2014 Gasoline Price Forecast

[dmcowen674]

Originally Posted by Londo_Jowo
I found and posted an article a while back that seems to explain what's happening with gas prices in those states.

http://limaohio.com/news/news/146546...e#.VAH9lP0XP1M

Interesting article. So, I then wonder why we only hear about the .40 jumps and not the .40 declines?

Because it is a lie

==========================================
A week ago, Lima area prices flirted with $4 a gallon.

That’s been the ceiling, with stations beginning to undercut prices by a penny or two.

The competition to churn prices downward continues until no profit margin remains


As prices bottomed out at $3.44 on Thursday afternoon in Lima, stations were losing money
===========================================

If you believe they sell gas for a loss I have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn New York for you.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

So please explain why when the wholesale gas price is holding steady and only one region in the country experiences huge swings while the rest of the country does not. The retailers set the end price throughout the country.

 

[brianmanahan]

i just paid 3.29$

dmcowen you had me hoping for 4$ gas prices

 

[hal2kilo]

Paid $3.53 a gal for diesel at the Silverdale, WA Safeway (with Safeway rebate). Never have gotten less than 25.4 miles per gal since I've owned my car. See my sig.

 

[Zaap]

I'm curious- where else in the world is anyone enjoying < $4US equivalent gas prices?

 

[unokitty]

I'm curious- where else in the world is anyone enjoying < $4US equivalent gas prices?

In Turkey, where the government finds the fuel tax relatively easy to enforce compared to other taxes, gasoline costs $9.98 at the pump. About 40 percent of the country’s workforce have under-the-table jobs and do not pay taxes, which is why the fuel tax is an important source of revenue that Turkey cannot easily afford to alter.

Norway is a major oil producing country, but the average Norwegian has to shell out $9.97 for a gallon of gas, more than twice the U.S. average. Norway doesn’t subsidize fuel at the pump; instead, it uses oil profits to fund free college education and infrastructure development.

Most Europeans pay a much higher price for gasoline than Americans do, anywhere between $6 and $10 more per gallon.

In oil producing countries in the Middle East like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, gas is dirt cheap. Saudi Arabians pay only $0.45 a gallon at the pump, while those in Kuwait pay just $0.80.

But nowhere in the world is gas quite as cheap as it is in Venezuela. At $0.04 a gallon, it’s practically free...

Prices from 2012.

Global gasoline prices don't seem to follow any particular logic. Four cents a gallon in Venezuela?

Let me know if any of it makes sense to you.

Uno

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Global gasoline prices don't seem to follow any particular logic. Four cents a gallon in Venezuela?

Let me know if any of it makes sense to you.

Uno

Try government subsidies in the case of Venezuela.

 

[Meghan54]

Originally Posted by Londo_Jowo
I found and posted an article a while back that seems to explain what's happening with gas prices in those states.

http://limaohio.com/news/news/146546...e#.VAH9lP0XP1M




Because it is a lie

==========================================
A week ago, Lima area prices flirted with $4 a gallon.

That&#8217;s been the ceiling, with stations beginning to undercut prices by a penny or two.

The competition to churn prices downward continues until no profit margin remains


As prices bottomed out at $3.44 on Thursday afternoon in Lima, stations were losing money
===========================================

If you believe they sell gas for a loss I have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn New York for you.

I never said they sold gas for a loss, the article did. But you have to admit, you scream everytime the gas price around you makes those .40 jumps upward, yet you forget to mention the equal drops you get....or have your gas prices never dropped from any of those "gas went up another .40/gal today" proclamations.

If they never did, damn, you guys must be paying $10/gal, given all those .40 jumps you've had over the last few months. I've counted at least 8 times in the last few months you've proclaimed you've had another .40 jump in price while you've never mentioned any price decreases, leaving the unsuspecting to believe your gas constantly climbs in price by .40 chunks every few weeks.

And, to be honest, the explaination given in the article fits exactly the pattern seen in IN, OH, MI gas prices.... a couple of weeks dropping followed by a fairly quick climb, followed by a couple of weeks of drop, followed by a quick spike, over and over and over.

 

[dmcowen674]

Prices from 2012.

Global gasoline prices don't seem to follow any particular logic. Four cents a gallon in Venezuela?

