Are you watching Greece implode?

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nonlnear

Platinum Member
Jan 31, 2008
2,497
0
76
Lol, sure. Do you? In an economy with a fiat currency, do you think expenditure or taxation would have to come first?

I'm not sure you intended this question to be as profound as it is. Taxation is necessary in order to create demand for the fiat currency by definition, but expenditure is necessary to ward off revolution in any jurisdiction whose political movers and shakers are self-interested - i.e. human. It's not a question that can be answered in an a priori setting as a fiat currency is never introduced with a political/historical blank slate. (Currency regimes have a habit of only changing under extreme duress, making it a stretch at best to pretend to derive "scientific" absolutes about "what comes first".) I assume you meant this question to be a purely economic one, but it's a question that can never be extricated form more fundamental political issues.
 

BigDH01

Golden Member
Jul 8, 2005
1,631
88
91
I'm not sure you intended this question to be as profound as it is. Taxation is necessary in order to create demand for the fiat currency by definition, but expenditure is necessary to ward off revolution in any jurisdiction whose political movers and shakers are self-interested - i.e. human. It's not a question that can be answered in an a priori setting as a fiat currency is never introduced with a political/historical blank slate. (Currency regimes have a habit of only changing under extreme duress, making it a stretch at best to pretend to derive "scientific" absolutes about "what comes first".) I assume you meant this question to be a purely economic one, but it's a question that can never be extricated form more fundamental political issues.

Although the thought experiment itself should enlighten the process by revealing that the government, by necessity, has to inject currency into the economy if it is to collect it. If the government is to collect, it must first credit. In understanding this, it becomes apparent that sovereign governments who control their own currency do not behave like common households.

And there have been cases, obviously, of "peso-ification." Whether that means an end to convertibility or forced exchange, the government, practically speaking, prints and distributes currency before the newly denominated bill is taxed (even if the previous and latter currencies share the same name). It is obviously more convenient for the new fiat regime to reuse notes already in circulation, but this does not mean that taxation came before distribution.
 

nonlnear

Platinum Member
Jan 31, 2008
2,497
0
76
Although the thought experiment itself should enlighten the process by revealing that the government, by necessity, has to inject currency into the economy if it is to collect it. If the government is to collect, it must first credit. In understanding this, it becomes apparent that sovereign governments who control their own currency do not behave like common households.
Yes yes of course debt based currency requires debt to be created. I was reading your choice of the word expenditure to mean fiscal expenditure, and not just the monetary action of creating (synthetic) debt.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
126
Bonds serve other purposes, such as setting short term interested rates. In a sovereign national with fiat currency, you can't possibly believe that budgets function identically to what you do at home.

Of course it doesn't but you can't possibly believe that since you can liquidate a bond you hold in a secondary market that somehow means the original borrower can repurchase all of their bonds with new money and have no inflationary impact.

It is really simple, you would then have BOTH the borrowed money AND the newly printed money (which would be greater than the total amount borrowed) in the system. In fact, their currently isn't enough total outstanding cash in the system to even come close to paying it off. You would have to more than double the actual cash in the system to do so and that is by definition inflationary (insanely so, like Zimbabwe inflationary).
 

BigDH01

Golden Member
Jul 8, 2005
1,631
88
91
Of course it doesn't but you can't possibly believe that since you can liquidate a bond you hold in a secondary market that somehow means the original borrower can repurchase all of their bonds with new money and have no inflationary impact.

The bonds are as good as dollars because the government can ALWAYS make good on the bonds. Because there is basically baseline risk associated with the bonds, they are basically as good as cash and the market can treat them as such. At some point, all bonds can be traded back to the government for cash, cash they received through the issuance of other bonds or cash they create. Issuing new bonds to pay for old would set future inflation expectations as the government is guaranteeing new money that it will inject through interest, but the government could just as easily decide to pay current bond holders with freshly minted currency.

It is really simple, you would then have BOTH the borrowed money AND the newly printed money (which would be greater than the total amount borrowed) in the system. In fact, their currently isn't enough total outstanding cash in the system to even come close to paying it off. You would have to more than double the actual cash in the system to do so and that is by definition inflationary (insanely so, like Zimbabwe inflationary).

Bonds represent cash as well as they can always be traded to the government at some point in the future for cash. It's the fact that the government can always make good on this "debt" that makes treasuries as good as cash. Thus, the market can look at outstanding treasuries and come up with inflation expectations as those bonds represent guaranteed cash in the system. Inflation is still low.

I'm putting "debt" in quotes because the term makes people think that government debt is similar to the debt that you and I experience. It is a different monster under a fiat regime where the debtor basically controls the currency in which the "debt" has been denominated.
 

