Originally posted by: AnImuS
Originally posted by: Hayabusarider
If Iran is developing nukes, then I agree they are violating the NPT. However, as I said earlier, they have the option of bowing out. It may be that they decide that to be an untenable position, but they do have that option.
Do you care or not if they leave and develop nukes?
For purposes of this discussion, it does not matter. I have purposefully not stated a position, because this thread was not created to define or express my feelings. It is about exploring potential options on both sides, particularly in the framework of action against Iran. After all, Bush controls the troops, and if he says go, they go. The rhetoric now is similar to the pre-invasion speeches of just several months ago. I wanted to explore what options and actions might take, and how Bush would respond based on past behavior. We could take it further of course, but things become even more uncertain as you try to account for actions in response to actions in response to actions and so on.
Now, that did not answer your question, but did frame the context of this thread.
Do I care? Yes.
I do not want nukes in Iran, particularly in the present climate. I also have to balance that desire with morality. While many seem to feel that the survival of the American Way (whatever that is) is so important, that we have carte blanche to attack other countries without legal justification, or as bad, to create a "law" in order to provide some credibility for what was wrong before. Attacking a sovereign country that has a legal right to do something is immoral. Oh how some hate that word. It constrains our behavior, more than law, because to subvert the things you stand for into something else makes you a scoundrel. So we ought to destroy the thing of value in our society in order to save it? It becomes meaningless, and frankly this is how the Nazis came to power. If you think that sort of thing cannot happen because Americans are so superior to those EuroTrash people, you have another thing coming. So many I know are gone now, killed to preserve "America", or at least thought they did. I would not have their good intent undone by some greasy weasel wrapped up in a flag.
Things to remember about Iran. It is not a democracy in the sense we have it, but it is a form of society that they chose. A friendly society? No, not to us, but you ought to know that before the infamous "Axis of Evil" speech, there were factions in Iran, even among the clerics that were trying to moderate the society. They extended a hand not of friendship, but of civility and good will. At least they were trying to make an attempt to normalize relations with the West and let us know their intent. They were reformers in their own country and were gathering strength. Well, Bush slapped that hand away and hard. This caused a withdrawal by those parties. Why would it not? I do not like Bush. Period. Now if some foreign power with the potential means announced it's hostility to our system of government and intent to support it overthrow, I would be mightily pissed. Bush is an ass, but he is my ass. Ripping up the Constitution to get rid of him is something I would hardly consider. That is what Bush did to them. So, goodwill or at least serious potential for it gets beat down. Now Bush invades Iraq. Why? Because he could. Whatever his reason, he decided he could and did. Iraq did not attack us. It was not even a credible threat, but the reason for attacking was that someday it
might be one. We are now attacking because of speculation. So..... Iran is now fearful of the US more than ever. The program that languished for a while with varying levels of support now seemed like a good idea. Why?
Bush considers the Iranian government, and by extension, the Iranians to be evil. Evil is a threat. He has precedent for attacking another country so labeled. Since there was less provocation for a war in concrete terms in Iraq than in any major war in a long time, the Iranians probably simply do not believe in the veracity or stability of Bush. If they are going to be attacked, maybe they can acquire nukes before we strike. The assumption on their part has to be that we will. So, the Iranian government is in my estimation trying to acquire nuclear weapons on what it sees as a defense against a belligerent power. Note- I am as sure as can be that this is not the only means they will use. In addition to building their own bomb, you can bet the farm that they would be trying to get black market USSR bombs from Georgia, the Ukraine and such.
So the solution? Bush shuts up. That may be the hardest thing to accomplish of all. If the man stood down and tried to reestablish contact with powers who might be willing to be less hostile, and wait for the inevitable social changes, we would be far better off. That does mean that Iran will probably have nukes, and I do not like it, but the alternative it to pull a Hitler and invade them on some concocted reason involving much flag waving. Remember, Iran has the
right to have nuclear weapons if they withdraw from the treaty, which they also have the right to so.
We need to quietly (emphasis on quietly) be active in supporting moderates in Iran, without plotting overthrow, or making it harder for them to justify their position.
Well, you asked.