Gemini (FuryX2) looms near

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sontin

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2011
3,273
149
106
I told ya, CF 2x Nano (175W TDP each) will be 40-50% faster than NVIDIAs $1000 Titan-X.

Im expecting Gemini at $1500 and it will be the undisputed champion (single card) in performance for the entire 2016 as well.

Yeah, as long there is a profile for AFR and the 4GB memory is enough.
Otherwise a simple GTX980TI for $650 (or right now for $590) will be faster, cheaper and uses less power.
 
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Feb 19, 2009
10,457
10
76
Why not ??? its going to be faster than 2x GTX980ti at the same price but at a single card configuration AND LOWER POWER.

Because its AMD.

@sontin

That applies to every gamer who has multi-GPUs. This enthusiast crowd are fully aware of the limitations.

And no, 4GB is a non issue because ZERO games run into a vram bottleneck at playable settings, even with 2x 980TI OC.

Combined with memory optimizations that AMD has been doing (look at recent releases where they use less vram than NV's GPU), it's a non-issue. Look at a recent massive scope AAA title like GTA V, 4K results are laughable maxed out is applied. Titan X SLI ~36 fps.



Note, that's with FXAA, not even the vram killing MSAA that impacts performance massively.

Vram is not an issue because current GPUs lack the grunt to really max out 4K, for 4GB vram to be a bottleneck, you need 4K res, 4K textures and 4x MSAA. Even Shadow of Mordor with its open world and 4K textures don't bottleneck Fury X CF.
 
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ultima_trev

Member
Nov 4, 2015
148
66
66
Hopefully the Fury X2 will MSRP at no more than double that of the Fury X/Nano, which should hopefully be $1,200 tops considering the recent price reduction.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,400
5,635
136
BREAKING NEWS, I've found images of the dual-GPU* Fury!



*Well technically it doesn't have hardware Transform & Lighting, so it doesn't really count as a GPU according to NVidia.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,362
136
BREAKING NEWS, I've found images of the dual-GPU* Fury!



*Well technically it doesn't have hardware Transform & Lighting, so it doesn't really count as a GPU according to NVidia.

ehehe nice
 

Timmah!

Golden Member
Jul 24, 2010
1,560
912
136
Everyone already compares GK104 to GM204 but that's not the reason why your post is flat out wrong. How many times does this need to be repeated? It's not about Kepler -> Maxwell. It's about 20 years of GPU development and NV's history prior to Kepler. You are using 2 wrong generations to prove a point -- the two generations that are responsible for the change in NV's strategy and pricing. This is like saying if apples were genetically modified in 2012 and their prices increased (Kepler) and then oranges were genetically modified in 2014 (Maxwell) and prices increased even more, then all fruit for decades prior to 2012 must have also been genetically modified and cost a lot and the small price increases we are seeing are just inflation and accounting for the cost of new modified fruit to come in 2016, etc. No, you need to analyze a longer series of history to have a proper assessment of reality and dive deep into the earnings/gross margins of companies that sell fruit. If you do all of that, everything many of us have been telling you will become crystal clear.

So obviously you used two generations that incorporated the new NV strategy to prove a point that nothing has changed. You have to use generations prior to the new change of strategy. What generations are those? Don't have to go too far. Fermi is already a good start.

$199-239 GTX560/560Ti are spiritual predecessors to $399 GTX670/$499 GTX680
GTX560/560Ti are spiritual predecessors to $330 GTX970/ $550 980.

$349 GTX470/570 & $499 480/580 are spiritual successors to $650 GTX780/ $699 780Ti.

980Ti is not a fully unlocked flagship chip so that's the current generation's GTX570. The Titan X is the old gen's GTX580 3GB that cost $549.

What's the Fury X? Well it's simple. HD6970. HD6970 (Fury X) competed well against NV's 2nd best GTX570 (980Ti today), while it lost to the fully unlocked flagship GTX580 (Titan X).

So yes, absolutely, both AMD and NV raised prices. AMD raised prices to ATI's historical levels but NV went even further.

You realize that 6800GT cost $399 and X850 Pro cost $399? In the NV/ATi line-up, those cards were at least as fast as a GTX980 relative to today's 980Ti/Fury X. Guess how much GTX980 cost when it launched? $550.

