Discussion Ada/'Lovelace'? Next gen Nvidia gaming architecture speculation

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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,743
5,374
136
That has to be a guess. I he doesn't know whether it is going to be produced, he certainly can't know whether it will be marketed as a 4090 Ti or as a Titan.

Given that the 4090 is apparently 126 SMs, there's room for a less cut model that could be used for the 4090 Ti.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,636
3,095
136
What's the performance guesswork predicting for the 4060? I'm guessing it performs like a 3070 with the MSRP of a 3080. They will justify the price by claiming they made a real conscious AI in the GPU die that grows to secretly love and care about you, so it's more like buying a pet.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
7,961
6,312
136

Rumor that the 4060 will use more power than the 3070 (which stock is 220 W). I am skeptical that nVidia would have finalized it so far away from release. Also AD106 only has 36 SMs so for 220 it better be clocked like over 3 Ghz.

Since there's supposedly a 103 die, there's a chance that the 4060 uses a cut down 104 die this time around. That would square with this rumor a bit better at least. The xx60 part has traditionally used the third largest die, this time it's just a 104 die instead of a 106 as it typically would be.

GA104 had 30 SMs, so it would be a bit usual to see so little of a bump, even if there are clock improvements. That even assumes the 4060 uses the full die when the desktop 3060 had a couple of SMs disabled. If this rumor is to be believed (perhaps this is being mistaken for the 4060 Ti) then it does seem more likely that it's because it's using AD104 and not AD106.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,743
5,374
136
Somewhere between 3070 and 3080.

Since there's supposedly a 103 die, there's a chance that the 4060 uses a cut down 104 die this time around. That would square with this rumor a bit better at least. The xx60 part has traditionally used the third largest die, this time it's just a 104 die instead of a 106 as it typically would be.

I suspect nVidia is going to "downgrade" the tiers to somewhat hide the price hikes like how the 4090 is taking the spot of what would normally be the 80 Ti. The 4060 might not even be the full AD106.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,743
5,374
136

I'm guessing this ends up being the 4080 Ti, but this rumored AD103 SKU might be 420 W at stock.
 

SteinFG

Senior member
Dec 29, 2021
498
591
106
If 4080's AD103 is really 40% smaller than AD102, then this is some packed heat -> probably 300W going through a 380mm die, with 120 left for other board components.
Not impossible though i think, as intel shows with 12900K's 250W in a 208mm die
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,743
5,374
136
The 3080 was excellent value compared to 2080 at launch with MSRP prices, unfortunately it was impossible to find one. :/

Even without mining, that was a fake price intended to squeeze AMD. No squeezing this gen.
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,320
4,852
136
Even without mining, that was a fake price intended to squeeze AMD. No squeezing this gen.
If it had actually worked, it would have been a win for the consumer. Competition is good, and for that reason alone I would really like Intel to get their act together.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,272
6,758
136
Even without mining, that was a fake price intended to squeeze AMD. No squeezing this gen.
I think the choice of using SS8 had a lot to do with being able to squeeze the price they did. With Lovelace on a comparable node as RDNA3, the costs are probably also comparable excluding any kind of advanced packaging.

Nvidia can call it whatever they want, but the fact that AD103 is roughly 400mm2 on 4N is in line with what traditionally has been a 104 class die since Kepler. Said another way, the xx80 series has traditionally been a 400mm2 die and the xx80 Ti / xx90 / Titan series is the 600mm2 die, and for Nvidia to use the 400mm2 die for the 4080 is a return to form. The fact that Ampere was able to use a cut down large die (about 20%) at the prices it launched at tells you a lot about what pricing SS8 afforded Nvidia.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,636
3,095
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I've seen some youtube dude's 4070 analysis and he basically said a 4070 will perform like a 3080 and cost slightly less than...a 3080. LOL. The real generational upgrade comes from the 4080 and above, and if you want that real upgrade then I think you know it will COST YOU BIG TIME. Basically a punishment for wanting that upgrade. No value to speak of here, just vindictive profiteering, like offering kindergarteners candy they can't refuse in exchange for their shoes or something. A bunch of barefoot, sad little children is the result of all this.
 
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CakeMonster

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2012
1,402
505
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some youtube dude
There's your problem right there.

But on a serious note, 2xxx/Turing basically kept the price for the same performance level as 1xxx and added the 2080Ti performance tier. DLSS/RT wasn't a useful feature until 1-2 years later. NVidia could get away with it in 2018.

2022 is different, not only is NVidia making a huge jump from Samsung 8 to TSMC 5, but AMD 6xxx was very competitive and there is a 7xxx generation coming. With crypto being less of a factor, a theoretical 4070 will definitely be cheaper than a 3080 if they match in performance.

You might end up not being far off with regards to pricing, but that depends on NVidia being really brazen and counting on (or knowing) that AMD will be late and/or underperform. I've seen so many stupid takes by clickbaiters on YT who are just doing what we're doing here but want to get paid for it. I'm beyond being surprised by pricing or company behavior, but there are definitely market trends and node advances pointing to price/performance improvements, and only a worsening chip crisis will 100% negate that (not likely IMO).
 
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moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,636
3,095
136
There's your problem right there.

But on a serious note, 2xxx/Turing basically kept the price for the same performance level as 1xxx and added the 2080Ti performance tier. DLSS/RT wasn't a useful feature until 1-2 years later. NVidia could get away with it in 2018.

