Not sure about most hyperscalar market, Tencent and Alibaba would definitely not be using any ARM or x86 chips within 5 years that is for sure. Both have own in house designs.With the current projection (which is obviously not set in stone) these will become a niche market and ARM will take most of the hyperscaler market via going vertical (e.g. designing their own chips). That's at least half the market
Forgot about Tencent and Alibaba, but going in-house is still a decline for x86.Not sure about most hyperscalar market, Tencent and Alibaba would definitely not be using any ARM or x86 chips within 5 years that is for sure. Both have own in house designs.
Azure and GCP are currently not developing anything for now for use in public facing instances.
Leaves only Amazon for now. IBM and Oracle in the future?
I want to add that some companies providing IT equipment are using in house design too, like Seagate's RISC-V design, You can read it here
Führend im Bereich der Massenspeicher | Seagate Deutschland
Seagate ist führend im Bereich der Massendatenspeicherung. In den letzten vier Jahrzehnten haben wir eine Speicherkapazität von mehr als vier Milliarden Terabyte ausgeliefert. Wir entwickeln skalierbaren Speicher und stärken Vertrauen und Integrität für Innovationen, die auf Daten aufbauen. In...www.seagate.com
Azure and GCP are currently not developing anything for now for use in public facing instances.
So did SPARC, so does PowerPC (that's still around but certainly losing ground).
I agree that there are loads of enterprise clients that won't switch even in a decade, even if ARM were 5x faster (I know companies where just the x86 -> x64 transition took 10 years). These will never be the majority of the market though.
With the current projection (which is obviously not set in stone) these will become a niche market and ARM will take most of the hyperscaler market via going vertical (e.g. designing their own chips). That's at least half the market.
The threat is not from ARM Ltd. mainly, but big Customers like Amazon, Tencent, Alibaba developing everything in house. They could be using RISC-V if they wish.
Don't mistake seeing potential future tendencies for excitement.You guys seem hyped by all the big companies going in-house CPUs ... I only see less options for the DIY market as all those companies are struggling to get fab space ... scary!
I had thought that with the coming 5nm production at TSMC for the next AMD CPUs that the supply for the new consoles would be freed, but no, Sony said that they don't expect a significant improvement in the production anytime soon.
Who's going to produce them? TSMC has already announced they will have supply issues into 2022.AMD still has a massive amount of Zen 3 products that haven't even been announced yet, never mind the massive GPU shortage that's plaguing everyone. Even if Sony and Microsoft didn't want to increase their own orders, there are a lot of things that AMD could be doing with 7nm wafers right now. I'm not even sure that having 5nm products will allow them to reach some kind of equilibrium.
Perhaps the announced shortages was made after they took AMD (and other major customers) growing orders into consideration?Who's going to produce them? TSMC has already announced they will have supply issues into 2022.
Chip manufacturer TSMC warns shortages could continue through 2022 - The Verge
Who's going to produce them? TSMC has already announced they will have supply issues into 2022.
Chip manufacturer TSMC warns shortages could continue through 2022 - The Verge
I find it odd that it can be said "massive amount of Zen 3 products" while the manufacture is currently dealing with supply issues and has gone as far as to say that there will continue to be issues into next year.Perhaps the announced shortages was made after they took AMD (and other major customers) growing orders into consideration?
I find it odd that it can be said "massive amount of Zen 3 products" while the manufacture is currently dealing with supply issues and has gone as far as to say that there will continue to be issues into next year.
"In 2023, I hope we can offer more capacity to support our customers. At that time, we’ll start to see the supply chain tightness release a little bit.” TSMC.
Using TSMC isn't a negative and is an advantage for AMD right now, but it's a bit silly to suggest there is no negative with the current supply issues and trying to ignore or talk around the fact that even TSMC itself said it is having supply issues, well that's just silly.
The bold basically proved my point. You have someone saying they have a massive amount of Zen3 products coming, but they can't even support their current demand and the issue is only going to continue into 2022, according to the manufacture.Being able to supply extra mfg when there is no extra mfg to meet a demand way beyond expectations / predictions is not really a problem, just, pandemic side effect.
AMD did not expect to sell through the initial run of retail 5k series as quickly is they did and then demand to remain so high for them. It was / is not normal compared to all the past Zen launches. Go look it up, it is all out there.
The bold basically proved my point. You have someone saying they have a massive amount of Zen3 products coming, but they can't even support their current demand and the issue is only going to continue into 2022, according to the manufacture.
The point is only proven by the fact that Sony and MS knew what demand there was for both consoles. They've both had the same issues because they are relying on TSMC on the supply chain and it just hasn't been able to keep up with all the demand. That's my only point and it doesn't make sense to say "oh we have all these products coming!", when they can't even meet the demand now.
