Originally posted by: HJD1
Hay,
The thesis you posted above encapsulates what ought to be evident to the administration... I don't hear that comming from them..
I've a question Re:
Bush considers the Iranian government, and by extension, the Iranians to be evil. Evil is a threat. He has precedent for attacking another country so labeled. Since there was less provocation for a war in concrete terms in Iraq than in any major war in a long time, the Iranians probably simply do not believe in the veracity or stability of Bush. If they are going to be attacked, maybe they can acquire nukes before we strike. The assumption on their part has to be that we will. So, the Iranian government is in my estimation trying to acquire nuclear weapons on what it sees as a defense against a belligerent power. Note- I am as sure as can be that this is not the only means they will use. In addition to building their own bomb, you can bet the farm that they would be trying to get black market USSR bombs from Georgia, the Ukraine and such.
Why would Iran openly state they were going to go nuke? It provokes. I would only do this If I wished to force a bluff. To see what the US would do. I would only do this if I already had the means to defend against all practical options. What other reasons make sense to you?
edit.. after re re reading this I think I see another point.. maybe it is to secure alliance among Islamic states?
Well, so far they havent admitted to it, and all of this supposes they are working to get nukes, or intend to shortly.
This can bite the Iranians in a few ways.
Let's assume they do not announce it.
They might get away with it as long as no evidence for the program is found AND Bush does not claim to have proof. A program of this magnitude would leave some trail, and if by some miracle does not, then Bush has shown, shall we say, a propensity to exaggerate. If Bush does so, IMO, it is a prelude to the Iraqi scenario. Bush can use the NPT as his justification to attack.
Now let's go the other way.
Iran looks at the Iraq lesson and determines that no matter what it does, the chance of attack is high. Remember it is perception that matters more than reality, as should be painfully obvious from recent history. Now Iran could announce that it intends to produce weapons, but it does not need to state that as a reason to leave. From the perspective of the Iranians, it might be to their advantage to leave the treaty, claiming that it refuses to be bullied by the international community and leave it at that. Now Bush is in a more awkward situation. His legal justification is gone. Iran is not safe of course, but there is no legitimate reason under international law for the US to attack. Bush does so at his peril. Bush can always, and probably will, fall back on terrorism, liberation, etc. to drum up public support, and will probably work, but it might not. Certainly any "proof" offered will be scrutinized. I do believe that Iran has more support than Saddam did. Saddam was tolerated, but no one really liked him. Conversely, Iran is seen as being representitive of the people, at least much more so than Iraq.
Bush could attack, but the cost politically may be more than he is willing to bear. Not only that, but US troops are spread thin. Occupying Iraq, and invading Iran would be incredibly difficult. Another disincentive.