Are you watching Greece implode?

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zephyrprime

Diamond Member
Feb 18, 2001
7,512
2
81
I suggest you read a little on the Eurozone itself. There would be no problem with Greece defaulting if it wasn't for the fact that it's part of the Euro.
/QUOTE]
I don't know why you're even dwelling on the point that you are. I never said that Greece isn't part of the EU. I never said that Greece defaulting on it's debt wouldn't be a problem for the EU. Greece defaulting on its debt would be a problem because it is part of the Euro.

What I did say was that the EU will default on its debt. That debt defaults inevitably happen. Not all the time. But about a twice a century or so for any given country. Greece has debt problems. Inevitably, Greece's debt problems will be transferred onto the EU central bank as a whole in one way or another through bail outs or debt swaps or whatever. Even though the EU central government doesn't have a lot of debt now, it will. This global debt crisis will cause them to go into major debt as the debts of the EU's individual countries is socialized onto the EU collectively. And then when things reach their breaking point the EU will default/devalue.
 

lsquare

Senior member
Jan 30, 2009
748
1
81
I have never heard a single person explain how we are much different because we can "control" our currency.

Well if Greece wants to make its exports more competitive, then it can't do so by devaluing its currency so that its goods are cheaper to import by other countries. The US can since the federal government can devalue the currency and boost exports. Exports is one avenue for achieving higher economic growth, it ain't the silver bullet that will solve current problems.

Our biggest funding issues going forward are our entitlement programs and our debt. Devaluing our currency to get our from under the debt problem sounds nice until you realize that our entitlements are pegged to inflation. So you inflate away 10 trillion in debt and you pick up an additional 100 trillion in entitlement obligations. Do YOU or anyone else here really believe we will remove that peg? Hell, didn't we send people on social security a check this year because inflation didn't go up (at least how we measure it)?

I never said we can devalue our way out of debt. There are pros and cons to devaluation. Devaluation of the US dollar will make imports more expensive.

Without going off-topic too much, those entitlement programs will be reformed one way or another in the future. There's no way those programs will remain as is because it'll bankrupt the country.

I can not possibly see our politicians pissing off a very large portion of the voting public in order to "pay" our debt (basically not pissing off our debt holders as bad). We will eventually default for the same reasons the Greeks are, our voting public will not tolerate significant changes to what they are entitled to and politicians, for the most part, simply want to get (re)elected. We can't raise taxes enough either, even if that was politically feasible.

Making matters even worse is all the game playing and legalized accounting fraud in both the public and private sectors. Eventually the math always wins.

I think the US is in much better shape and position to tackle its debt than Greece. The two countries are even comparable at all. Politicians will get together to tackle the debt problem when push comes to shove. Defaulting is not what any US government would contemplate of doing. It's inevitable that taxes will eventually go up and non-discretionary spending will be cut. Mark my words, this will happen and debt default will not.
 

lsquare

Senior member
Jan 30, 2009
748
1
81
I suggest you read a little on the Eurozone itself. There would be no problem with Greece defaulting if it wasn't for the fact that it's part of the Euro.
/QUOTE]
I don't know why you're even dwelling on the point that you are. I never said that Greece isn't part of the EU. I never said that Greece defaulting on it's debt wouldn't be a problem for the EU. Greece defaulting on its debt would be a problem because it is part of the Euro.

What I did say was that the EU will default on its debt. That debt defaults inevitably happen. Not all the time. But about a twice a century or so for any given country. Greece has debt problems. Inevitably, Greece's debt problems will be transferred onto the EU central bank as a whole in one way or another through bail outs or debt swaps or whatever. Even though the EU central government doesn't have a lot of debt now, it will. This global debt crisis will cause them to go into major debt as the debts of the EU's individual countries is socialized onto the EU collectively. And then when things reach their breaking point the EU will default/devalue.

Like I said, you need to read up on the Eurozone in order to better understand the situation. The first thing is that there is no such thing as a EU central government. The EU doesn't operate in the same manner as the US federal govenrment. The EU is not even a federalized state. Debt is not held by the "central government". Debt is held by the individual EU members. Even then, not all members of the EU are part of the Eurozone. Greece's problem is definitely not the UK's problem and they're not going to contribute a cent to help them weather this storm. That's what I was arguing about.

