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Nov 8, 2012
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Based on simple math (deaths/current cases) the death rate is 6.2%. Remember that's EVERYONE all locations all age groups not just a cruise ship. (Johns Hopkins map)

Holy. Fuck.

Christ, you have to be a 2 year old if you simply take those numbers and declare the death rate. By doing such, you have declared that the amount of people tested is equal to the total amount of people that have had the virus (either symptomatically or asymptomatically).... and of course, you would have to be mentally retarded to do something that moronic.


 
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ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
39,101
19,807
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Holy. Fuck.

Christ, you have to be a 2 year old if you simply take those numbers and declare the death rate. By doing such, you have declared that the amount of people tested is equal to the total amount of people that have had the virus (either symptomatically or asymptomatically).... and of course, you would have to be mentally retarded to do something that moronic.



So what you're saying is that we can never know because projections are bs, and we don't know the actual numbers, so you can just make them up or whatever. Maybe if our lazy good for nothing republican leadership were men of action, then more accurate numbers would be available.

Newsflash, brainiac, you'll be hard pressed to find diligent and honest numbers from every state anyways.


Guess what, you don't know what the real numbers are, it will be a long time and probably some lawsuits to even attain data, so move along with your bad self.
 
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SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
8,643
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They are going to pee on you regardless of what you post.

If you posted that they found a cure they would still pee on you.

God the American right is the biggest bunch of crybabies.

If Trump cured cancer you'd still want him impeached.
 
Nov 8, 2012
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So what you're saying is that we can never know because projections are bs, and we don't know the actual numbers, so you can just make them up or whatever. Maybe if our lazy good for nothing republican leadership were men of action, then more accurate numbers would be available.

Newsflash, brainiac, you'll be hard pressed to find diligent and honest numbers from every state anyways.


Guess what, you don't know what the real numbers are, it will be a long time and probably some lawsuits to even attain data, so move along with your bad self.

If you're going to reply, then at least watch the video dumb dumb.

I'm saying the "actual numbers" are BS, and the projections are what you should go by. So it's obvious that you have zero clue of what I just posted. I mean seriously, I've never seen a more dumb post.

If you aren't counting millions upon millions of people just because they are asymptomatic, then you are VASTLY overstating the death rate.

But don't strain your brain to learn to do 3rd grade level math or anything
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
38,205
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Holy. Fuck.

Christ, you have to be a 2 year old if you simply take those numbers and declare the death rate. By doing such, you have declared that the amount of people tested is equal to the total amount of people that have had the virus (either symptomatically or asymptomatically).... and of course, you would have to be mentally retarded to do something that moronic.


Clearly you have never been taught the definition of current. We won't know the real death rate until this is over. Again, couldn't figure that out could you?
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,389
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Not when the antibody test results are wrong half of the time:

Bayesian statistics are fun!




So in reality there is no point in anyone getting an antibody test if it is incorrect up to 50% the time.

That 50% number depends on the false-data rate in comparison to the actual infection rate.

For easy math, let's assume a false positive rate of 1% and no false negatives. If you test 10,000 people, 100 of them are going to be falsely positive. If the actual rate of what you are testing is also 1%, then you'll get 100 true positives. Which is your 50%. If the actual rate is 5%, then you get 500 true positives and 95 false positives, so much better accuracy, even though the test didn't change.
 
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Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
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And anyone else that has an opinion that doesn't comply with your ideas...
The reason many people "pee" on yours and Greenman's opinions isn't because of disagreement per se, but because you rarely if ever provide any supporting logic and argument to back your opinions. Instead, you just exude an entitlement that your opinions should be immune from criticism and debate just because they're your opinions. While rarely if ever extending that same to others' opinions.
 
Reactions: pcgeek11

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
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If you're going to reply, then at least watch the video dumb dumb.

I'm saying the "actual numbers" are BS, and the projections are what you should go by. So it's obvious that you have zero clue of what I just posted. I mean seriously, I've never seen a more dumb post.

If you aren't counting millions upon millions of people just because they are asymptomatic, then you are VASTLY overstating the death rate.