What about even further? 9700Pro cost $399 - that's the flagship ATI card. What about 9800Pro and 5900U? $499. Those were not $649 Fury X or $699 GTX780Ti or $649 980Ti.

Like how many examples of the past do we have to show you to get the point?

Since this thread is about Fury X2, let's focus on AMD/ATI. I'll use ATI's/AMD's historical dual-chip flagship cards to prove it to you that prices skyrocketed and that your assertion that GPU prices have always been this high and it's normal is flat out wrong.

HD3870X2 = $449
HD4870X2 = $549
HD5970 = $599
HD6990 = $699
HD7990 = $999
R9 295X2 = $1499
Fury X2 = $449 like the HD3870X2? $599 like the HD5970? $699 like the HD6990 flagship? Sure thing! :whiste:

Dude, just admit it, GPU prices have increased 50-100%. If you are new to PC hardware in relative ters, that's OK. However, don't try to obfuscate the reality of what has happened in GPUs in the last 3-3.5 years. We've never had this type of pricing before.

Right now a 980Ti isn't at all like the 6800Ultra/UE, or the GTX285 or the GeForce 4 Ti 4600/4800 or the 5950U. It's not even a full chip, similar to a GTX570, a chip that cost $349.



Sure thing, like GTX970 for $330 was a fantasy 10 months after NV milked us with a $699 780Ti - on the same node? That's why NV/AMD are struggling selling $500 Fury, $570 Fury X, and $550-580 980Ti cards / sarcasm. Why don't you go and study the financials of NV from 2009 until today and come back with better facts. The only person living in fantasy that GPUs have to cost $700-1000 and mid-range cards were like GTX680/980 at $500-550 at launch of a new generation is YOU. You have bought into the AMD/NV marketing and the entire costs are skyrocketing so we must increase prices 50-100% to survive PR. That's exactly what they want you to believe so that for 2016 Pascal, NV can release 980's successor for $599-649 and you won't even blink cuz you'll defend it as the 'new' flagship as it will beat 980Ti by 20-30%.

No, you won't even remember how NV's next gen mid-range card whipped the last gen's flagship, for instance, how a $199 6600GT beat $499 9800XT / 5950U. Instead, you'll just accept it as the normal status quo that mid-range Pascal should cost $500-600 just because it's "better" value than the last gen's Fury X and 980Ti. Congrats, NV/AMD have won.

Great post as usual. Some people seem to have selective memory or something. My GTX590 cost 609 EUROs in 2011. Titan Z´s price was 3000 last year. I can accept rising prices every year due to inflation and rising costs, but if someone is going to tell me it has to be 5x more expensive as it used to be, cause the manufacturing costs have skyrocketed, i honestly have no words...
 
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gamervivek

Senior member
Jan 17, 2011
490
53
91
nvidia were trying to get to $1000 since 8800GTX's roaring success, 8800Ultra was pretty close. They however faced a resilient AMD whose small dies competed with their >500mm2 behemoths.

The problem for AMD and consumers is that AMD are not ahead on the clockspeed front and thus their small dies are no longer matching nvidia's big ones. In fact the situation is 180 now with AMD's bigger dies having to compete with nvidia's 1.2Ghz and above chips. And at the top where there's no where left to go, they're simply not able to compete once the clocks are turned to the max.

If AMD don't close the clockspeed gap and it increases even further you could see next gen Titan going for even higher than 1k of today's, HBM2 and new node yields would be a good encouragement too.
 

provost

Member
Aug 7, 2013
51
1
16
Everyone already compares GK104 to GM204 but that's not the reason why your post is flat out wrong. How many times does this need to be repeated? It's not about Kepler -> Maxwell. It's about 20 years of GPU development and NV's history prior to Kepler. You are using 2 wrong generations to prove a point -- the two generations that are responsible for the change in NV's strategy and pricing. This is like saying if apples were genetically modified in 2012 and their prices increased (Kepler) and then oranges were genetically modified in 2014 (Maxwell) and prices increased even more, then all fruit for decades prior to 2012 must have also been genetically modified and cost a lot and the small price increases we are seeing are just inflation and accounting for the cost of new modified fruit to come in 2016, etc. No, you need to analyze a longer series of history to have a proper assessment of reality and dive deep into the earnings/gross margins of companies that sell fruit. If you do all of that, everything many of us have been telling you will become crystal clear.