As for defaulting on their debts, you won't see the major European economies like the UK or Greece defaulting on its debt. Just because certain European countries defaulted on its debt in the past, doesn't mean that they will do so again in the future. If things were this easy, then there would no incentives for governments to repay their debt with interest.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,273
9,468
136
I think the US is in much better shape and position to tackle its debt than Greece. The two countries are even comparable at all. Politicians will get together to tackle the debt problem when push comes to shove. Defaulting is not what any US government would contemplate of doing. It's inevitable that taxes will eventually go up and non-discretionary spending will be cut. Mark my words, this will happen and debt default will not.

Mark my words. We will raise taxes, we will cut some spending, and it will not nearly be enough.
 

zephyrprime

Diamond Member
Feb 18, 2001
7,512
2
81
Like I said, you need to read up on the Eurozone in order to better understand the situation. The first thing is that there is no such thing as a EU central government. The EU doesn't operate in the same manner as the US federal govenrment. The EU is not even a federalized state. Debt is not held by the "central government". Debt is held by the individual EU members. Even then, not all members of the EU are part of the Eurozone. Greece's problem is definitely not the UK's problem and they're not going to contribute a cent to help them weather this storm. That's what I was arguing about.

As for defaulting on their debts, you won't see the major European economies like the UK or Greece defaulting on its debt. Just because certain European countries defaulted on its debt in the past, doesn't mean that they will do so again in the future. If things were this easy, then there would no incentives for governments to repay their debt with interest.
I already know the EU has only a weak central government and people don't even like to call it a government. But it is a government. And I know not all EU members are in the EU monetary bloc. Debt is not held by the EU central government but it will be. The EU central government will expand and become more powerful to deal with this situation. I'm not saying that they will gain all sorts of government power. But they will gain substantial power concerning money issues for the members of the EU monetary union.

Debt has to be defaulted on eventually in economies that use a fiduciary money system. It's a mathematical certainty.
 
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StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Greece passed its austerity measure. Stock market is not impressed now, bordering on panic, down 250 now was 300+ a few minutes ago.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
Sorry, but why are unions leading the protests in Greece? Yea it was the government that spent too much, borrowed too much, and the cuts will be hurting the workers...

But that is reality. What is the alternative? The government is too far in debt, they have to tax and cut spending. What do these union thugs want done differently? I would even bet they were the ones who pushed the government too far.
 

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
Yikes, the dow jones just dipped below 10k...

can't we dismantle our nuclear arsenal by firing them at greece?
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Sorry, but why are unions leading the protests in Greece? Yea it was the government that spent too much, borrowed too much, and the cuts will be hurting the workers...

But that is reality. What is the alternative? The government is too far in debt, they have to tax and cut spending. What do these union thugs want done differently? I would even bet they were the ones who pushed the government too far.
I actually don't know what they are protesting. The closest explanation I've found is some vague reference to how the corrupt government has been mishandling things for 30 years and so the people should not pay for its misdeeds. This pretends that they were not part of the corruption and knew about it, which of course they did. I honestly have no idea what these people are protesting against, in which world their protest makes logical sense.
 

zephyrprime

Diamond Member
Feb 18, 2001
7,512
2
81
I actually don't know what they are protesting. The closest explanation I've found is some vague reference to how the corrupt government has been mishandling things for 30 years and so the people should not pay for its misdeeds. This pretends that they were not part of the corruption and knew about it, which of course they did. I honestly have no idea what these people are protesting against, in which world their protest makes logical sense.
They're protesting government spending cuts and less social welfare money due to increased retirement age and etc.
 

GTaudiophile

Lifer
Oct 24, 2000
29,767
33
81
The social welfare policies of European governments have heretofore been far more comprehensive (and culturally engrained) by comparison to those in the USA.

This should be a wakeup call to every government, demonstrating the complexities and difficulties of weaning a people off of the government tit.

Promise them an inch, and they will take a mile.
Take an inch away, and they will burn you.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
They're protesting government spending cuts and less social welfare money due to increased retirement age and etc.
OK I know WHAT they are protesting but I'm not sure WHY they are protesting it. The math is very elementary, a typical child of about 7 years old could understand it. What exactly do they think the government can do if not this? If the package doesn't kick in and they default on debt then they'll really be austere.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Interesting. As some may know England is electing a new power today.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ele...l-doom-election-winner-warns-Mervyn-King.html

Whichever party wins the election will have to impose spending cuts of such severity that they will find themselves exiled from power for a generation, the governor of the Bank of England has reportedly claimed.