But don't strain your brain to learn to do 3rd grade level math or anything

If you're going to reply, use your words. I'm not watching your shitty youtube videos. The death rate will be counted by the numbers available. Don't like it? ask why 'Murica fucked up the testing for so long.

I even said the same thing your berating others for "ignoring". Oh, you think that you're so much smarter than everyone? Hey brainiac, your epiphany was pointed out months ago. Fuggin moron, you are.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
30,359
44,780
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It's good news that covid19 is only 6 times as deadly as the flu, instead of roughly 10 times as deadly.

The bad news is this will probably embolden the science denying, sociopath FYGM trumptards to behave in ways that will make up the difference, making this data almost completely moot.

Are republicans sure they want back news like this? They are currently trying to undermine and cheat the Nov election (see Texas for a great example), it's harder to weaponize a pandemic for politics if you tell people it's not as dangerous as you thought.
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,389
8,547
126
It's good news that covid19 is only 6 times as deadly as the flu, instead of roughly 10 times as deadly.
the IFR for the flu is the subject of a lot of speculation. as shit as the data are for covid, they're worse for the flu. even something fairly well studied such as the 2009 H1N1 outbreak can come up with wildly different estimates, and that's for CFR which should be simpler to pin down.
 
May 13, 2009
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Funny how all these obese, McDonald's eating, cigarette smoking, diabetes having idiots think they are safe. Hobbies include eating fast food and drinking like a fish. Nothing could go wrong for them...
 
Reactions: zinfamous

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,230
6,634
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Funny how all these obese, McDonald's eating, cigarette smoking, diabetes having idiots think they are safe. Hobbies include eating fast food and drinking like a fish. Nothing could go wrong for them...
I don't want people to eat poor food, smoke, drink, or have genetic diseases. But we all didn't start from a level playing field. Some people have suffered from bad genes, poverty and grew up in a an exceptionally psychologically sick culture. Anyone who has his or her own emotional problems can find some relief in putting such people down. If self hate is present, one can say, well I am superior to them. We are all the same and when you condemn the fucked up you condemn yourself.
 

esquared

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 8, 2000
24,699
5,850
146
there's also a massive pneumonia outbreak going on right now:


totally unrelated, i'm sure.
So they separate their excess pneumonia deaths and not attribute them to CV?
Probably another reason why their CV deaths are lower.

I mean that what happened in China back in Dec. They were seeing a rash of the death from pneumonia.
But reality was, they were from CV.
 
May 13, 2009
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I don't want people to eat poor food, smoke, drink, or have genetic diseases. But we all didn't start from a level playing field. Some people have suffered from bad genes, poverty and grew up in a an exceptionally psychologically sick culture. Anyone who has his or her own emotional problems can find some relief in putting such people down. If self hate is present, one can say, well I am superior to them. We are all the same and when you condemn the fucked up you condemn yourself.
Never claimed I wasn't a sick puppy. Also never mentioned genetic conditions. I just find it funny some triple chinned neckbeards are clamoring for a coronavirus style health check when they aren't in any condition for that.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
14,704
9,585
136
Holy. Fuck.

Christ, you have to be a 2 year old if you simply take those numbers and declare the death rate. By doing such, you have declared that the amount of people tested is equal to the total amount of people that have had the virus (either symptomatically or asymptomatically).... and of course, you would have to be mentally retarded to do something that moronic.




Well, of course, stripped of the abusive ranting, you are right that that's an inaccurate and simplistic way to decide the case fatality rate. Because both 'infection' numbers and 'death' numbers will be inaccurate.

But a more accurate way is to do random testing with a reliable test to work out the infection rate, then look at the excess-death figures to work out the death rate.

That seems to lead to a figure of about 1-2%. Which is much greater than the rate for flu.
 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
25,901
24,231
136
So in reality there is no point in anyone getting an antibody test if it is incorrect up to 50% the time.

Yeah my city is offering free covid testing plus antibody testing but I see no point either in getting the antibody test at this point in time due to the reports it's wrong around half the time.
 
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