AMD Q4 results

[pablo87]

Where did they say that ??

It's in the Pr or the sec filing, not sure which one. Sorry, I'm lazy.

 

[pablo87]

You don't gamble on a company. You invest in them.

Warren Buffet didn't gamble with his money.

Makes sense then.

To tell the truth, I completely forgot the write-off was this quarter.

Not really. The Buffet era is done, the new world belongs to gamblers. ()

 

[Centauri]

^My gambling pile is up 10% today. I sure hope the street doesn't learn about the consensus on the Anandtech forums.

 

[Zor Prime]

If the street noted AT consensus AMD would become a penny stock overnight.

 

[pablo87]

Intel's net income is down 15% as well. I guess it's been a bad year for PC's?

It's actually much worse than that in reality. they are now going into their 3rd year of a $12B CAPEX cadence with ballooning PP&E because depreciation is not keeping up at all. not to mention taxes are less.

 

[pablo87]

Thanks Kumar. See you then. :thumbsup:

So funny

 

[mrmt]

So wait, now you believe the numbers AMD execs are giving out. Isn't it funny how things can change overnight! :biggrin:

I'm sure you've read every single article about it and can tell where the vast majority of that 20% is coming from by the end of the year. I certainly can.

I didn't say that I do believe AMD numbers, but I do belive they are at least working to get that target and that we can at least assume this 20% number as a baseline scenario for an analysis.

In any case, use an official AMD target, regardless of the quality of the executive team providing it, is far better to use *your* numbers that seemed pulled out of nowhere. How did you get this number, what are your assumptions, how $ per unit you are estimating and why are you estimating such a high value?

When I said that I don't think AMD will take another WSA charge before Q3, I explained why, I posted here my assumptions and everyone here is free to criticize or correct me if necessary. You didn't the same with your 1 billion number except throw something like "it's an upgrade year" and then everyone must assume you are correct.

What I complained of your post is that you pulled a number out of thin air. Assumming that MSFT and Sony can sell 20.000.000 of new consoles in 2013, which they won't, as the year has already started and the launch hasn't happened, your 1.000.000.000 dollars number would translate in a whopping 50USD in royalties per chip sold. This is *far* above what AMD is estimating for the entire year, and quite frankly, quite above what IBM, Nvidia and AMD got in the last generation.

So now here we are. You can explain your numbers and we go ahead and learn a thing or two from each other, or I'll disregard your posts as flame baits. The ball is in your court.

 

[notty22]

Gulp.
http://www.4-traders.com/ADVANCED-MICRO-DEVICES-I-11634/financials/

 

[pablo87]

^My gambling pile is up 10% today. I sure hope the street doesn't learn about the consensus on the Anandtech forums.

Good job, I'm a little dwn but up with MU the latest PC monopolist.:biggrin:

 

[Ajay]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/...122?utm_medium=referral&;utm_source=pulsenews

Reuters - Advanced Micro Devices Inc has hired two senior engineers with experience at Qualcomm Inc and Apple Inc, its latest high-level recruitments as it diversifies beyond a slowing personal computer industry, sources close to the chipmaker said.

 

[gammaray]

LOL. Where did you get $5 Billion from?

afaik, it was 1B not 5B but don't quote me on this.

but even so, 1B is about what AMD loses every year...

 

[Phynaz]

Bloomberg is reporting AMD's X86 server market share is 4%.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Bloomberg is reporting AMD's X86 server market share is 4%.

Betcha it drops when Avoton + Xeon E5/E7 v2 show up.

 

[SiliconWars]

What I complained of your post is that you pulled a number out of thin air. Assumming that MSFT and Sony can sell 20.000.000 of new consoles in 2013, which they won't, as the year has already started and the launch hasn't happened, your 1.000.000.000 dollars number would translate in a whopping 50USD in royalties per chip sold. This is *far* above what AMD is estimating for the entire year, and quite frankly, quite above what IBM, Nvidia and AMD got in the last generation.

So now here we are. You can explain your numbers and we go ahead and learn a thing or two from each other, or I'll disregard your posts as flame baits. The ball is in your court.

AMD made it clear, they expect over $1 billion from embedded by the end of this year. Where else is it coming from?

Are you forgetting AMD is also in the Wii U? So that's all 3 consoles over the entire year.

From this link http://forums.highdefdigest.com/gam...y-2007-worldwide-console-sales-ps3-360-a.html we can see the 360 and PS3 sold over 13 million units in 2007 in America, Japan and Europe alone. You think adding the Wii to that and China would take it above 20 million because I do. So now you're looking at less than $50 - quite a bit less actually - per unit for providing cpu and gpu. Yes, it's very doable.

It might not quite make $1 billion but it'll be closer to $1 billion than the ridiculous claims of $200 million that some people are hoping for.

 

[SiliconWars]

Bloomberg is reporting AMD's X86 server market share is 4%.

Funnily enough AMD probably make more from selling Atom's in Seamicro fabric.

 

[Ajay]

Bloomberg is reporting AMD's X86 server market share is 4%.

Ouch! I was hoping (for AMD's sake) the Abu Dhabi would help them a bit. Oh, I guess we wouldn't really see results till the next couple of quarters based on the release date.

 

[Genx87]

What dollar amount per unit does AMD recieve per unit on these consoles? afaik AMD isnt selling chips but sold a design and recieves a royalty per part. Microsoft and Nintendo fab the design.

