Friday, March 9, 2012
CSM7 - Mega Hans Versus Giant Mittani
The CSM elections have hit their stride. 2012 marks the year that the election meta-game became fully integrated with the game itself.
If CCP had considered doing away with the CSM prior to 2012, that seems to no longer be an option. To remove the CSM now would be to remove a major component of EVE Online itself. It's fully meshed with the community as a whole. The increased participation and interest among the general playerbase speaks to this fully and completely.
So far, 10000 more accounts have voted in CSM7 than they did in CSM6. The number of accounts in EVE Online is roughly equivalent to what it was last year. The players are feeling more invested, more protective of their game. The playerbase has recognized the importance of these elections -- the CSM is the voice of the playerbase, the direct line of communication into CCP.
I've already written my CSM7 predictions. I've already written a short analysis. This post, I amend slightly the former, and add to the latter.
So where are these extra 10000 votes coming from. Ripard Teg, in a recent bit of CSM7 analysis of his own, figures that since the surge in interest from CSM5 to CSM6 came from nullsec voting blocs, that the surge from CSM6 to CSM7 is coming from nullsec voting blocs as well.
I could not disagree more.
First of all, the number of accounts in EVE Online has slightly decreased since last year (due to the Summer of Rage.) The distribution of the playerbase across New Eden hasn't changed. If anything, there are fewer large blocs. Whereas Goonswarm and Test Alliance remain as powerful as ever, the Russian bloc has fractured three ways in recent months. Goonswarm and Test don't have 10000 extra votes.
I contend that the sudden surge in voting is coming directly from non-bloc voters, especially those in Empire space. There's always been a level of malaise and apathy with Empire players, voting patterns through the previous six CSMs spell this out well enough. The difference this year is that for the last year they've been told to shut the hell up, if they don't want to get out, vote a candidate of their own, they should stop their bitching and moaning about nullsec's control of the CSM.
I think they took that suggestion to heart.
I think the most popular Empire candidate this election season is far and away Hans Jagerblitzen. He's captured the most interest from all the commentators. He's all over the forums, moreso than any other candidate (except Mittens) and the vast majority of it is positive. Hans has gone viral.
How does that affect The Mittani? Who has between 5000 and 6000 votes all locked up? The Mittani garnered 5365 votes for CSM6. At most, I can see him gaining another 10% this election. The Mittani's possible vote count has a cap. You can count Goonswarm in his camp, and then some much smaller proportion of votes from outside that bloc. That's it. The sky is not the limit for Mittens.
Hans, on the other hand. He can easily get 3500 to 4000 votes alone from the faction warfare camp. This is where I believe a large proportion of the new voting interest is coming from. The story does not end there, though. Hans is also trending very strongly across Empire space. He's popular with lowsec pirates. He's popular with highsec carebears. Empire players trust his vision of the game, that it's about balance, not favouring any one playstyle over another. So take Hans' faction warfare base and then add in his support across Empire and you have a candidate that could challenge The Mittani for the CSM chair.
I now believe that Hans Jagerblitzen will finish, at the minimum, a very strong second in the CSM7 election race.
What might happen if Hans did win the CSM chair? Would The Mittani pack up and resign? He's stated clearly enough that its the chair or nothing. He's stated that he wants a clear mandate for CSM7. What happens if Hans gets that mandate instead? How will The Mittani react? Ego is a large proportion of what drives Mittens.
Ego is not driving Hans campaign. Quite the opposite. He's been quite humble, all told. People believe in him because they believe he runs for the CSM not for himself but for the game. Which is why, I believe, if Hans did win the chair, he'd attempt to make concessions to The Mittani. Either offering him co-chair, or offering him the chair outright. I don't think being the CSM chairman is at all important to Hans, certainly not moreso than simply representing the people that voted for him and representing the best interests of the game.
Do I think Hans will win the chair? No. I think he'll come a strong second: The Mittani, Hans Jagerblitzen, Two step, Seleene, Dovinian, UAxDeath and Elise Randolph. But, I do not think that Hans winning the chair is a longshot. Either way, we have 11 more days of a most excellent race to watch and commentate on.
CSM elections. Does the EVE Online meta-game get any better than this?