Bizarre thought about the X-box...

[Woodchuck101]

One of the biggest selling points for the PS2 is backwards compatability with the PSX.

What's to stop microsoft, in 3 years time simply releasing an X-Box2 with the latest greatest x86 CPU, a new chipset from n-vidia incorporating the NV-100 or whatever they're up to by then, and shedloads of ram? This would, due to the nature of x86 gadgetry be backwards compatible, but in the same league as the PS3...

Anyone wanna put a number on the probability of that happening?

 

[Zaphs]

3

 

[Novgrod]

They won't do that because they're losing money hand over fist on every xbox they sell. The longer they stretch out product cycles, the cheaper the boxes are to make, and the quicker they get their money back. The figures I heard are this: they're losing $100 per x-box sold, and if it's successful, they'll make it back (through games o'course) in four or so years.

 

[KeithP]

I agree this would be a good strategy. Its probably even likely. However, I think the time frame will be longer, say 4-5 years. As Novgrod mentioned, MS is loosing a lot of money on X-Box hardware sales. They need the number sold to reach critical mass so they can have enough profits from software sales to make this business profitable for them.

Of course, technology and competition can change things in unexpected ways so who knows?

-KeithP

 

[CQuinn]

3 years? I don't think it will take that long...

MS has already put out plans for convergence devices based on or built with the XBox design inside.
Devices like these are typically planned on yearly cycles, even if new products don't come out every
year exactly, the idea of of the XBox+ is already out there.

Unlike other consoles, the Xbox is not based on the hardware per se, but on DirectX.
By encouraging game developers to write to that interface instead of to the hardware, they
"automatically" get a platform that is forward compatible with any newer designs or newer
revs of DirectX.

I say "automatically" because it will be the responsibility of MS to make sure newer versions
of DirectX stay fully backward compatible with the version built into the Xbox. But that
should be an easier task than trying to make sure every game is compatible.

The current Xbox will continue thru the standard console lifecycle (from 2-4 years), and as Novgrod says,
eventually they might even turn a profit on selling the box alone. But in the interim you might expect to
see TV set top boxes, alternate entertainment platforms, and or PC games put out as Xbox referenced
titles.

 

[Aosh]

I say an upgraded, backwards compatible XBox is very possible down the line...but if they want to keep the majority of their customers happy, this will be a one-shot thing (i.e. their next generation console as opposed to yearly upgrades). If MS decides to do yearly upgrades or the like, that would undermine one of the strengths of consoles, which is lay down your $ once on hardware and have it last ~4-5 years. Granted that the upgrade won't be obligatory, if I own an XBox I would still be upset knowing that I would be left somewhat behind if I didn't. And it's also worth noting that in the console world, upgrades rarely if ever succeeded historically.

 

[NakaNaka]

Xbox2 will definitly launch in 2005 no doubt (4 years).

Which is perfect for MSFT. They make back the money they lost from the hardware from the Xbox, they gain market share + they gain experience (the last probably being the most important). It will probably be backwards compatible but by that time everyone will want to buy Xbox2 games because the damn thing will run on a Geforce5!! ...

 

[Mingon]

I think youll see certain parts of the x-box being upgraded, similar to how the ps1 had an increase in processor speed. I would guess that the nvdia chip could get die-shrunk (as it was planned to be a .13 micron chip ) the intel chip could become one of the newer ulv parts. whether this has any impact on performance who knows, but you will see various model introduced as with all consoles.

 

[Adul]

heh more like a geforce 7 or later.

 

[bigshooter]

Wasn't there a rumor about an xbox that was supposed to be more of a digital media device too? It was supposed to have tv recording capabilities and be more geared towards watching movies and music than the current one. I guess that would probably mean better software, and bigger hard drive, but who knows. I wish I could remember where I read that.

 

[ndee]

42