Electoral vote prediction thread.

[ultimatebob]

Obama/Biden: 295
McCain/Palin: 243

I fear that the Bradley Effect will rear it's ugly head in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida. Those folks who are expecting an Obama blowout are underestimating how many racists and bigots are still out there.... although I'd love a pleasant election day surprise!

 

[ra990]

$1 Bob.

 

[Starbuck1975]

Obama 288
McCain 250

I assumed Obama would take all of the Kerry states, and McCain would lose Iowa, Colorado and Ohio. I think McCain will hold Florida, Missouri and North Carolina. Virginia will probably go Obama.

Only data point of note is that McCain is closing slightly on Obama in Pennsylvania...not enough to change the outcome, but I think Murtha might be unemployed come next week.

Will be interesting to see how the vote of discontent will shift...many of these predictions assume a shift of undecided voters to Obama...with 10% of the electorate still undecided as of last week, some of those may go to 3rd party candidates.

An electoral victory for Obama is inevitable...will be interesting to see the popular vote results and demographic shifts.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

364 - 174. Obama.

 

[Compddd]

So when McCain is crushed by Obama and it makes dmcowen674 look like an idiot, will he buy us all hamburgers for being off the mark?

 

[Excelsior]

Originally posted by: OrByte
O: 311
J: 227

This is my conservative estimate.

 

[lucasorion]

Originally posted by: ultimatebob
Obama/Biden: 295
McCain/Palin: 243

I fear that the Bradley Effect will rear it's ugly head in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida. Those folks who are expecting an Obama blowout are underestimating how many racists and bigots are still out there.... although I'd love a pleasant election day surprise!

I agree, and though I am an Obama supporter, I think if I was a McCain supporter I would be seriously bothered by the fact that I would have to rely on the "Bradley Effect" being real for my guy to win.

 

[mshan]

IMO, the Bradley Effect is already been baked into the cake as Hillary Clinton burned the issue out during the Democratic Primaries.

I think McLame's chances in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida are inversely correlated with Palin's negatives (those voters need something very positive from or about her to ignite a last burst of enthusiasm if they are going to wait in long lines all day just to vote for McLame):

Spin: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...008/10/31/1622051.aspx

Reality: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/big-empty.html

 

[miketheidiot]

update4d

 

[miketheidiot]

btw no more estimates will be accepted after midnight sunday night

 

[ModerateRepZero]

my instinctive thought?

Obama wins popular vote maybe by 2-5% points over McCain, and gets enough electoral votes to win the presidency.

I'm not convinced that McCain can make up ground in the last few days, nor that Obama is going to get a decisive victory (60%+ of the vote)

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: ModerateRepZero
my instinctive thought?

Obama wins popular vote maybe by 2-5% points over McCain, and gets enough electoral votes to win the presidency.

I'm not convinced that McCain can make up ground in the last few days, nor that Obama is going to get a decisive victory (60%+ of the vote)

Whoa there. That's not decisive, that's a monster landslide. 60%+ of the popular has only happened 3 times before in history. FDR in 1936 (60%), LBJ in 1964 (61%) and Nixon in 1972 (60%).

 

[jpeyton]

3 people predict a McCain win so far.

 

[jpeyton]

Pundit Predictions (in case you were curious):

Mark Halperin
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 261 Democrats 174 Republicans

Matthew Dowd
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 250 Democrats 185 Republicans

George Will
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 378 McCain 160
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans

Donna Brazile
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 343
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 39 Republicans
House Seats: 262 Democrats 173 Republicans

George Stephanopoulos
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats (59 if there's a run-off in Georgia) Republicans 40
House Seats: Democrats 264 Republicans 171

Chris Matthews
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 56 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 264 Democrats 171 Republicans

Nate Silver
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 347 McCain 191
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 258 Democrats 177 Republicans

Chris Cillizza
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: 312 McCain 226
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 266 Democrats 169 Republicans

Arianna Huffington
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 318 McCain 220
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans

Fred Barnes
Winner: McCain
Electoral College: Obama 252 McCain 286
Senate Seats: 55 Democrats 43 Republicans
House Seats: 255 Democrats 180 Republicans

Eleanor Clift
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 265 Democrats 170 Republicans

Markos Moulitas
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 390 McCain 148
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 268 Democrats 167 Republicans

Ed Rollins
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 249 Democrats 186 Republicans

Paul Begala
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 325 McCain 213
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans

James Carville
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 330 McCain 208
Senate Seats: 60 Democrats 38 Republicans

I highlighted the lone maverick

It's very telling that there are no middle-ground players. We either see a 320+ EV, decisive victory for Obama, or one lone-wolf betting on a 280 EV squeaker for McCain.

 

[shira]

Obama 353, McCain 185

 

[miketheidiot]

betting is closed, will bump in 36 hours

 

[CycloWizard]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
I highlighted the lone maverick

It's very telling that there are no middle-ground players. We either see a 320+ EV, decisive victory for Obama, or one lone-wolf betting on a 280 EV squeaker for McCain.

I don't think anyone has any illusions that McCain is going to run away with the thing. If he pulls it out, it will still be close. It is all just going to come down to who actually shows up to vote. There is only one poll that matters, and the sample size is all-important.

 

[jpeyton]

One more maverick betting on McCain:

CNN's Bill Bennett

McCain 273 Obama 265

:laugh:

 

[jonks]

Aww, I was on vaca, missed the thread. Anyway, I say Obama wins with 349-189.

Obama wins the Kerry states plus NV, CO, NM, MO, FL, OH, IA, VA. Doesn't quite get IN, GA or NC.

 

[DrPizza]

I missed it too. But, I'll still put forth my prediction: it's either going to be close, or a blowout. I'm going for the extreme: picking McCain for only 118 electoral votes; the rest of the electoral votes to Obama. I could be very wrong if the pollsters have actually corrected for the demographic that doesn't have a land line. The cell phone only crowd tends to be more educated in general & thus the unpolled demographic is going to be more pro-Obama than McCain, tipping the polls a couple of percent in Obama's favor.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: DrPizza
I missed it too. But, I'll still put forth my prediction: it's either going to be close, or a blowout. I'm going for the extreme: picking McCain for only 118 electoral votes; the rest of the electoral votes to Obama. I could be very wrong if the pollsters have actually corrected for the demographic that doesn't have a land line. The cell phone only crowd tends to be more educated in general & thus the unpolled demographic is going to be more pro-Obama than McCain, tipping the polls a couple of percent in Obama's favor.

Text

even though your technically doesn't count, you just topped mine as the highest margin.

personally i think yours is going to be closer than mine.

 

[mshan]

http://www.centerforpolitics.o...e.php?id=LJS2008110301 :thumbsup:

 

[Mill]

I didn't get mine in but...

Obama - 336
McCain - 202

 

[TheSlamma]

Obama: 278
McSame: 260

 

[DrPizza]

That's interesting. I didn't realize the NYT's polls included cell phones, while a bunch of the other polls didn't. I thought the higher percentages for Obama on their polls were due to some intentional bias, rather than from them actually eliminating a bias from the polls.