Darwin333

Lifer
Dec 11, 2006
19,946
2,329
126
The bonds are as good as dollars because the government can ALWAYS make good on the bonds. Because there is basically baseline risk associated with the bonds, they are basically as good as cash and the market can treat them as such. At some point, all bonds can be traded back to the government for cash, cash they received through the issuance of other bonds or cash they create. Issuing new bonds to pay for old would set future inflation expectations as the government is guaranteeing new money that it will inject through interest, but the government could just as easily decide to pay current bond holders with freshly minted currency.



Bonds represent cash as well as they can always be traded to the government at some point in the future for cash. It's the fact that the government can always make good on this "debt" that makes treasuries as good as cash. Thus, the market can look at outstanding treasuries and come up with inflation expectations as those bonds represent guaranteed cash in the system. Inflation is still low.

I'm putting "debt" in quotes because the term makes people think that government debt is similar to the debt that you and I experience. It is a different monster under a fiat regime where the debtor basically controls the currency in which the "debt" has been denominated.

I am not going to spend a whole lot of time arguing as to why printing up 12 trillion dollars in freshly minted currency in order to pay off all of our bonds would cause insane inflation.

However, if its as easy as you say then why can't the .gov make the entire world rich? If every country that has a fiat currency did what you suggest then we could all loan each other money, print up some new money, pay each other off and we would all have a fuckton of new money.

Bonds are not necessarily guaranteed new cash in the system at some future date. The cash was already infused into the system when we borrowed the money and spent it. We must then remove that amount of money, plus interest, to pay it back at some point which transfers the cash back to the original holder. In real simple terms, we are borrowing someone elses saved productivity and guaranteeing to pay them back with our future productivity. If there is no value or productivity behind a dollar then it is quite literally worthless.

Don't get me wrong, you are correct on some points but your conclusion is way off. If you are correct then we wouldn't be spending a ton of money on interest payments every year.
 

BigDH01

Golden Member
Jul 8, 2005
1,631
88
91
I am not going to spend a whole lot of time arguing as to why printing up 12 trillion dollars in freshly minted currency in order to pay off all of our bonds would cause insane inflation.

Because once you accept that bonds are basically as good as cash you'll realize why your arguments make no sense.

However, if its as easy as you say then why can't the .gov make the entire world rich? If every country that has a fiat currency did what you suggest then we could all loan each other money, print up some new money, pay each other off and we would all have a fuckton of new money.

I never said the gov't can't cause inflation, I'm saying that deficits don't concern me when capacity utilization is low and inflation is low.

Bonds are not necessarily guaranteed new cash in the system at some future date.

Yes, they are. The government can always pay back the bonds in cash as the government is never cash constrained (they do, after all, create it). I'm including the Fed as part of the gov't because realistically, they are.

The cash was already infused into the system when we borrowed the money and spent it.

The US gov't doesn't borrow money. Imagine this, if you created the currency used in your neighborhood, and had the power to tax your neighbors, why would you need to borrow your IOU from your neighbor to give an IOU to your other neighbor?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J0j5VwnD7I&feature=related

We must then remove that amount of money, plus interest, to pay it back at some point which transfers the cash back to the original holder. In real simple terms, we are borrowing someone elses saved productivity and guaranteeing to pay them back with our future productivity. If there is no value or productivity behind a dollar then it is quite literally worthless.

The government doesn't need to remove money to pay it back to the original holder. There is nothing stopping the government from crediting the holder's account with money it just created. This is why government bonds are nearly risk free, the government CAN ALWAYS pay you back. The reason this doesn't necessarily effect inflation is because the holder knows this as well. The market knows that the treasuries that exist are as good as cash. If the government dropped billions of dollars from a helicopter tomorrow, cash would be just as worthless as most treasuries.

Don't get me wrong, you are correct on some points but your conclusion is way off. If you are correct then we wouldn't be spending a ton of money on interest payments every year.

There is a reason. The interest paid on treasuries helps to set interest rates throughout the entire market precisely because treasuries have a baseline risk (they will always be convertible into cash at some point). Other interest rates can then be set upon the interest rates of treasuries plus some risk premium. This is how the government tries to manipulate interest rates.

We need to be clear on this. There is no inherent reason the government has to borrow money to spend it. If the government spends enough money that inflation becomes an issue, it can tax excess from the market.
 

juiio

Golden Member
Feb 28, 2000
1,433
4
81
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuJZdWTiaJM

Video of rioting this morning.

Youtube description said:
Hundreds of protesters clashed with riot police across central Athens on Wednesday, smashing cars and hurling gasoline bombs during a nationwide labour protest against the government's latest austerity measures. The former Minister for Development Kostis Hatzidakis was attacked by protesters outside a luxury hotel. He was escorted, bleeding from the scene as his attackers yelled "thieves" at him.
 

Najee

Junior Member
Jan 10, 2015
1
0
0
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