices? Look to London, not US, report says



The government’s top energy analysts waded into the debate on exporting crude Thursday, releasing a study asserting that the cost of gasoline in the United States is closely tied to the price of international crudes, not domestic oil.


Although the report steers clear of making any recommendations about the nation’s longstanding ban on selling most U.S. oil overseas, its finding buttresses the arguments of export advocates that lifting the trade restrictions could translate into lower gasoline prices.


But EIA noted that there are plenty of caveats, with the extent of swings in domestic and global crude prices depending partly on how much U.S. exports affect the actual price realized by companies pulling oil from wells in North Dakota, Texas and other states.


The question of what oil price drives the cost of gasoline is a relatively new one. EIA notes that before 2011, the question was relatively moot, since “the price spread between Brent and WTI was relatively narrow and consistent.” That started to change in mid 2010, when growing deliveries of Canadian crude to Cushing Okla., collided with climbing U.Sl production in North Dakota and Texas, prompting transportation bottlenecks in the Midwest.


The price of WTI crude started declining, with its discount to Brent reaching as high as $28 per barrel. And in the meantime, gasoline prices stuck with Brent’s cost, even as WTI crude prices diverged.

============================================
The bold part tells you the Oil Thugs set the price based on what they feel like, nothing to do with the cost of oil.

 

[Meghan54]

Well, now.....this explains a lot:

When I was hit by lightning in the beginning of the summer and went flying across the patio my head landed on the AC unit and it moved back around 3 inches. If it didn't give I could've been hurt pretty bad.