AMD Q4 results

[pablo87]

Funny how Wall Street is seeing AMD. I'm now seeing articles that AMD is an "investment opportunity". AMD can use all the good news it can get.

Its because they do an upside /downside analysis of the business which if there is more upside than downside, it means the sp should rise and vice versa. Let's see:

1) Will Gloflo stick it to AMD in 2013/14 more than they did in 2012? No.

2) Is kabini a much better product than Brazos? Yes.

3) Is "Big Core" share at a low point? Probably.

4) Is GPU going to do better in 2013 esp. mobile? Yes, 8790 specs and Lisa says so.

5) Is there upside from other areas? Yes, console.

6) Is cost structure improving? Yes, significantly.

7) Is brain drain balanced by new hires in key areas? Seems so based on trust in Lisa and Keller, IMO.

8) Is cash balance a concern? Seems not esp. they have Campus sale in back pocket.

9) Do they have tablet upside with Temash? Seems like it.

10) Is Seamicro working out? Hard to say.

11) Are there skeletons in the closet? Of course there is, this is AMD.

12) Is their competitor stronger than ever and focused on AMD? Not really. ex. they just dropped out of mb biz.

 

[NTMBK]

It will certainly be an interesting year . I really think people are misjudgeing the power the haswell ulv 2core gt3 will produce. I also think people are over estamating what intel will want for these chips. It stands to be by far their highest volumn chip . The lower cost tablets I don't think the z2580 stands up to temash. So amd wins here . Intel wins the rest all the way up and below temash. Silvermont cores appear in products around thanksgiving so that will eat into temash and A15 territory. Its going to be an interesting here , But when its all over the story of 2013 will be haswell 2 core SOC/SOIX /GT3 .

Sadly, the very nature of ULV chips mean that it literally cannot be their highest volume chip. ULV chips are heavily binned versions of their standard voltage part, so they will have to make (and hence sell) several standard voltage parts for every ULV part that they sell.

This is why the new Atom is a far more interesting proposition to me- designed for low power, with every chip made capable of being in a tablet.

 

[krumme]

You mean two companies losing a lot of money should try to burn A LOT MORE money in order to attack a company that has many times their productive capacity?

Yes as i wrote "Take the investment now up front"...

Its a normal investment in my eye. An investment that hurt your competitor to give yourself a bigger advantage.

What is 100% certain is that oil keep moving the next decades, what is not 100% certain is that Intel high cost can be maintained. What Mubadala should do, is to create uncertainty about Intels ability to maintain the high fixed cost.

And as you know the uncertainty is enough to hurt tremendously.

Besides, TSMC have the productive capacity to give everyone and his broe 2/4 core jaguar.

 

[Homeles]

I think you need to read before replying to a post.

So do you.

He was talking about "AMD's underwhelming products".

Yes, that includes Bulldozer. Don't tell me that I need to read when you are seemingly incapable of doing so yourself.

Bulldozer was like a pile of saint's bones — a holy relic for worship, but fundamentally worthless. Bulldozer was met with cult-like blind acceptance, and asinine disregard for third party reviews. Bulldozer is the epitome of the statement he made.

It also includes their original Phenom. Another tragic disaster from AMD.

But no, you took his "underwhelming products" statement as an attack on one product. Last I checked, "products" is plural. And you'd be absurd to think the AMD cult was formed only with the conception of Vishera.

The AMD FX-8350 is an AMD product. I provided the links to prove that the AMD FX-8350 performs very well against the best Intel consumer level product.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_picking_(fallacy)

So you are an AMD basher and attacking all pro-AMD posters.

Because only AMD posters have to make up their facts. Reality has a well-known Intel bias. So how do you paint AMD in a good light? Well, you create your own universe.

If you don't believe me, then try to read your past posts.

I attack anyone and everyone if they're presenting inane, unscientific, and intellectually dishonest garbage, like the sewage you're spreading. AMD fans just tend to post the majority of it.

