- Mar 11, 2000
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my main issue with your arguments is that you assume people don’t care about any of the improvements that could be made with this transition and essentially dismiss them as things that could increase adoption of the Mac ecosystem. obviously we don’t know what these benefits could be, but it’s fairly easy to think of a few things that would be attractive to someone buying a computer.So they would not be moving to Apple because ARM, but merely upgrading from an older system - so not the case we're looking for.
And there's nothing wrong or rare about using a computer for 5 years. It's pretty normal.
Once again... people either haven't read my original post or don't understand it. Some, like @name99 went into full "you don't praise a Macbook, so you're an Apple hater" mode.
I precisely said that Apple market share will drop IMO, because moving Macs to ARM will repel more people than it will attract into the ecosystem (if any).
This was a pretty simple, behavioral observation (with some arguments) that I could make about a type of potato. But since it was about computers, some people went berserk, because it's just not possible for Apple to lose clients.
And I haven't even said this is would be a business mistake. They may still earn more in the end.
So they would not be moving to Apple because ARM, but merely upgrading from an older system - so not the case we're looking for.
And there's nothing wrong or rare about using a computer for 5 years. It's pretty normal.
Once again... people either haven't read my original post or don't understand it. Some, like @name99 went into full "you don't praise a Macbook, so you're an Apple hater" mode.
I precisely said that Apple market share will drop IMO, because moving Macs to ARM will repel more people than it will attract into the ecosystem (if any).
This was a pretty simple, behavioral observation (with some arguments) that I could make about a type of potato. But since it was about computers, some people went berserk, because it's just not possible for Apple to lose clients.
And I haven't even said this is would be a business mistake. They may still earn more in the end.
I precisely said that Apple market share will drop IMO, because moving Macs to ARM will repel more people than it will attract into the ecosystem (if any).
This was a pretty simple, behavioral observation (with some arguments) that I could make about a type of potato. But since it was about computers, some people went berserk, because it's just not possible for Apple to lose clients.
And I haven't even said this is would be a business mistake. They may still earn more in the end.
I don't disagree with your argument per-se. I expect there will be those who flee the Mac because they rely too heavily on x86 compatibility. I think that is probably a smaller percentage of Mac users than you imagine, and perhaps even a trivial number, because 1) there are also movements towards the ARM ISA in non-Apple segments (servers, Linux, WoA), and more importantly 2) many of the types of workflows one needs x86 compatibility for can be achieved in the cloud. I used to use bootcamp regularly, but I haven't booted into it for almost two years now because accessing a rented machine in the cloud (in my case Shadow) has proved to be far less hassle and far more powerful.
On the flip side, I think you may underestimate the number of consumers who would like to buy a Mac but can't justify the price. I seriously doubt Apple will decrease prices much, but their strategy with the Watch, iPad, and iPhone now revolve around offering lower cost, lower-featured models to get market saturation. It wouldn't be shocking to see a slightly cheaper Mac aiming for that same goal. Even at 899 / 799 for education I expect a lot of potential buyers might bite. Especially if the entry model is more performant than the current entry Macbook Air, which it probably will be. For better or worse, a Macbook also carries a lot of cultural cache, and plenty of parents might be more willing to spend 799 for their kids college laptop.
Why expect that the prices will be that high (say $800) in say two years, once the initial ARM Mac market is saturated?
Apple doesn't compete with $350 laptops today, because to get to that price point on an Intel chassis require compromises Apple isn't willing to make.
But compare a $1000 macbook with the cheapest iPad:
The MBA screen is slightly larger, but slightly lower quality with lower pixel density. Probably not much price difference there.
The battery has to be substantially larger for the MBA. And you need cooling.
Intel gets a large cut, of course.
DRAM is 8 rather than 4GiB, storage is 256 rather than 32GiB.
Some iPad stuff (most obviously the rear camera, but also the touch part of the touch screen) can be dropped.
