It crashed at about $32 last time, but the uptake prior to the crash was much more severe, the block reward was twice the size it is now, and, most importantly, the crash was precipitated by the mtgox hack and sale of "fake" bitcoins bringing the value down to $.01
I don't think anyone can say for sure if the value would have crashed when it did and as much as it did if the hack never occurred.
I have no strong opinion either way. I think it's about 50/50 chance likely that there will be another significant crash in the near future. But if it does happen, I think value will reach $60+ before it happens. No special evidence or algorithm or anything, just a feeling I have that the current peak could be significantly higher. I also think that the crash will be halted long before reaching single digit value again. I think a lot of people would jump at the opportunity to buy in at $20 or $15, enough that the crash won't have enough momentum to carry the value down lower, again this is just my personal feeling.
Also, I am feeling a bit of a sting from selling some coins at $25. I don't want to sell another dozen coins and see the value double a week later, not again. So I am just going to hold and wait for now.