Anandtech.com is loaded with AMD attackers. Some of them belong to NVidia Focus Group. They are everywhere. One of the famous one is "Rollo". He has been banned from many sites.

It's also filled with putrid leakage from AMDZone. For every member that attacks AMD or their fans, there is another member that has a shrine in their bedroom dedicated to Jerry Sanders.

I was talking these things to IDC, the moderator. You prove my point.

And what point is that exactly?

You have zero authority to be making an assessment of my bias. I could link a handful of screenshots from users over at OCN claiming that I'm an AMD fanboy. I can link screenshots of people saying I'm an Intel fanboy. I can also link screenshots of people calling me a Nvidia fanboy.

The reality of the situation is that my agenda is completely agnostic towards any of those companies.

 

[amdisstaying]

Please use the formal channels for reporting posting abuses.

In the lower-left corner of every post is a "report post" icon that looks like a red triangle:

Thanks, IDC.

I will report any extremely abusive poster in AMD thread in the future.

I came across as an aggressive poster, but that was not my intention.

I try to learn something new more often and it makes life more interesting.

 

[krumme]

Its because they do an upside /downside analysis of the business which if there is more upside than downside, it means the sp should rise and vice versa. Let's see:

1) Will Gloflo stick it to AMD in 2013/14 more than they did in 2012? No.

2) Is kabini a much better product than Brazos? Yes.

3) Is "Big Core" share at a low point? Probably.

4) Is GPU going to do better in 2013 esp. mobile? Yes, 8790 specs and Lisa says so.

5) Is there upside from other areas? Yes, console.

6) Is cost structure improving? Yes, significantly.

7) Is brain drain balanced by new hires in key areas? Seems so based on trust in Lisa and Keller, IMO.

8) Is cash balance a concern? Seems not esp. they have Campus sale in back pocket.

9) Do they have tablet upside with Temash? Seems like it.

10) Is Seamicro working out? Hard to say.

11) Are there skeletons in the closet? Of course there is, this is AMD.

12) Is their competitor stronger than ever and focused on AMD? Not really. ex. they just dropped out of mb biz.

Intel have a strenght, and AMD a weakness, not mentioned in this thread but i think its important for the future outlook. Intel is having design to production under same roof so to speak.

With the new Atoms we will probably se the major effects of that, the agressive use of trigate into the design considerations could really make this processor sip power.

AMD have during the years build up productions knowledge - on the design side - that i think will start to fade and be weaker. It will take years until we see the full effect of that.

 

[Abwx]

You have zero authority to be making an assessment of my bias.

It is up to you to decide if you are credible or not , the same way
that you re negating this guy s credibility.

It's also filled with putrid leakage from AMDZone. For every member that attacks AMD or their fans, there is another member that has a shrine in their bedroom dedicated to Jerry Sanders.

Yet another deffamating sentences , but we are used...
Dont try to make things looking symmetrical , the threads
are a testimony that only intel fans unrelentlessly trash
AMD and alleged supporters in AMD related threads ,
starting with you.

I see nowhere that intel related threads are systematically
load crapped with posts like the ones that you and your
cohort are continously flooding.

 

[Homeles]

It is up to you to decide if you are credible or not , the same way
that you re negating this guy s credibility.

Yet another deffamating sentences , but we are used...
Dont try to make things looking symmetrical , the threads
are a testimony that only intel fans unrelentlessly trash
AMD and alleged supporters in AMD related threads ,
starting with you.

I see nowhere that intel related threads are systematically
load crapped with posts like the ones that you and your
cohort are continously flooding.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
Also, http://www.wikihow.com/Learn-English

 

[Idontcare]

The rhetoric and hyperbole seems to come from both sides. Whether or not it is equal in volume is irrelevant to me. I see the hyperbole and my eyes just glaze over and I skip the post and move on to another.