Also, if AMD didn't realize in Nov. that demand was going to be huge? That's just poor forecasting on their part. They knew the 3k series were selling well and performing well. They also knew about the pandemic and the rise in WFH and overall demand. Plus they were touting these huge performance gains. Plus, we're 6 months later and some parts are still almost impossible to get.
At the end of the day, the demand is a good problem to have. I was just point out the silly comment that AMD has "massive amounts" of products ready to go. That's great and all, but we are talking in circles and no one has still been able to answer the question
"Who's going to produce them? TSMC has already announced they will have supply issues into 2022."
That's what I specifically asked. TSMC can't automatically ramp up manufacturing when they don't have the facilities to spare. So making that statement is a bit silly.
They actually didn't, both projected less demand and as such ordered less than they now would like to have.The point is only proven by the fact that Sony and MS knew what demand there was for both consoles.
They actually didn't, both projected less demand and as such ordered less than they now would like to have.
These are no supply issues but planning and projection issues. Were AMD, Sony, MS, all the car manufacturers etc. correctly projecting the current demand a couple years ago, TSMC could have adapted to that demand and invested in more capacity accordingly. But of course nobody was expecting the effect the pandemic has, car manufacturer even ditched their orders and now complain about not being able to get that back.
Looking at DC and other margins I think they have started to hurt, but covered up by market increase.AMD doesn't have the volume yet to really hurt Intel so I'm sure Intel's digestion comments are true to some extent, but they are definitely trying to use it to mask the fact that they are both losing market share to AMD and ARM solutions as well as having to offer significant discounts in the presence of stiff competition.
Until now they had no real competitive GPU for half a decade, nothing on the high end. So ilI think GPU growth will be significant part.AMD's console/semi-custom revenue isn't expected to see significant growth (and will most likely shrink) in the next few years, so almost all their growth should be CPU/GPU related and most likely heavy on the CPU.
Apple's ability for apparently correctly projecting future demand and ensuring no bottlenecks in its whole supply chains is second to none in all kinds of industries. I can imagine that Apple does include quite a bit of optimistic overhead capacity for "worst case" best case scenarios that are then paid off as investment into future capacity (like TSMC is essentially building the initial capacity of each node specifically for Apple, and very likely is paid well for doing so regardless of later utilization). For this reason it would indeed be interesting to hear details on what caused the potential supply constraints for display drivers.I found it interesting that Apple is only warning about potential supply constraints for iPads and laptops - reportedly this is over LCD display drivers which are not made in a leading edge process. Dunno where the ones they use are made. Maybe one of the fabs in Texas affected by the power outages a couple months ago, or the Renesas fab affected by fire? Apple is pretty good about making sure they have what they'll need by prebuying huge capacities of critical components like flash, RAM, etc. Maybe they assumed a commodity like display drivers would never be in a shortage?
Anyway, despite wildly exceeding even the most optimistic analyst expectations for sales of iPhone, iPad and Mac they've obviously had no problems getting sufficient 5nm wafers from TSMC to meet those large volumes. Either Apple's internal projections were way ahead of where analysts were (since they have not been giving guidance during the pandemic, analysts are left guessing in the dark) or their agreement with TSMC is pretty flexible. Obviously every leading edge wafer delivered to Apple is one less for everyone else, so a flexible agreement allowing Apple to get more when their sales increase is bad news for everyone else. But maybe that's what paying years in advance for leading edge capacity gets you.
I found it interesting that Apple is only warning about potential supply constraints for iPads and laptops - reportedly this is over LCD display drivers which are not made in a leading edge process. Dunno where the ones they use are made. Maybe one of the fabs in Texas affected by the power outages a couple months ago, or the Renesas fab affected by fire? Apple is pretty good about making sure they have what they'll need by prebuying huge capacities of critical components like flash, RAM, etc. Maybe they assumed a commodity like display drivers would never be in a shortage?
Anyway, despite wildly exceeding even the most optimistic analyst expectations for sales of iPhone, iPad and Mac they've obviously had no problems getting sufficient 5nm wafers from TSMC to meet those large volumes. Either Apple's internal projections were way ahead of where analysts were (since they have not been giving guidance during the pandemic, analysts are left guessing in the dark) or their agreement with TSMC is pretty flexible. Obviously every leading edge wafer delivered to Apple is one less for everyone else, so a flexible agreement allowing Apple to get more when their sales increase is bad news for everyone else. But maybe that's what paying years in advance for leading edge capacity gets you.