I'd say NGC simply because Nintendo is proven, they have given me many hours of entertainment, so I trust that the NGC will give me many more. I am not as sure about the Xbox. I'll wait and see how the Xbox does, and play some games on my friends' Xboxes to see if it's worth buying, but I will not buy the Xbox over the NGC first, simple as that.
Two issues that I have not seen raised (or perhaps missed):
1) Microsoft has an incredible amount of "pull" in the technology world. They can "convince" many companies of coming on board to the e-box to develop games etc., for reasons that may have nothing to do with the console at all.
2) Microsoft has an enoromous amount of cash to throw around. I would not be surprised to see them purchase one of the big game developers as a way of becoming established in this market.
3) Microsoft always seems to come up smelling roses. How many times do they ever really lose? Perhaps they will not be number one right away, maybe not ever, but I would be shocked if they were not a strong number two.
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