The forum cannot be stripped of those who would contribute noise over signal, we cannot apply a universal noise suppression filter without destroying what makes Anandtech forums different from other forums on the web...and our goal here is not to be yet-another-forum.

The responsibility for filtering content has to be done at the end-user side of the equation. Each of us must decide for ourselves whether or not we can come to these forums and enjoy ourselves here, for the signal despite the noise.

If one cannot manually move themselves past the noise, gloss over it and skim the thread until they find something worthy of their time (my preferred method) then the forum provides the option of adding members to an "Ignore List".

This puts censorship into the hands of the individual, rather than having censorship occur at the hands of the moderators. Who am I to judge what any one of you come here to read and engage? Do you really want to live in the shadow of whatever I find to be acceptable, or would you like to be treated like adults and be allowed to make the decision for yourself?

There are five options:

1. Ignore the noise in the forum the same as you would ignore the background chatter that is all around you in restaurants, pubs, buses, airplanes, workplace, etc, while carrying on a conversation with whomever you find worthy of your time.
2. Use your "ignore list", apply active censorship at the your end knowing you have control over how much or how little you decide to filter out. (put on your Bose noise-cancellation headphones)
3. Go to a different forum where the noise suppression system is more to your liking. We know we can't please all the people all the time and we aren't going to waste our time trying to do so (all mods are volunteers, even the forum directors and admin).
4. Make it your personal priority to combat the noise head-on, meet rhetoric with rhetoric, hyperbole with hyperbole...and risk becoming indistinguishable from that which you loathe, forcing your fellow forum colleagues to decide for themselves where you fall in this same list of options.
5. Attempt to dispel the rhetoric and hyperbole by means of injecting a well-reasoned argument (as in the debate kind, not the emotional kind) while leaving the personal attacks, insults, and rhetoric out of the rebuttal you are forming in your post.

Far too often we, the moderators, see people who think they are doing #5 when really they are doing #4. All we can do is try to convince folks to spend more time doing #1 or #2, and if all else fails then we politely ask them to do #3.

 

[mrmt]

What is 100% certain is that oil keep moving the next decades, what is not 100% certain is that Intel high cost can be maintained. What Mubadala should do, is to create uncertainty about Intels ability to maintain the high fixed cost.

While Intel is AMD arch-foe, GLF arch-foe isn't Intel but TSMC. TSMC can live manufacturing low margin chips and still make a descent profit, so can GLF. It is AMD who cannot manufacture low margin chips and get a descent profit. By attacking Intel, GLF would have to commit billions to develop a structure good enough to take on Intel R&D in two fronts, design and manufacturing, and wouldn't be able to recoup the money any time soon.

At the same time, if GLF can develop a good enough process they can get Nvidia, Qualcomm and others to manufacture chips there. All these companies are bigger than AMD, and would be automatically more important than AMD, and would generate demand for a new fab on the desert sands.

What alternative would involve less risk, less capital and less time, and would be more aligned with Mubalada's long term goals?

Besides, TSMC have the productive capacity to give everyone and his broe 2/4 core jaguar.

TSMC has, but won't be able to bring it to bear because AMD will have to move up Kabini, or it's sucessor, to GLF, and GLF hasn't.

The deal is that GLF is too small to have a significant impact on prices. They first would have to build up *a lot* of capacity, then they would have to shore up AMD finances without triggering a change of control, then build a R&D structure to match Intel's, and then they would have to hope that this strategy would pan out. That's a long shot, a very long shot, and a very hard shot.

 

[amdisstaying]

they(Intel) just dropped out of mb biz.

That is a very important statement.

Intel is doing the same thing what AMD is trying to do.

The difference is Intel is very quiet, and AMD's plans are analysed in minute details.

Intel is also preemptive, and AMD waits until its b*tt is on fire.

Mr. Dirk Meyer, Rick Bergman and Thomas Seifert created a big-mess at AMD from 2009 thru 2011.

