2014 Gasoline Price Forecast

[dmcowen674]

Perfectly timed incompetences as usual and rewarded big time as usual for said incompetences:

9-25-2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-for-third-day-on-economy-gasoline-gains.html

Gasoline Surges to September High Amid Refinery Outage



Gasoline futures surged to the highest level this month on concern refinery outages will reduce production, threatening higher prices at the pump.
Gasoline in New York rallied following a reported outage at Irving Oil Corp.’s Saint John, New Brunswick, refinery, which exports about half of its production to the Northeast market.

Irving’s Saint John refinery shut an alkylation unit on Sept. 23, Genscape reported yesterday. The No.3 146,000-barrel-a-day crude unit and the 70,000 barrel fluid catalytic cracker remain shut. The refinery exports half of its refined products to the U.S. Northeast.


The refinery is “the ultimate swing producer for light product in the Northeast,” said Tom Finlon, Jupiter, Florida-based director of Energy Analytics Group LLC. “If they lose production, the market gets very tight. That can strengthen the market very quickly.”

Futures have jumped 7.9 percent since Sept. 12. Retail gasoline climbed for a third day yesterday, according to AAA.

The volume of all futures was 52 percent above the 100-day average.

Exxon’s Beaumont, Texas, refinery is running at reduced rates as two fluid catalytic crackers are shut for unplanned maintenance.

“Underlying U.S. gasoline fundamentals are tight largely due to significant FCC outages, and so the rally has fundamental legs,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a report. The strength in Gulf Coast gasoline prices is “suggesting there is potentially some more room for RBOB to rally.”

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Yet, look at all the American and Canadian tradesmen that are making good money during these repairs and/or maintenance working 12+ hours a day, 7 days a week until the work is done.

Why do you hate these hard working Americans and Canadians?

 

[dmcowen674]

Already know this is a crock of shit for those in the Midwest and Northeast.

9-25-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-prices-falling-headed-below-165215187.html

Prices at the pump head below $3 in much of US

Lower crude oil prices, sliding autumn demand could send gas below $3 a gallon in many states

The price of a gallon of gasoline may soon start with a "2'' across much the country.

Gasoline prices typically decline in autumn, and this year they are being pulled even lower by falling global oil prices. By the end of the year, up to 30 states could have an average gasoline price of less than $3 a gallon.


Lower fuel prices help the economy in a few ways. They make goods cheaper to ship and make travel more affordable. Drivers are left with a few extra dollars in their pockets. And consumers grow confident enough to make other purchases, perhaps even a big-ticket item. Consumer spending is 70 percent of the U.S. economy.


Aidan Obrecht, a 20-year-old community college student from Boothwyn, Pennsylvania, said gas in his area has fallen 10 to 20 cents over the past couple of weeks. He paid $3.27 a gallon Thursday to fill up his Ford Taurus on his way to work at a CVS pharmacy.


"I'm living paycheck to paycheck, so it's nice to be able to save" he said. "Even if it's $5 or $10 extra (after a fill-up), it adds up over the long run."


Fall is when refiners are allowed to switch to a cheaper blend of gasoline for the cooler months, and driving demand declines after summer vacations have ended.


Refinery problems or hurricanes can halt the typical autumn price decline temporarily by reducing gasoline production. For example, a reported outage at a refinery in Eastern Canada that supplies the Northeast with gasoline is likely to push the price at the pump slightly higher in some markets over the next few days.


The national average for gasoline is not likely to fall all the way to $3 because of a number of factors.



Some state gasoline taxes have increased.



Loyalty programs that offer discounts to members at many stations keep listed prices higher than what drivers actually pay.


Some analysts, including Bernstein Research's Oswald Clint, predict oil will soon head back up as OPEC countries respond to lower prices by cutting back and consumers respond by burning more fuel.


Phil Flynn, an oil analyst at Price Futures Group, expects an even bigger decline as U.S. oil companies produce more oil, refiners make more gasoline and demand for gasoline stays relatively low because of more fuel-efficient vehicles.


"For the regular driver, it's the best of times," he said. "Many are going to be shocked at how low prices go, but I'm saying 'get used to it.'"

 

[dmcowen674]

Awesome, hope Texans get the highest jump but doubtful sadly.

Of course all my adoring fans in here will never admit that I was right once again that their Oil Thug buddies would find the usual excuses to raise prices yet again when they are suppose to be dropping.