Start with 2022's iPad cheap (in 2022 probably using an A14, maybe 6GiB RAM, min of 64 GiB storage?) Maybe use the same panel maybe a larger 13" panel. Add a keyboard (without the fanciness of being able to tear it off like a Magic Keyboard).
I'm sure you can get this to $500 *easily* with Apple's expected markup. Maybe even down to $400 if Apple really wants to go low, and is willing to accept a more boxy look, or less prestige materials than unibody aluminum.
Economically I don't see what the problem is, if our target is something like
- will compete with $350 laptops in 2023
- will be much the same as today's MBA in functionality (and quite a bit better in performance).
Remember this will be the MacBook SE. If you want better functionality buy a MacBook. If you want the best, buy a MacBook Pro. Like the iPad or iPhone lines...
So then the question is does Apple want to do this, given it's possible? And that's why I bring up this long history of Apple doing PRECISELY this across all its new product lines, once they get settled and start to saturate the high end market...
I am not bullish on this change doing much beyond growing margins, which is fine. That’s all the stockholders really care about.
The proof will be in 2021/2022 I suppose.
I'm sure you can get this to $500 *easily* with Apple's expected markup. Maybe even down to $400 if Apple really wants to go low, and is willing to accept a more boxy look, or less prestige materials than unibody aluminum.
After Apple creates a $150 iPhone for developing markets I will believe they will pursue the sub $500 space for laptops. That's a crazy low margin space and way, way out of character for Apple.
After Apple creates a $150 iPhone for developing markets I will believe they will pursue the sub $500 space for laptops. That's a crazy low margin space and way, way out of character for Apple.
What hardware does a laptop have that an iPad doesn't other than a keyboard and touchpad? They sell an iPad for $329 now, how much do you think a keyboard costs?
And how many people buying $350 laptops are going to sign up fro $20 per month bundles for services? IDK, it's just such a different demo. And heck yeah there is a demo for Apple customers.
What does that do to the value of the rest of their lineup? They are always showing keyboards with much higher level iPads.
The question is not if they could, but why would they? I am certain that Apple would like to sell iPads for more but the education market has stiff competition from Chromebooks.
Only Apple really knows - I think it has a lot to do with whether they are pursuing growth in terms of service revenue (appears uptake has been struggling given the new bundles) so focus on growing their user base or if they want to continue to make revenue from their hardware.
And how many people buying $350 laptops are going to sign up fro $20 per month bundles for services? IDK, it's just such a different demo. And heck yeah there is a demo for Apple customers.
Apple is transitioning into a service company. They want to sell subscriptions. In order to sell subscriptions, they need to have a bigger install base. This is why they’ve been pushing cheaper iPads and iPhones into the market.I don't think Apple will lower prices much (if at all) on Macs when they go Arm.
However, they could offer other things like higher performance and longer battery life, and even more premium features.
Maybe all Arm Macs will go with USB 4 with Thunderbolt 3 for example. Or at least the 2nd gen will. In the meantime they may "just" have TB3. Or maybe they'll introduce cellular Macs. They'll probably reintroduce fanless Macs.
US$800 seems reasonable. US$600 seems unlikely in the next 3 years, unless you're talking about an edu-specific Mac mini or something.Apple is transitioning into a service company. They want to sell subscriptions. In order to sell subscriptions, they need to have a bigger install base. This is why they’ve been pushing cheaper iPads and iPhones into the market.
Heck, you can get an $900 MacBook Air now.
Apple will certainly pursue the same strategy for Macs once they transition to ARM and don’t have to give Intel a huge cut. I fully expect to see $600-$800 Macs in the next 3 years that will substantially outperform any AMD or Intel laptop in the same bracket in speed and battery life.
Apple’s strategy is quite simple. Their SoC give their hardware a performance advantage at any price range. Their walled garden OSes give people a consistent experience. Now they will sell those people subscriptions to services like Music,TV, News, iCloud, and others.