These three executives are responsible for the WSA-2011 & WSA-2012. I'm assuming they got pushed out of the company. That is the best thing happened to AMD.

Let us see what Rory, Lisa and Devinder can do for AMD in 2013. These executives now know everything about AMD. AMD's fate is in their hands.

Don't forget AMD has a company. AMD can say that look at HP. AMD and HP are in the same boat.

 

[Idontcare]

Also, http://www.wikihow.com/Learn-English

That's not cool.

We are a globally-accessible forum and not everyone is going to be first-language English speaker.

And even if an individual is a first-language English speaker that still doesn't mean they are going to have perfect diction.

People put in an effort to come here and write their thoughts in English because that is the dominant language in these forums. They are already doing it for your benefit, to the best of their ability, rather than requiring you to translate their post in their native language (as they must do with yours).

They do not deserve to have their noses rubbed in language snobbery. They are already putting in far more effort than you or I must do when crafting our posts in a language that comes naturally and natively to us.

The least we could do is thank them for their effort, and put in a little effort on our part to meet them half-way in attempting to understand what it is they were most likely attempting to communicate to us with their particular word choice and context.

Is it really so hard to be tolerant and accommodating of those who do not speak or write fluent English? If it is an unacceptable burden then I kindly suggest you simply refrain from interacting with the individual, for your sake and theirs.

 

[Homeles]

That's not cool.

We are a globally-accessible forum and not everyone is going to be first-language English speaker.

And even if an individual is a first-language English speaker that still doesn't mean they are going to have perfect diction.

People put in an effort to come here and write their thoughts in English because that is the dominant language in these forums. They are already doing it for your benefit, to the best of their ability, rather than requiring you to translate their post in their native language (as they must do with yours).

They do not deserve to have their noses rubbed in language snobbery. They are already putting in far more effort than you or I must do when crafting our posts in a language that comes naturally and natively to us.

The least we could do is thank them for their effort, and put in a little effort on our part to meet them half-way in attempting to understand what it is they were most likely attempting to communicate to us with their particular word choice and context.

Is it really so hard to be tolerant and accommodating of those who do not speak or write fluent English? If it is an unacceptable burden then I kindly suggest you simply refrain from interacting with the individual, for your sake and theirs.

I'm not being a "language snob."

 

[Abwx]

If you cant attack the sentences points then attack the way it is written...

English fluent or not that s telling in matter of IQ.

 

[Abwx]

I'm not being a "language snob."

You are perceived as you are , not as you would like to be perceived ,
that s the rule on the web , accept it or leave it.

 

[Homeles]

If you cant attack the sentences points then attack the way it is written...

English fluent or not that s telling in matter of IQ.

Where the hell did I imply it was? Good grief do people around like to jump to wild conclusions.

And your post was a textbook case of confirmation bias. Go chew on that.

You are perceived as you are , not as you would like to be perceived ,
that s the rule on the web , accept it or leave it.

I don't care what people's perceptions are. Especially around here, where everyone is quick to take everything as a personal attack, rather than a chance to realize that they may actually be wrong or be flawed, and use that criticism as a chance for self-improvement.

 

[Abwx]

And your post was a textbook case of confirmation bias. Go chew on that.

That s your opinion , now let others speak as well rather than
unrelentlessly insisting that we must give attention to your sayings....

 

[Homeles]

That s your opinion , now let others speak as well rather than
unrelentlessly insisting that we must give attention to your sayings....

I'm not insisting anything. Am I controlling you? If you don't like giving me attention, then don't. Are you not an adult?

 

[Abwx]

There is two affirmations and two questions....and a question generaly
begs an answer...

 

[NTMBK]

I'm not being a "language snob."

Yes, you are.

 

[Olikan]

That's not cool.

We are a globally-accessible forum and not everyone is going to be first-language English speaker.

And even if an individual is a first-language English speaker that still doesn't mean they are going to have perfect diction.