As Sulu would say, Oh My

9-25-2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...aten-to-raise-u-s-pump-prices.html?cmpid=yhoo

Refinery Shutdowns Interrupt U.S. Pump Price Decline

Refinery breakdowns have pushed wholesale gasoline in the Gulf Coast to the highest level since July, halting a drop in pump prices across the U.S.

Gasoline in the Gulf, home to more than half of U.S. refining capacity, has jumped 20 cents a gallon in the past two weeks. October-delivery futures contracts, the benchmark for gasoline sold across the country, are the highest this month.



U.S. retail prices, which tend to lag behind moves in the spot and futures markets, have risen 0.7 cent in three days, after falling every day since Sept. 5.


Prices have climbed as refineries in eastern Canada and Texas have been forced to shut units for unplanned repairs at a time when other plants are conducting seasonal maintenance. Hedge funds and other speculators were the most bearish in four years as of Sept. 16, adding fuel to the rally.


“Clearly the tightness is a result of significant FCC works, largely unplanned,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. “If you combine that with the number of shorts in the gasoline market, which were very high as well, it means that you are seeing a very strong rally.”

On Sept. 15, the Environmental Protection Agency allows retailers to start selling winter gasoline, which can have higher higher vapor pressure and therefore contain more lower-cost butane.

“By nature the market is backwardated, so there are lean inventories as it is,” said Eric Rosenfeldt, vice president of supply and trading at Papco Inc. in Virginia Beach, Virginia. “You add to that Irving and Come by Chance, whether because of turnarounds or other issues, you take that supply out of the market, and you’ve got problems.”

Offline Capacity

The amount of fluid catalytic cracking capacity offline in Texas is at the highest level for this time of year since at least 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The units break down vacuum gasoil to produce fuel including gasoline and diesel.


Companies including Alon USA Energy Inc., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Citgo Petroleum Corp. have reported equipment failures just as plants from Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s Galveston Bay complex to Phillips 66’s Sweeny site shut units for scheduled repairs.

“The physical markets are relatively tight,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, said by telephone today. “We had four glitches just yesterday. It’s set off a bit of a panic.”

 

[Pulsar]

Awesome, hope Texans get the highest jump but doubtful sadly.

There's Dave, wishing ill will on others because of jealousy. Sad. Just Sad.

After all these dire predictions, prices STILL haven't jumped. You'd think that Dave with all these experts would somehow manage to generate a semi-correct prediction once in a while.... yet he doesn't.

It's like he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about.... and neither do they. Of course, if they actually KNEW what gas prices were going to do, they wouldn't be making predictions. They'd be rich laying on a beach somewhere sunning themselves.

 

[Vic]

Yet, look at all the American and Canadian tradesmen that are making good money during these repairs and/or maintenance working 12+ hours a day, 7 days a week until the work is done.

Why do you hate these hard working Americans and Canadians?

Because he's an attention whore?

 

[dmcowen674]

There's Dave, wishing ill will on others because of jealousy. Sad. Just Sad.

After all these dire predictions, prices STILL haven't jumped. You'd think that Dave with all these experts would somehow manage to generate a semi-correct prediction once in a while.... yet he doesn't.

It's like he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about....

and neither do they. Of course, if they actually KNEW what gas prices were going to do, they wouldn't be making predictions.

They'd be rich laying on a beach somewhere sunning themselves.

Prices may not have jumped for you but certainly has in many parts of the country as written in the articles and experienced by posters in here, not just me. You refute them all?

I'm sure Tom Kloza at Oil Service based in Washington DC suns himself quite often.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally Posted by Londo_Jowo
Yet, look at all the American and Canadian tradesmen that are making good money during these repairs and/or maintenance working 12+ hours a day, 7 days a week until the work is done.

Why do you hate these hard working Americans and Canadians?

Because he's an attention whore?

I have both American and Canadien friends such as my buddy Nef that works in the Oil Sands.

 

[Pulsar]

Prices may not have jumped for you but certainly has in many parts of the country as written in the articles and experienced by posters in here, not just me. You refute them all?

I'm sure Tom Kloza at Oil Service based in Washington DC suns himself quite often.

So.... It's gone up in some places, and down in others.

Are you EVER going to have a point?

 

[dmcowen674]

So.... It's gone up in some places, and down in others.

Are you EVER going to have a point?

You're here just like the rest of my fans.

You want to be special too?

Speaking of Fans. I asked earlier, what happened to Doppel? Did he get banned and now an RBM?