So obviously you used two generations that incorporated the new NV strategy to prove a point that nothing has changed. You have to use generations prior to the new change of strategy. What generations are those? Don't have to go too far. Fermi is already a good start.

$199-239 GTX560/560Ti are spiritual predecessors to $399 GTX670/$499 GTX680
GTX560/560Ti are spiritual predecessors to $330 GTX970/ $550 980.

$349 GTX470/570 & $499 480/580 are spiritual successors to $650 GTX780/ $699 780Ti.

980Ti is not a fully unlocked flagship chip so that's the current generation's GTX570. The Titan X is the old gen's GTX580 3GB that cost $549.

What's the Fury X? Well it's simple. HD6970. HD6970 (Fury X) competed well against NV's 2nd best GTX570 (980Ti today), while it lost to the fully unlocked flagship GTX580 (Titan X).

So yes, absolutely, both AMD and NV raised prices. AMD raised prices to ATI's historical levels but NV went even further.

You realize that 6800GT cost $399 and X850 Pro cost $399? In the NV/ATi line-up, those cards were at least as fast as a GTX980 relative to today's 980Ti/Fury X. Guess how much GTX980 cost when it launched? $550.

What about even further? 9700Pro cost $399 - that's the flagship ATI card. What about 9800Pro and 5900U? $499. Those were not $649 Fury X or $699 GTX780Ti or $649 980Ti.

Like how many examples of the past do we have to show you to get the point?

Since this thread is about Fury X2, let's focus on AMD/ATI. I'll use ATI's/AMD's historical dual-chip flagship cards to prove it to you that prices skyrocketed and that your assertion that GPU prices have always been this high and it's normal is flat out wrong.

HD3870X2 = $449
HD4870X2 = $549
HD5970 = $599
HD6990 = $699
HD7990 = $999
R9 295X2 = $1499
Fury X2 = $449 like the HD3870X2? $599 like the HD5970? $699 like the HD6990 flagship? Sure thing! :whiste:

Dude, just admit it, GPU prices have increased 50-100%. If you are new to PC hardware in relative ters, that's OK. However, don't try to obfuscate the reality of what has happened in GPUs in the last 3-3.5 years. We've never had this type of pricing before.

Right now a 980Ti isn't at all like the 6800Ultra/UE, or the GTX285 or the GeForce 4 Ti 4600/4800 or the 5950U. It's not even a full chip, similar to a GTX570, a chip that cost $349.



Sure thing, like GTX970 for $330 was a fantasy 10 months after NV milked us with a $699 780Ti - on the same node? That's why NV/AMD are struggling selling $500 Fury, $570 Fury X, and $550-580 980Ti cards / sarcasm. Why don't you go and study the financials of NV from 2009 until today and come back with better facts. The only person living in fantasy that GPUs have to cost $700-1000 and mid-range cards were like GTX680/980 at $500-550 at launch of a new generation is YOU. You have bought into the AMD/NV marketing and the entire costs are skyrocketing so we must increase prices 50-100% to survive PR. That's exactly what they want you to believe so that for 2016 Pascal, NV can release 980's successor for $599-649 and you won't even blink cuz you'll defend it as the 'new' flagship as it will beat 980Ti by 20-30%.

No, you won't even remember how NV's next gen mid-range card whipped the last gen's flagship, for instance, how a $199 6600GT beat $499 9800XT / 5950U. Instead, you'll just accept it as the normal status quo that mid-range Pascal should cost $500-600 just because it's "better" value than the last gen's Fury X and 980Ti. Congrats, NV/AMD have won.