Let me know if any of it makes sense to you.

Did you know the gasoline in Venezuela comes from the Refineries here?

How do you like paying for Venezuelans gas for them?

 

[dmcowen674]

I never said they sold gas for a loss, the article did. But you have to admit, you scream everytime the gas price around you makes those .40 jumps upward, yet you forget to mention the equal drops you get....or have your gas prices never dropped from any of those "gas went up another .40/gal today" proclamations.

If they never did, damn, you guys must be paying $10/gal, given all those .40 jumps you've had over the last few months. I've counted at least 8 times in the last few months you've proclaimed you've had another .40 jump in price while you've never mentioned any price decreases, leaving the unsuspecting to believe your gas constantly climbs in price by .40 chunks every few weeks.

And, to be honest, the explaination given in the article fits exactly the pattern seen in IN, OH, MI gas prices.... a couple of weeks dropping followed by a fairly quick climb, followed by a couple of weeks of drop, followed by a quick spike, over and over and over.

Ah, that's the problem with assholes like you commenting on an area you don't live and know jack shit about.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

The subsidy is paid by the Venezuelan government as it's purchased from US refineries at wholesale prices.

Did you know Venezuela owns Citgo refining? Citgo has three U.S. refineries in Illinois, Louisiana and Texas with combined capacity of some 750,000 barrels per day.

 

[Meghan54]

Ah, that's the problem with assholes like you commenting on an area you don't live and know jack shit about.

Ahhh, the "argument" one makes when one has nothing left to use for facts...just cuss and attack.

I'm just taking your commentary at face value, Dangling McHemorrhoids. But, a quick trip down memory lane.....




(6-13)

Oil closed near $107

Got 50 cent jump at the gas pumps today.

I expect it to keep making 30 to 50 cent jumps just about everyday now.

(7-17)

Right on cue, got the now standard 30 cent jump in price today.

(8-07)

Got the proverbial 30 cent jump today, now pushing $4 once again.

Still a month out from Labor Day so obviously it will be way over $4, will they push for $5 once again or beyond.

(8-21)

Got the 30 cent jump again tonight.

Still a week and half to Labor Day

And you're right, gas did jump around every point in time you said they did.

Reference the chart below from GasBuddy (which you obviously trust since you use the site as reference) which reflects the last 3 months avg. gas price in Indianapolis, IN. (US avg. price also included for reference):

http://www.GasBuddy.com/gb_retail_p...rage&city2=Indy&city3=&crude=n&tme=3&units=us


But nowhere did I ever see you ever mention the fact that prices DROPPED a like amount in the time periods after your spike. Nada, zilch. Quiet as a church mouse about your prices. All you seem to like to cry about are the spikes, which I can understand are irritating. But to willfully ignore the declines you also experience is just completely dishonest, but that's pretty much par for the course from you, Dave.


And I never saw you ever pontificate on the fact that during July and most of August, despite the spikes and valleys, your gas prices were below the U.S. avg. price.

Instead, twice in August, you know, last month, you decried twice two .30 jumps in price with nothing else, leaving the unread to conclude you've had .60 price increases in gas with no relief, which is not true.

Intellectually dishonest, Dave, at the minimum.

 

[dmcowen674]

Ahhh, the "argument" one makes when one has nothing left to use for facts...just cuss and attack.

I'm just taking your commentary at face value, Dangling McHemorrhoids. But, a quick trip down memory lane.....
(6-13)
(7-17)
(8-07)
(8-21)

And you're right, gas did jump around every point in time you said they did.

Reference the chart below from GasBuddy (which you obviously trust since you use the site as reference) which reflects the last 3 months avg. gas price in Indianapolis, IN. (US avg. price also included for reference):

http://www.GasBuddy.com/gb_retail_p...rage&city2=Indy&city3=&crude=n&tme=3&units=us


But nowhere did I ever see you ever mention the fact that prices DROPPED a like amount in the time periods after your spike. Nada, zilch. Quiet as a church mouse about your prices. All you seem to like to cry about are the spikes, which I can understand are irritating. But to willfully ignore the declines you also experience is just completely dishonest, but that's pretty much par for the course from you, Dave.

And I never saw you ever pontificate on the fact that during July and most of August, despite the spikes and valleys, your gas prices were below the U.S. avg. price.