Yep it is no longer about revenue or profits but instead about stock price. Wall Street gives a 2x to 3x marketup for similar revenue and similar profit when it comes to stock price if it comes from a routine subscription instead of discrete sales for Wall Street trusts subscription revenue more than individual purchases. This is because with individual purchase you may decide your current hardware is good enough, or you want the new thing with a new form factor instead of the old form factor and so on. Subscription revenue of X dollars predict higher future returns than discrete revenue of X dollars in the future, for subscriptions have a more reliable turnover year over year.Apple is transitioning into a service company. They want to sell subscriptions. In order to sell subscriptions, they need to have a bigger install base. This is why they’ve been pushing cheaper iPads and iPhones into the market.
This is precisely the sort of answer we get when people model Apple based on their theory of how "evil company works" rather than history and reality.
If Apple were obsessed with selling only high priced items, why sell the low-end iPad? Why sell the various cheaper iPhone models. Hell why sell MacBook Air and not just MacBook Pro?
If your argument is "but Chromebooks compete with iPad", well, yeah, and Chromebooks and $350 laptops also compete with MBA.
Finally are you being serious or are you trying to score snark points? WTF do $20 Apple bundles have to do with what we are discussing?
If people see value in those bundles they will buy them, otherwise they won't regardless of what Apple HW they buy! I own many many Apple devices -- and my one Apple subscription is 99c a month for the minimal iCloud storage above free. The rest of the services are not of value to me. That may change, but no-one's forcing you to buy them!
You can engage in snark or you can engage! If you insist that there's a specific Apple demo, then why do you insist that that same demo, the middle class outside the West, that buys iPhones, will not buy a Mac at a price that fits their budget?
There were some dodgy rumors recently about Apple developing a GPU for 2021. I'm not sure I buy an Apple dGPU next year, but I'm a lot more willing to buy the idea that they have a different GPU core design that would show up in APUs next year with the same A14 perf cores, ahead of the A15's launch.
First you said $500 laptop, now you are saying $350 laptop. Are you going to talk about $200 laptops next?
Apple's cheapest laptop is currently $999. There's plenty of room for them to offer cheaper configurations without going to $350, or even $500. You don't think they can't make healthy margins even at $500, when they're able to make money selling iPads for $329 that have more complex displays (higher resolution & touch) and have to engineer everything to fit in a smaller space than a laptop's form factor allows?
They seem to believe selling $399 iPhones and $329 iPads helps their ecosystem - whether they believe (or have evidence for) that's because those people buy services, move up to more expensive models for their next purchase, or expand into other products like Macs or Watches I don't know, but they wouldn't have introduced an SE2 if they didn't think the SE was worth it. Those lower priced products certainly haven't hurt their overall profitability.
The SE2 doesn't compete with the cheapest smartphones, but it does compete with the midrange. A less expensive laptop need not compete with the cheapest laptops in the market, but they might decide to compete with the midrange (which I'd say is probably $500 to $900, give or take)
I don’t see why not. In 3 years, Apple will have the A17 SoC. They can easily make a laptop with 13in, A15X SoC, 8gb ram and 128gb storage for $600. Basically an iPad with a keyboard. And this laptop will be substantially better than any $600 Wintel laptop.US$800 seems reasonable. US$600 seems unlikely in the next 3 years, unless you're talking about an edu-specific Mac mini or something.
I've stated REPEATEDLY that I see the new Mac purchasers to be pulled in by *substantially* lower prices, and have told you where I expect those purchasers to come from (newly emerging middle class, the people outside US+Europe who currently own iPhones but not macs).
Two problems:I rather see people not using laptop anymore at all. iPhones are already reasonably powerful. If they share the same OS as a macbook all you really need is a dockingstation to which you can attach a keyboard, screen etc. I'm sure apple will gladly sell you their special $500 docking station.
Two problems:
1. Apple can make a device significantly more powerful than the iPhone with the space that a laptop form factor gives them. So a Macbook will always be significantly more powerful.
2. If you’re going to carry a docking station with a keyboard and a large screen around, you might as well carry a laptop around.