Good post. The GPU makers are essentially using these prices to fund other r&d, especially NV. They talk a big game about focus on PC gaming, but not sure how accurate it is, as evident by sub par optimizations of recently released titles, lack of sli support (not sure how cfx is lately) and blaming and throwing essentially the whole kitchen sink at the developers for all their problems. Not sure how much of this is due to proprietary tech being shoved down the install base's throat, such as game works, gsync, fsync, etc, but all these ecosystems seem to benefit the gpu makers more than the customers, in my opinion. Why would anyone want to pay a higher price for all of the issues listed above, and I know that some people would not, including myself. Not to mention limiting optimization support cycle for high end gpus the moment that the next iteration of so called "new tech" drops, based on the gpu makers' definition of how new tech is defined within their closed ecosystem.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,901
2,630
136
Keep in mind $500 for a 9800 Pro in 2003 dollars is $620 in 2015 dollars based on the 1.79% inflation rate during that period. Computer hardware operates under different constraints than the standard CPI, but expecting the price of a given tier of cards to stay the same over the decades isn't necessarily reasonable.

Similarly, expecting the Fury X to be similar to 6970 pricing is not really fair, since those were chips and cards designed with very different goals. The 6970 at 350mm^2 was never really meant to go up against a 520mm^2 GF110, the fact that it did so well and so efficiently is just a testament to how well AMD did with VLIW4 and the 40nm node. Fury X is a massively different beast, with AMD deciding to go right after the outright performance crown nVidia has held for a decade. They didn't get it, but the economics of the two cards are completely different with Fiji being almost twice the size of Cayman.

I feel the bigger issue is not so much that absolute pricing has gone up (though it has to some extent), it that they have bifurcated the big die and upper midrange parts into two release cycles. You can't just buy the 8800GTX, then in two years buy a 280, then 480 and have top of the line performance with a massive jump at each tier. Now you either need to upgrade every year or choose either the x80 or x80 Ti version, and hope you don't go wrong and get saddled with something like the 780 Ti where "aggressive optimizations" for new parts puts your <2 year old GPU at a tier below a cut down midrange part from the new generation in new games.
 

Mondozei

Golden Member
Jul 7, 2013
1,043
41
86
I'm excited for the release because when arctic islands releases this card will be around $500-600 similar to the R9 295x2. But it'll use a lot less power, and be smaller.


This is an excellent point. AMD has progressively stepped up their game on dual GPUs. The 7990 was a total disaster. The 295X2 really improved things but still had some way to go on frame times. If AMD keeps iterating on this, then Gemini could really be a great GPU.

Given AMD's recent driver focus, chances are also much higher that we won't be without a Crossfire profile for newer games. You add in lower power(~375W) and it's a great GPU, especially for higher resolutions.

The major negating factor would be Artic Islands. But this in large part depends on the notion that both AMD/NV would release their full fat chips for consumers right off the bat, which I've always been mildly skeptical of.

If Artic/Pascal are instead paced more modestly, to gain about a 30-40% improvement per year and not be left without any real GPU answer in 2017 if everything is released at once in 2016, then the value of this dual GPU would be even higher.

By this measure, the real value of Gemini could probably show itself next year, rather than this year, as you indicated.
 

lavaheadache

Diamond Member
Jan 28, 2005
6,893
14
81
When AMD gets beaten by nVidia, just go for a dual GPU card that only guys with the right mainboard can go along with. OH and don't forget to buy a 1200 W PSU too!

AMD is pathetic at this point. No wonder the GTX 680 GTX to 980 TI went from 500€ to 700€. The last good AMD was the 7970 GHZ edition. The Fury X gets completely destroyed by the 980 TI.


Exactly the type of attitude we need around here
 

Mondozei

Golden Member
Jul 7, 2013
1,043
41
86
How did that happened? Custom R290s for dirt cheap for months before the 390 debuted... but they sold very poorly, but the 390 manage to sell well? Even JP Morgan has the last quarter, AMD gaining back some dGPU marketshare, which is not what we were expecting.

No you're right but if anything this only strengthens RS' point about the irrationality of the masses.

For those of us who know the numbers, the difference between the 200-series and 300-series is there, but it's fairly small. Yet what accounts for the fact that the 300-series sell great and the 200-series doesn't? In many cases, getting a new 290 is a far better value play than getting a new 390.

But that's kind of the point, isn't it: most people are not informed in their buying decisions and are swayed by perception and brand psychology in general.

It's kind of depressing, you want to believe people are informed citizens but over and over again, they prove that they are shockingly easy to manipulate and are swayed by fickle impulses rather than rational thought.
 