Instead, twice in August, you know, last month, you decried twice two .30 jumps in price with nothing else, leaving the unread to conclude you've had .60 price increases in gas with no relief, which is not true.

Intellectually dishonest, Dave, at the minimum.

Bunch of blah blah blah, fact remains you spew garbage about an area you do not live and know nothing about yet going a loooong way to acknowledge the wild 30 cent swings I post about when for so long people like you swore were not happening.

But you're not the only one.

So why do people like you have this odd propensity for such spewage?

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Now that summer is offically finished, the shift to the cheaper winter blend should start in the next few weeks.

http://wane.com/2014/09/02/analyst-gas-prices-expected-to-drop-further/

Analyst: Gas prices expected to drop further

FORT WAYNE, Ind. (WANE) &#8211; Average retail gasoline prices in Fort Wayne have risen 9.1 cents per gallon in the past week, averaging $3.52 a gallon on Sunday, August 31, 2014 according to GasBuddy&#8217;s daily survey of 201 gas outlets in Fort Wayne. This compares with the national average that has increased 0.7 cents per gallon in the last week to $3.43 a gallon according to gasoline price website GasBuddy.com which powers wane.com&#8217;s Gas Gauge.

Including the change in gas prices in Fort Wayne during the past week, prices Sunday were 18.1 cents per gallon lower than the same day one year ago and are 7.5 cents per gallon higher than a month ago. The national average has decreased 7.1 cents per gallon during the last month and stands 16.1 cents per gallon lower than this day one year ago.

&#8220;With the summer driving season behind us, motorists can look forward to a national average for gasoline that soon resumes its decline,&#8221; said GasBuddy.com Senior Petroleum Analyst Patrick DeHaan. &#8220;Falling demand and an impending change back to cheaper winter will begin to weigh on current gasoline prices in the next few weeks and by mid-September, much of the nation should see gasoline prices falling once again. Of course, we continue to monitor ever changing geopolitical tensions and hurricane season, but any impact from either should be limited thanks to the drop in demand and shift away from expensive summer blends of gasoline. By October, the national average will likely have declined another 5-10 cents per gallon, and by Halloween, we could see a national average lower than the $3.31 a gallon we saw to start 2014, DeHaan said.

 

[TheSandman21]

If you live in Indianapolis and haven't figured out which stations in the city rise their prices last by now, then there just isn't any hope. Its funny that after the 30 cent jump on Wednesday (which to Dave's credit, DID occur), I still saw stations that had NOT raised their prices to match as late as Friday morning.

And as that 30 cent hike, about half the stations I passed on my way to work this morning have already cut half that hike. One of them had cut 10 cents off the post price hike rate BEFORE Labor Day weekend.

Between knowing what stations to fill up at when prices go up, Kroger discounts and Sams and Costco cards, I can't remember the last time I paid even the average price of gas in Indianapolis. And that's with not tying my bank account to a Rickers or Speedway card to get their 10 cent discounts......

 

[dmcowen674]

TheSandman21
Junior Member

Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 9


If you live in Indianapolis and haven't figured out which stations in the city rise their prices last by now, then there just isn't any hope. Its funny that after the 30 cent jump on Wednesday (which to Dave's credit, DID occur), I still saw stations that had NOT raised their prices to match as late as Friday morning.

And as that 30 cent hike, about half the stations I passed on my way to work this morning have already cut half that hike. One of them had cut 10 cents off the post price hike rate BEFORE Labor Day weekend.

Between knowing what stations to fill up at when prices go up, Kroger discounts and Sams and Costco cards, I can't remember the last time I paid even the average price of gas in Indianapolis. And that's with not tying my bank account to a Rickers or Speedway card to get their 10 cent discounts......

WWYBYWB?

I also notice the stations on the Northeast side of town don't jump as much as the ones on the Northwest side.

Very odd since most stations have to get their fuel from the terminal on the Northwest side at the old Rock Island Refinery facility owned by Buckeye Pipeline on 96th and Zionsville Rd.