 

[Acanthus]

LOL. Where did you get $5 Billion from?

1.25B, sorry. 5B was the amount the originating lawsuit was calling for before the settlement.

 

[mrmt]

So now you're looking at less than $50 - quite a bit less actually - per unit for providing cpu and gpu. Yes, it's very doable.

AMD is *not* providing the CPU and the GPU, AMD is providing the *design* for the CPU and the GPU, they are going to be manufactured under license. In case of the Wii, they are providing the design of the GPU only, and no GPU design is worth 50USD in royalties only. 50USD is more than the ASP for AMD GPUs btw.

But in any case, thank you. What we have is you pulling out this 50USD/console number out of thin air. I'll pass.

 

[Hitman928]

AMD made it clear, they expect over $1 billion from embedded by the end of this year. Where else is it coming from?

Are you forgetting AMD is also in the Wii U? So that's all 3 consoles over the entire year.

From this link http://forums.highdefdigest.com/gam...y-2007-worldwide-console-sales-ps3-360-a.html we can see the 360 and PS3 sold over 13 million units in 2007 in America, Japan and Europe alone. You think adding the Wii to that and China would take it above 20 million because I do. So now you're looking at less than $50 - quite a bit less actually - per unit for providing cpu and gpu. Yes, it's very doable.

It might not quite make $1 billion but it'll be closer to $1 billion than the ridiculous claims of $200 million that some people are hoping for.

You should look at the year the machines launched, not 1-2 years later when they have the whole year to sell the machine with built up inventory and all the hype built up. Launch year numbers will be significantly less.

 

[Centauri]

Good job, I'm a little dwn but up with MU the latest PC monopolist.:biggrin:

Thanks. Though to be honest 10% up today still has me significantly below cost. But at least I doubled down at $2.40 after the run back up from $1.80 demonstrated that there is indeed a perceived 'minimum value' for the company.

 

[pablo87]

Thanks. Though to be honest 10% up today still has me significantly below cost. But at least I doubled down at $2.40 after the run back up from $1.80 demonstrated that there is indeed a perceived 'minimum value' for the company.

You are more patient than I and you'll probably be rewarded.

if it wasn't for the WSA, I'd say it has upside to $6-7. Positives in 2012 are numerous:

- GPU uptick per Lisa
- Console
- Kabini
- Temash (tablet)
- lowered cost structure - they're cutting 1/4 of their overhead.
- new mgmt in Lisa and Keller - not to say I have inside knowledge but he seems able to attract people.
- SR should at least have leaked benchmarks and with Keller at the helm, I would have some degree of confidence that AMD's Big Core is going to narrow the gap significantly in the next 3 years.

But with the WSA it's impossible to predict when the wheels will come off again between now and 2024. I'm probably too conservative tbh as its hard to imagine the stock not rising back up to at least $4 based on the above, even with the WSA cloud which by the way, becomes sunnier the better Big Core does since Big Core is fabbed at Global Foundries.

 

[SiliconWars]

On consoles.

Some 18.5 million Wii's sold in the first full year. PS3 was 3.5 million in the few weeks they had at the end of the year.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/library/historical_data/pdf/consolidated_sales_e1209.pdf
http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3_sale_e.html

Xbox numbers should be similar to PS3 for the few weeks or so at the end of the year, so we're looking at a combined total of 25 million next gen consoles sold with a full year of Nintendo and 1-2 months of Sony/MS like we will have in 2013.

So that takes care of the 20 million problem...but wait! Of course there will be more than that sold because people are still buying the original Wii and Xbox 360's in the meantime. So the actual number of consoles with AMD hardware being sold in them will be closer to 40 million in 2013. Granted the royalties will be less, but it all adds up.

And then there is China. If China opens up like is being reported then the market basically doubles overnight. If ever you think about buying AMD stock but are waiting, then look out for this announcement as your go-ahead.

So, some 40 million consoles will be sold this year with AMD hardware. Sadly they only have the graphics of the Wii U, however even at 10 bucks (which seems ridiculously low for the main part of the console), that'll be ~$200 million in royalties on the Wii U alone if the U can only equal Wii sales in it's first full year. It's already ahead at the same stage, just incase you were wondering.

So if 1/3rd of that total Xbox Next and PS4 are sold (say 7 million units), at $20 a console in royalties, that's another $150 million.

That is some $350 million taken care of at rock bottom prices, unless AMD is making less than $10 per Wii U and $20 per Xbox Next/PS4 which doesn't seem very likely to me.

Still a long way short of a $billion? Sure but what about the 13 million xbox 360's and 10 million Wii's that sold last year? That is probably worth some $200 million to AMD. People are still buying these even though the Wii U is released, and millions will continue to be sold.

So by my reckoning, at the very least AMD is set to make $500 million in console revenue in 2013, based on a measly $10 per Wii U and $20 per Next/PS4. And that's if China doesn't open up - if it does the market instantly doubles overnight.

 

[dbcoopernz]

I assume that the US government would block the sale of AMD to a Chinese company?

 

[SiliconWars]

I assume that the US government would block the sale of AMD to a Chinese company?

Intel and AMD sell millions of cpu's in China every year. I think it's Intel's biggest market by a long way actually.