3DVagabond

Lifer
Aug 10, 2009
11,951
204
106
No you're right but if anything this only strengthens RS' point about the irrationality of the masses.

For those of us who know the numbers, the difference between the 200-series and 300-series is there, but it's fairly small. Yet what accounts for the fact that the 300-series sell great and the 200-series doesn't? In many cases, getting a new 290 is a far better value play than getting a new 390.

But that's kind of the point, isn't it: most people are not informed in their buying decisions and are swayed by perception and brand psychology in general.

It's kind of depressing, you want to believe people are informed citizens but over and over again, they prove that they are shockingly easy to manipulate and are swayed by fickle impulses rather than rational thought.

Yes, but Tonga which isn't simply a clocked up Tahiti, but a new chip, people think should cost less or the same.
 

Mondozei

Golden Member
Jul 7, 2013
1,043
41
86
Great post as usual. Some people seem to have selective memory or something. My GTX590 cost 609 EUROs in 2011. Titan Z´s price was 3000 last year.

Titan Z is a terrible example, though. That GPU was a flop before it was even released. Secondly, dual-GPUs are a niche within a niche. If you look at single dGPUs and compare arch to arch, the price rise is there - I'm not denying that - but it's also far more gradual than the numbers being thrown around($500 to $549).

I'm also saying it has to put into the context of the slowmotion death of Moore's law.

People who ignore that development can be fairly accused of having selective memory.

Yes, but Tonga which isn't simply a clocked up Tahiti, but a new chip, people think should cost less or the same.

Which Tonga, though? I was vocal before the 380X was even released that anything above $199 is simply too much when you compare it to the 280X. I think the benchmarks validate that viewpoint.

Maybe it's unfair to the 380X simply because the 7970 Ghz was/is a legendary GPU, but the market realities are what they are. I don't believe people will buy a $30 more expensive GPU that performs identically simply because it has a lower wattage. But again, maybe I'm wrong. I didn't believe the 300-series would sell well either, because I looked at the numbers. But boy was I wrong on that one.

Maybe I should look less at the numbers and read more psychology books. I'm only half-joking.
 
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3DVagabond

Lifer
Aug 10, 2009
11,951
204
106
Titan Z is a terrible example, though. That GPU was a flop before it was even released. Secondly, dual-GPUs are a niche within a niche. If you look at single dGPUs and compare arch to arch, the price rise is there - I'm not denying that - but it's also far more gradual than the numbers being thrown around($500 to $549).

I'm also saying it has to put into the context of the slowmotion death of Moore's law.

People who ignore that development can be fairly accused of having selective memory.



Which Tonga, though? I was vocal before the 380X was even released that anything above $199 is simply too much when you compare it to the 280X. I think the benchmarks validate that viewpoint.

Maybe it's unfair to the 380X simply because the 7970 Ghz was/is a legendary GPU, but the market realities are what they are. I don't believe people will buy a $30 more expensive GPU that performs identically simply because it has a lower wattage. But again, maybe I'm wrong. I didn't believe the 300-series would sell well either, because I looked at the numbers. But boy was I wrong on that one.

Maybe I should look less at the numbers and read more psychology books. I'm only half-joking.

They don't perform exactly the same. I can't find the review right now, but tessellation performance is much higher as well as Texel fill rate. It also incorporates the DSP to support True audio. It actually has more transistors even though it has a narrower memory bus.

Now, back to my point. Many people are now paying more for the 390/X than the 290/X when they are physically the same chip. Where Tonga is actually a newer and improved chip and people think it should cost the same or less.

The reason is that for most of it's life Hawaii was not being shown in it's full potential. The 780/ti was always shown as being higher performing than the 290/X. Just as when the 980/70 were shown as even higher performing than the 290/X as they beat the 780/ti. They aren't compared to the 390/X today though. Now the 390/X are quite a bit above the 780/ti. We are supposed to believe that AMD has sprinkled some fairy dust in their drivers on a chip this old and boosted their performance relative to nVidia.