 

[Pulsar]

You're here just like the rest of my fans.

You want to be special too?

Speaking of Fans. I asked earlier, what happened to Doppel? Did he get banned and now an RBM?

I'm here, because at some level I hope that people like you eventually figure out reality. Or, barring that, perhaps just get some help so you begin to understand how messed up you are. Denial isn't healthy.

Until you do, I'll be happy to keep pointing our your double standards, hypocrisy, and laughing right along with every one else at your insanity.

 

[dmcowen674]

I'm here, because at some level I hope that people like you eventually figure out reality. Or, barring that, perhaps just get some help so you begin to understand how messed up you are. Denial isn't healthy.

Until you do, I'll be happy to keep pointing our your double standards, hypocrisy, and laughing right along with every one else at your insanity.

OK, you're a special fan too. Obviously you felt left out.

Can't let that happen.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Because he's an attention whore?

He's mentally ill, a coward, dumb, AND an attention whore to be more exact. I seriously believe he doesn't know he is the laughingstock of the forum.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

OK, you're a special fan too. Obviously you felt left out.

Can't let that happen.

Hey look, Dave can't take the heat and is going to block someone else that owned him. I know I'm shocked.

 

[Meghan54]

He's mentally ill, a coward, dumb, AND an attention whore to be more exact. I seriously believe he doesn't know he is the laughingstock of the forum.

Seriously?

Hey look, Dave can't take the heat and is going to block someone else that owned him. I know I'm shocked.

Shocked, I tells you!

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Awesome, hope Texans get the highest jump but doubtful sadly.

Look like you need to break out the Boudreaux's Butt Paste.

http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/09/23/6144009/gas-prices-still-falling-despite.html

In North Texas, some gas stations on Tuesday were selling a gallon of gas for under $3 a gallon.

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/09/23/6144009/gas-prices-still-falling-despite.html#storylink=cpy​

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gas-under-3-can-be-found-in-28-states-2014-09-22

Gas under $3 can be found today in 28 states

 

[Pulsar]

Hey look, Dave can't take the heat and is going to block someone else that owned him. I know I'm shocked.

Are you serious? That's what he means by a special fan?

So his reaction to things he doesn't like is to stick his fingers in his ears and yell "NA NA NA" like a 2nd grader.

 

[brianmanahan]

i cant wait till the 2015 edition of Gasoline Price Forecast

 

[dmcowen674]

i cant wait till the 2015 edition of Gasoline Price Forecast

Yes indeed, to see me right yet once again against all the Oil Thug supporters in here.

Here is the Headlines showing me right against them yet again this yer, no need to wait till next year:

9-29-2014

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-28/refinery-failures-spur-bets-on-higher-u-s-gasoline.html


Refinery Failures Spur Bets on Higher U.S. Gasoline



Speculators increased wagers on higher U.S. gasoline prices by the most since February as refinery closures constricted supply.



The net-long position jumped 45 percent from a four-year low as hedge funds pared record short bets and added long wagers for the first time in six weeks, weekly U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data through Sept. 23 show.



“People have covered their positions or moved away from short to long,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. in London, said by phone Sept. 26. “There’s a huge amount of FCC outages in North America at the moment,” she said, referring to fluid catalytic crackers that make gasoline.


Retail prices rose in the three days ended Sept. 24, stemming a 16-day decline. The national average was $3.34 on Sept. 27, according to Heathrow, Florida-based AAA, the largest U.S. motoring group.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

$3.01 this morning in St. Louis.

 

[CPA]

$2.99 in Houston

 

[fskimospy]

$3.01 this morning in St. Louis.

$3.01? That's moving towards $4!

Which is moving towards $5.

Which is moving towards $100.

$100 gas is on the way! DAVE WAS RIGHT.

 

[Meghan54]

We've stalled at $2.92....been there for four days now.

 

[dmcowen674]

eskimospy
Lifer

Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: New York, NY
Posts: 32,867


$3.01? That's moving towards $4!

Which is moving towards $5.

Which is moving towards $100.

$100 gas is on the way! DAVE WAS RIGHT.

Are you paying $3 in New York?

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Are you paying $3 in New York?

Highly doubtful since they have the 2nd highest gasoline taxes in the U.S. It appears that the "Government Thugs" are more greedy than the "Oil Thugs"!

http://www.taxfoundation.org/sites/taxfoundation.org/files/docs/Gas Taxes Apr 2014.png