2022 is different, not only is NVidia making a huge jump from Samsung 8 to TSMC 5, but AMD 6xxx was very competitive and there is a 7xxx generation coming. With crypto being less of a factor, a theoretical 4070 will definitely be cheaper than a 3080 if they match in performance.

You might end up not being far off with regards to pricing, but that depends on NVidia being really brazen and counting on (or knowing) that AMD will be late and/or underperform. I've seen so many stupid takes by clickbaiters on YT who are just doing what we're doing here but want to get paid for it. I'm beyond being surprised by pricing or company behavior, but there are definitely market trends and node advances pointing to price/performance improvements, and only a worsening chip crisis will 100% negate that (not likely IMO).

Nvidia, like all businesses, are about maximum possible profit. It's really simple. They know people are willing to pay WAY more for the same product, so price/performance will go down. It's just that easy. They will offer the upgrade people want but it will come at an upgraded cost as well. Yet another price hike is inbound. They will easily get away with it because gamers clearly love paying more for the same stuff. It makes them feel 1337.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,743
5,374
136

Videocardz is now saying that the 4090 launch has been pushed to September. AIBs even think that the inventory problem is bad enough there might be an official 30 Series price cut coming.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,783
4,759
136
Gentleman's bet. Prices stagnant at worst for next gen. Margins are important, but unit sales more so. It's not the wealthy enthusiast that drives sales, but those on the margin and everyone is moving down a tier economically. Dream all you want, but credit has limits.
 
Reactions: amenx

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,282
2,969
136
Gentleman's bet. Prices stagnant at worst for next gen. Margins are important, but unit sales more so. It's not the wealthy enthusiast that drives sales, but those on the margin and everyone is moving down a tier economically. Dream all you want, but credit has limits.
I think you're optimistic. Nvidia and AMD have a finite quantity of N5 GPUs they can make. They will price higher than last generation, except maybe the 4090 which last gen was so absurd they needn't increase it further.

AD104 chips will be more expensive than similarly cut down GA104. But the midlife refresh might actually bring a price cut this generation for reasons you outlined.
 

amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
3,993
2,245
136
Nvidia and AMD have a finite quantity of N5 GPUs they can make.
My impression was that Nvidia paid $ billions up front to TSMC to get a larger slice of the N5 pie than they had with SS N8 to avoid the sort of shortages they had with Ampere. With mining almost out of the picture and a potential flood of used Ampere cards that may show up on ebay, they may have a hard time moving their new cards in the sort of volumes they would like.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,743
5,374
136
My impression was that Nvidia paid $ billions up front to TSMC to get a larger slice of the N5 pie than they had with SS N8 to avoid the sort of shortages they had with Ampere.

The shortages with Ampere was entirely mining driven. There's no amount of cards they could have made to satisfy the demand. It was effectively unlimited.

You are talking about the biggest gen-on-gen increase in the company's history.
 

amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
3,993
2,245
136
The shortages with Ampere was entirely mining driven. There's no amount of cards they could have made to satisfy the demand. It was effectively unlimited.

You are talking about the biggest gen-on-gen increase in the company's history.
Doesnt change the point. Let me repeat: with mining almost out of the picture this time around, and much more supply this time around, things look vastly different.

 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,743
5,374
136
Doesnt change the point. Let me repeat: with mining almost out of the picture this time around, and much more supply this time around, things look vastly different.


I'm sure that includes Hopper & Grace. Maybe some other products too.

And I also bet there's a lot of people out there who gave up trying to get a card and decided to wait.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,783
4,759
136
My impression was that Nvidia paid $ billions up front to TSMC to get a larger slice of the N5 pie than they had with SS N8 to avoid the sort of shortages they had with Ampere. With mining almost out of the picture and a potential flood of used Ampere cards that may show up on ebay, they may have a hard time moving their new cards in the sort of volumes they would like.
For some reason, this point keeps getting ignored. Nvidia has to sell a lot of cards to recover the investment. Margins sound nice but you need total sales quantities. I find the assumption that there is unlimited demand for high priced cards a fantasy ignoring disposable incomes. Sometimes its difficult to see trends clearly when inside a situation. People worldwide are and going to be getting effectively poorer. Prices at the margin will determine the trend, and for now, it's heading down. Things have fundamentally changed. Many project a trend beyond where it makes sense, then they start all over again with the new one.

The smart buyers might dream of the latest, but their pockets will choose what they can afford. Only a few months more to see.
 
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amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
3,993
2,245
136
I'm sure that includes Hopper & Grace. Maybe some other products too.

And I also bet there's a lot of people out there who gave up trying to get a card and decided to wait.
Pretty sure pent up demand will be a big factor for first few weeks after launch. But other potentials mentioned (drastically reduced mining demand, flood of used cards when the ETH merge occurs), increased supply that cannot move in volume at high prices, and we may have a healthy buyers market for GPUs. OTOH, supply chain issues may still be a problem as well as other unknowns.
 

CakeMonster

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2012
1,402
505
136
For some reason, this point keeps getting ignored. Nvidia has to sell a lot of cards to recover the investment. Margins sound nice but you need total sales quantities.

They will probably have around two years to do it though. And Intel is only competing on the low end and I would suspect they will need 1-2 years or more to get volume on mid and high end. Given the backlog of people wanting to upgrade, and AMD being on TSMC as well, I don't suspect NV is in all that much trouble.

However, I can imagine that they might suffer on some quarterly results because sales might be 'slow', but getting rid of the chips for acceptable prices during the lifetime of 4xxx I don't think will be an issue.
 
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