If we were shown the true performance capability of Hawaii all along, and it was selling for the prices that it was, would anyone but a pure nVidia fan/AMD hater have bought a 780/ti/Titan? Or even the 980/70 when it was released? Instead we have AMD almost ceasing to do business. It's really too bad because, using Tonga as an example, it's still going on. Tonga has appreciably higher performance capability than we are being shown. Mark my words.
 

SimianR

Senior member
Mar 10, 2011
609
16
81
For Amd to sell cards well, it doesn't just take making the best product possible. It also takes Nvidia making the worst product possible at the same time. When this happens, Amd will sell half as many units as they should meanwhile still being outsold by the green giant.

Sadly, this is true. Look at the 5000 and 7000 series as perfect examples. Sure AMD was selling a decent amount of cards, but it seemed like NVIDIA just had to release a decent if not mediocre line of GPU's to compete (not a clear "winner") and all the market share was lost again. The stars only line up so many times it seems, and if they couldn't do it when they had everything going right for them, it seems tough to think it can be turned around. But even a 60-40 market split would be a lot healthier than where it stands now.. if people want to see sane GPU prices they can only hope AMD will be around for awhile.

Back to the thread topic, I kind of wish AMD didn't focus so much energy on the dual cards. It seems like the market is ultra niche, and if the 295X2 is anything to go by, this thing will probably launch at a crazy expensive price only to be heavily discounted a few months later when they can't move the cards. I also feel like a dual fury card is going to put a magnifying glass on the limitations of HBM1 to 4GB, as there may be certain scenarios/settings where this card actually will run into vram limits since it will actually have the horsepower to back it up.

I think if AMD launches this thing at somewhat sane price ($999 or cheaper) then it could actually be a decent choice. Somehow I doubt we'll see it that low though.
 
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Timmah!

Golden Member
Jul 24, 2010
1,560
912
136
Titan Z is a terrible example, though. That GPU was a flop before it was even released. Secondly, dual-GPUs are a niche within a niche. If you look at single dGPUs and compare arch to arch, the price rise is there - I'm not denying that - but it's also far more gradual than the numbers being thrown around($500 to $549).

I'm also saying it has to put into the context of the slowmotion death of Moore's law.

People who ignore that development can be fairly accused of having selective memory.

It was flop before it was released based on what? I mean except the advertised 3000 pricetag? Performance-wise, for my purpose it was 2x as fast as my 590. If it´s cost was 600 EUROs like my 590 used to be, actually if it was 1000 like GTX690 used to be, i would be all over it...but no, it had to be 3000. I refuse to believe this is down to Moore´s law.

Granted, this is extreme case of price increase, because its the product on top of the performance chain. But the price increase happened with single GPUs and its was in no way gradual. Unless you consider the price difference between GTX460/560 ako GF104/114 at cca 220-250 EUROs and GTX 680 aka GK104 at 550-600 EUROs gradual. Personally, i dont.

Bottom line, everything Russian Sensation wrote, is complete truth.
 

3DVagabond

Lifer
Aug 10, 2009
11,951
204
106
I'm actually afraid to see shat dual Fiji is going to sell for. I wish the nVidia apologists would quit driving the cost of AMD GPU's up.
 

crisium

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2001
2,643
615
136
HD3870X2 = $449
HD4870X2 = $549
HD5970 = $599
HD6990 = $699
HD7990 = $999
R9 295X2 = $1499
Fury X2 = $449 like the HD3870X2? $599 like the HD5970? $699 like the HD6990 flagship? Sure thing! :whiste:

Dude, just admit it, GPU prices have increased 50-100%.

Realizations like this are depressing. Much like discovering that, mathematically, the GTX 980 is the 560 of its architecture but costs twice as much. Both companies have doubled GPU prices in less than 5 years. With Lisa Su's pricing strategy I don't expect it to be $999 since it will be faster than a Titan X - at least when scaling is in order. $1500 seems pointless though, so I hope they do try $999 to get at least some interest in the product.
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,348
642
121
I'm guessing $1100 msrp. Quick discounts right after or during holiday season to $1000. When pascal has been on the market for a hit, a drop (official or unofficial) in price. And then once arctic Islands releases I expect to see some $600 firesales and that's when we'll see what the better value cards are. Tbh, if arctic Islands has 8gb of vram and so does pascal, I don't have faith fury x will hold up.
 
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