<< Now my question: is CPU manufacturing pretty much the same (namely using fallout) or can the target speed be hit quite accurately? >>
It's pretty much the same.
<< not only are they binned, they are sometimes artificially binned, or so it would seem. Like the new P4's that Intel is selling as 1.6GHz seem to run pretty predictably at higher than 2GHz. So even though their process is good and produces high quality yields, Intel can somehow make more money selling them as 1.6s than 2.2s. >>
Intel's bins can usually be accurately gauged by simply looking at the cost per MHz on a graph. As soon as you do this, you'll notice that you can get more MHz (or GHz in this case) without spending any money at all up to a point. At that point, the price starts to rise.
Prices from Newegg.com
Pentium 4 1.5GHz $130
Pentium 4 1.6GHz $130
Pentium 4 1.7GHz $135
Pentium 4 1.8GHz $177
Pentium 4 1.9GHz $207
Pentium 4 2.0GHz $249
Pentium 4 2.2GHz $378
Pentium 4 2.4GHz $530
So somewhere around 1.8GHz the price starts to rise and somewhere around 2GHz it starts rise quickly. This shows the Guassian distribution of frequencies through economics.
People will say, as wbwither and Wango have said in this thread, that really the bin curve is much higher than this because overclockers can achieve high gains with low frequency parts. One point to keep in mind is that Intel (and AMD, and everyone else who designs CMOS semiconductors) designates a CPU to operate at the specified frequency over the life of the part under worst case operating conditions. So the CPU should work at the highest spec'd temperature, under the lowest spec'd core voltage, across a range of motherboards of varying quality, on every possible program that can be run, for the lifetime of the processor. I see people in various threads saying that Prime95 is not a valid test of stability because it will fail CPU's that are otherwise fine. I see people talk about what power supply to get and a lot of threads about what heatsink to get and how to cool your case effectively. I would like to see anyone take their amazing overclocked 1.6 CPU's and run them at 70C with the core voltage turned down to 1.3V (the minimum spec), run Prime95 on a no-name motherboard from some manufacturer that no one has ever heard of and then tell me that it will continuously operate like this for seven years (CMOS semiconductors slow down with time).
I'm not arguing whether or not parts are binned below their rated spec. I really don't know either way for a fact, and, being an employee of Intel I'd hesitate to speculate. But what I am saying is that people are using overclocking results to back up their speculations without considering that these specific systems are carefully optimized. I'd suggest run them at the worst case spec and then substract out some for the eventual slow-down of the electronics with time and then check against the rated speed.
Patrick Mahoney
Microprocessor Design Engineer
Intel Corp.