And why does he say that? Because of this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...g-from-our-childrens-future-to-buy-votes.html

according to the Treasury's forecasts, the United Kingdom will nearly double its indebtedness [by 2014-2015] from £776 billion (in 2009-10) to £1.4 trillion
 
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Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
126
Responsibilities pegged to inflation do not benefit but others do, like bonds sold, so if the dollar loses half its value yes you have to now pay out twice social security but the trillion you owe China is now worth half as much. Obviously any future debt will only be purchased at a premium, though, as they will build their purchases in with the anticipation you will devalue things.

Responsibilities pegged to inflation not only don't benefit they actually HURT. That was my point. Why in the world would you inflate away 1 trillion in Chinese held bonds only to increase your responsibilities to the American people by 10 times what you saved?

Keep in mind, wages (and therefor taxes) are NOT pegged to inflation. Obviously wages will rise if it is done in a controlled fashion but I very seriously doubt they will rise high enough to make it even. Hell, current wages aren't keeping up with inflation if I recall correctly.

The math just doesn't work, inflation will hurt us far worse than it will help due directly to the way our entitlements are structured.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
126
Greece passed its austerity measure. Stock market is not impressed now, bordering on panic, down 250 now was 300+ a few minutes ago.

Damn, was almost 1,000 points down at one point! That was one hellofa friggen drop and bounce in a very short period of time.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
OK I know WHAT they are protesting but I'm not sure WHY they are protesting it. The math is very elementary, a typical child of about 7 years old could understand it. What exactly do they think the government can do if not this? If the package doesn't kick in and they default on debt then they'll really be austere.
If Greece defaults then the Greek citizens will fall back on their last line of defense, holding their breath until they get their way or collectively turn blue.

I just think it's great that my government retirement check will be delayed until at least age 67 yet my tax money is going to Greece to help them retire at 63 - and THEY are the ones rioting?
 

piasabird

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
17,168
60
91
Greece is a socialist nanny state and it is failing.
Uk and France are not far behind.
We are creating a more socialistic and increasing entitlements.

If we are creating the same problems, then why should we expect different results?
 

lsquare

Senior member
Jan 30, 2009
748
1
81
I already know the EU has only a weak central government and people don't even like to call it a government. But it is a government. And I know not all EU members are in the EU monetary bloc. Debt is not held by the EU central government but it will be. The EU central government will expand and become more powerful to deal with this situation. I'm not saying that they will gain all sorts of government power. But they will gain substantial power concerning money issues for the members of the EU monetary union.

This is where you are wrong time after time. Reiterating what you have said will not make it true. The way how the EU works is not the same as how a federalized state work. Sure, you can call it a government, but it's not in the same sense as a federalized state. I'm not here to debate the hypothetical with you. I'm here to say how things currently work and that is debt itself is not held by the EU.

Debt has to be defaulted on eventually in economies that use a fiduciary money system. It's a mathematical certainty.

Prove it.
 

lsquare

Senior member
Jan 30, 2009
748
1
81
If Greece defaults then the Greek citizens will fall back on their last line of defense, holding their breath until they get their way or collectively turn blue.

I just think it's great that my government retirement check will be delayed until at least age 67 yet my tax money is going to Greece to help them retire at 63 - and THEY are the ones rioting?

You're not directly supporting Greece through your tax dollars.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
You're not directly supporting Greece through your tax dollars.
Isn't he directly supporting, via tax dollars, anything the US government does? Without his tax dollars they do not exist; they are under his employ paid for by his (and others') tax dollars, so if they have a part of a bailout package to Greece then his tax dollars do to a degree support it.
 

lsquare

Senior member
Jan 30, 2009
748
1
81
Isn't he directly supporting, via tax dollars, anything the US government does? Without his tax dollars they do not exist; they are under his employ paid for by his (and others') tax dollars, so if they have a part of a bailout package to Greece then his tax dollars do to a degree support it.

The US government is not bailing out Greece directly. Like I said before, his tax dollars are indirectly supporting Greece through the IMF. The US pays its portion of the IMF.
 

Mursilis

Diamond Member
Mar 11, 2001
7,756
11
81
OK I know WHAT they are protesting but I'm not sure WHY they are protesting it. The math is very elementary, a typical child of about 7 years old could understand it. What exactly do they think the government can do if not this? If the package doesn't kick in and they default on debt then they'll really be austere.

You overestimate the typical voter.
 
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