 

[brianmanahan]

we need a "2014 dmcowen674-Gasoline-Price-Forecast-Thread Forecast Thread"

- a new sensational gas price article just came out - dave expected to post it within the hour
- %95 chance he will make an unnecessary second comment post
- despite an ever growing mountain of incorrect price predictions, supply of future predictions is still strong

 

[dmcowen674]

we need a "2014 dmcowen674-Gasoline-Price-Forecast-Thread Forecast Thread"

- a new sensational gas price article just came out - dave expected to post it within the hour
- %95 chance he will make an unnecessary second comment post
- despite an ever growing mountain of incorrect price predictions, supply of future predictions is still strong

and there is a 100% chance you will read and post.

Wonder why that is?

 

[TheSandman21]

WWYBYWB?

Damn, it took 15 years of web surfing, but somebody finally been accused me of being a sockpuppet. Can't a guy just lurk and post on rare occasions in this place?

I also notice the stations on the Northeast side of town don't jump as much as the ones on the Northwest side.

Which is why I don't fill up on the NW side except at Costco or Sams Club. I notice the NE side in the Fishers area doesn't drop as fast as other stations.

 

[brianmanahan]

and there is a 100% chance you will read and post.

Wonder why that is?

%50 schadenfreude

%50 neff

 

[Pulsar]

and there is a 100% chance you will read and post.

Wonder why that is?

Because it's just impossible to sit and stay nothing when presented with the level of stupidity that generally results from one of your threads.

 

[dmcowen674]

Let's not leave out the Natural Gas Scammers and Thieves:

9-3-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-natural-gas-prices-hit-130018927.html

Why natural gas prices hit $4 on an expected heat wave



Natural gas prices started inching towards $4 last week. There were doubts about injection levels being sufficient enough to build up natural gas inventories ahead of the winter months.


On August 28, natural gas prices finally touched $4—after consistently staying near $3.70 – $3.90 since July.

A mild summer limited the demand for natural gas. This caused stockpiles to build faster-than-expected. It put pressure on natural gas prices.

Weather outlook


Natural gas prices could be increasing because a heat wave is expected.
According to meteorologists at the MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland, hotter-than-usual weather could be seen in parts of the eastern and central U.S. through September 3.


Warmer temperatures can increase air conditioner usage.



This increases the demand for natural gas.



This is bullish for natural gas prices.

Stronger demand for natural gas can cause significant shortfalls in injections before the winter season starts.

The markets will be watching to see if the inventory levels are sufficient before the winter season begins. If inventory levels are below average when the winter months arrive, it could cause natural gas prices to spike.

 

[AznAnarchy99]

Gas never got near $4 this summer for me. Currently at $3.55 at my local Costco.

 

[dmcowen674]

Another article where they are claiming the Oil Companies are losing money.

9-3-2014

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/09/03/are-oil-prices-about-to-skyrocket.aspx

Are Oil Prices About to Skyrocket?



Oil market fundamentals continue to be strong with high and stable oil prices. Except for very brief periods, oil prices have remained above US$100 for the last 3.5 years, and the global economy continues along its growth path following the financial crisis.


Given that oil markets are strong, one would think oil companies are making a lot of money with oil prices above $100 per barrel. That, however, couldn't be farther from the truth. Seadrill went on to note:


This has been well documented as big oil is simply drowning in high-cost projects.


Large LNG projects like Chevron Corporation's (NYSE: CVX ) Gorgon in Australia have run so far over budget that it has producers holding off on new projects. Gorgon was expected to cost Chevron and its partners $37 billion; however, it's now expected to cost well over $54 billion.



This pullback in spending, however, isn't something that's new to the industry. In fact, according to Seadrill, we saw the same thing just a few years ago, and what happened next as a result of the pullback in spending was a spike in oil prices:



The current situation has some similarities to the situation in 2002-2003, when oil companies had limited free cash flow to develop new reserves. This led to an increase in oil prices between 2003-2008, when Brent moved from approximately US$40 to US$100 and resulted in increased investment by the oil companies.



Most of the world's cheap oil is gone, yet oil producers won't produce expensive oil unless money can be made doing it. At some point, either oil prices will head higher, or costs will have to dramatically come down. Given the direction costs have gone for complex oil supplies like those in the deepwater, I wouldn't be shocked if oil prices did move significantly higher in the future.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

I can't see any difference in my natural gas bill, it still runs around $23/month most of the year and increases to $38/month when the heat is running.

My house has a natural gas stove, water heater, and heater unit.