People put in an effort to come here and write their thoughts in English because that is the dominant language in these forums. They are already doing it for your benefit, to the best of their ability, rather than requiring you to translate their post in their native language (as they must do with yours).

They do not deserve to have their noses rubbed in language snobbery. They are already putting in far more effort than you or I must do when crafting our posts in a language that comes naturally and natively to us.

The least we could do is thank them for their effort, and put in a little effort on our part to meet them half-way in attempting to understand what it is they were most likely attempting to communicate to us with their particular word choice and context.

Is it really so hard to be tolerant and accommodating of those who do not speak or write fluent English? If it is an unacceptable burden then I kindly suggest you simply refrain from interacting with the individual, for your sake and theirs.

apply cold water to that burn

 

[Homeles]

Yes, you are.

No, I'm not. I just said I'm not. Are you calling me a liar?

apply cold water to that burn

What burn? The pot of boiling water missed, buddy.

 

[krumme]

The deal is that GLF is too small to have a significant impact on prices. They first would have to build up *a lot* of capacity, then they would have to shore up AMD finances without triggering a change of control, then build a R&D structure to match Intel's, and then they would have to hope that this strategy would pan out. That's a long shot, a very long shot, and a very hard shot.

I will explain again - all this is a string, it needs not to be chopped into pieces:

1. Intel have a weak side on need for high margins demanded by high capex - perfectly laid out by Pablo

2. Mubadalas interest is GF, because its where the monopoly profit is, and their wet political and personal dreams about a fab in the desert and eternal fame

3. Intel is obviously funding 400mm and future expensive process development by having good margins, while TSMC have a far superior business model that makes depreciation much better to handle

4. The moment Mubadala uses AMD - with production on TSMC - because GF can not do it now - to dump temash/kabinit/kaveri whatever on the market, Intels margin is easily under attack.
Obviously only TSMC have the capacity for that. GF is still on the .ppt level.

5. It doesnt matter that TSMC benefits from it. The benefit TSMC gets is of minor importance to the serious hurt this will make on Intel margins.

6. I would say, with the cost Intel is taking on right now, they are prime for an attack. They are most vulnerable now.

7. There is a possible side benefit of this, and that is a strong AMD, that could benefit GF futher down the line, - as Pablo said. Its naturally in AMD interest to have two suppliers and therefore there will be support for GF.

8. Investing in fabs is for real men, with real wallets. If Mubadala is not up for this little fight, they can not stand the time in this business anyway.

 

[Ferzerp]

Can't we just take their opinions at face value and don't get personal by putting them into a drawer?

When the "opinions" are at odds with verifiable facts and reality, yes, they end up shuffled away in to the "crazies" drawer. That's the problem with people talking up AMD on the CPU side. It's so lopsided at the moment, that you know they are more interested in AMD the company doing well than the actual quality of the product.

At least on the GPU side, there is actual competition, and each company has benefits (AMD is at the moment winning in all things single GPU, and nvidia only makes sense in multi-gpu, but that can swap during the next cycle). On the CPU side though, one either must be a blind brand zealot, or involve oneself in some interesting mental gymnastics to have a favorable view of the state of AMD "performance" cpus. No one with a grasp of reality could suggest that the performance crown in CPUs could swap easily like it can in GPUs.

 

[krumme]

The strategy about attacking Intel perhaps sounds mad. But what can not continue is how things is progressing now:

1. Intel constantly gets feedback from production to design and the other way round, because its under the same roof. That gives them an constant advantage.

2. Intel is years in front of GF. There is no way Mubadala will ever get competitive with that pouring fx. 5B annualy into the company, because intel will pour even more into their proces development, making the compettitive edge even larger.

Saying TSMC is the main competitor is wrong. The cpu that is not produced by TSMC is either produced by GF or Intel. Its all the same.

If one day say AMD could come up with the sweetest little CPU and GF had the most wonderfull process for it, then they could target TSMC, but until that micracle happens, at least they can make sure one of their main competitors gets cash constrained.