GOP ACA Replacement Imminent....Predictions

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Chromagnus

Senior member
Feb 28, 2017
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Here is a good article about why "selling across state lines" won't be the big fix that a lot of people think it will be:

The effort to replace Obamacare faces increasing challenges, the more it is subjected to the harsh light of scrutiny. A good example is the proposal, apparently central to the Republican replacement plans, to allow people to buy health insurance across state lines.

This idea has been put forward as an elixir to all sorts of health sector problems. In his joint address to Congress, President Donald Trump argued that allowing people to buy health insurance in other states would “create a truly competitive national marketplace that will bring costs way down and provide far better care. So important.”

The American Academy of Actuaries is less optimistic: “The ability to lower premiums by allowing cross-state sales of insurance is limited,” the organization says, “because a key driver of health insurance premiums is local costs of health care.” When the idea was floated last year at an industry conference, the “audience literally laughed,” one health care consultant noted.

Why do careful students of health care view cross-state sales of insurance skeptically?

One reason is that it is already allowed –- and yet basically doesn’t happen. States possess the authority to sanction sales across their borders, and to define the conditions for such sales. In addition to this generic state authority, Section 1333 of Obamacare authorizes “health care choice compacts” across states. As of last month, five states had passed legislation allowing insurance plans that cross state lines: Rhode Island, Wyoming, Georgia, Kentucky and Maine. Georgia’s law has been in effect since 2011, yet no insurer has yet offered an out-of-state policy there — or in any of the other four states. If this is the key to bringing costs down, why doesn’t anyone want to do it?

Proponents of cross-state sales argue that the Obamacare provision is too limited, and that other authorities aren’t broad enough for the idea to succeed.

As things stand, the federal government does not force state A to allow sales of insurance products from an insurer in state B, even if the consumer protection laws and health insurance regulations in state B are much different. State regulations govern items as varied as the generosity of coverage to appeal processes for denied services. A federal law that forced state A to accept state B’s less restrictive regulations could engender a race to the bottom in such standards across states, and also create an adverse selection problem for insurers in state A — which presumably would still have to meet A’s regulations, and therefore would attract mainly the less healthy beneficiaries in that state.

If an insurer from state B would instead have to meet state A’s regulations, then it’s not clear what the federal law would accomplish.

Local Matters
The bigger challenge for this idea, though, is that almost all health care is delivered locally. To succeed, insurance companies need a significant toe-hold with hospitals and other providers in their local market; an out-of-state insurer would lack that and thus struggle in its negotiations to form a delivery network. This is why many new entrants to the health insurance market haven’t succeeded.

As the American Academy of Actuaries emphasizes, “For insurers to sell across state lines, they must develop provider networks by establishing reimbursement agreements with hospitals and physicians, or by purchasing access to an existing network. Any cost savings resulting from differences in benefit coverage requirements among states can be small compared to cost savings that can be accomplished through negotiating strong provider contracts.”

That view is not limited to actuaries. A scholar at the Institute for Policy Innovation, which is devoted to promoting free markets and limited government, agreed that “it is a big problem”: “Just because a good affordable policy is available in another state doesn’t mean that I would be able to get the network of physicians and the good prices that are available in that other state.”

For similar reasons, a senior research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation has argued that “No one should be under the illusion you can dramatically lower the cost of insurance in Los Angeles if you buy an Arkansas policy.”

And therein is the core problem for the effort to replace Obamacare. Campaigns succeed by generating easy-to-understand solutions to problems, but there are no easy answers on improving health care quality and reducing its cost.

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2017/03/07/443794.htm
 
Reactions: DarthKyrie
Nov 30, 2006
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Hey guys, if the Democrats are hellbent on obstruction then the Republicans should refuse to compromise because the Democrats passed this bill originally without Republican votes...because the Republicans were hellbent on obstruction. It's not like this problem wasn't 100% foreseeable. We tried to warn conservatives that being relentlessly hellbent on obstruction for the last eight years would have consequences but you didn't listen. You reap what you sow.

Also, any plan that tries to eliminate the individual mandate but keep guaranteed issue and community rating is not a good place to start negotiations. It shows that one side doesn't even understand the issue it's negotiating on. They need to learn what they are talking about first.

If you think that the left is ever going to sign on to a bill that takes insurance away from tens of millions of people you've lost your mind. If you think it's a good electoral strategy to hope that a law fails while your party is in power and has explicitly chosen to do nothing about it and in fact has tried to sabotage it at every turn...well...good luck with that.
Still in denial I see....the individual mandate has effectively failed. Deal with it.
 
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Chromagnus

Senior member
Feb 28, 2017
255
111
86
Still in denial I see....the individual mandate has effectively failed.

The mandate as it currently stands in the ACA isn't working as well as it should be but the mandate should be fixed and not removed. A mandate is necessary for keeping healthy people in the pool which is essential for affordable rates.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,523
54,349
136
Still in denial I see....the individual mandate has effectively failed. Deal with it.

The mandate hasn't failed, that's ridiculous. It might not be as strong as it should be, but failure? Of course not.

It's a literal required component, eliminating it is a nonstarter and anyone who understands health care knows this. Deal with it.
 
Reactions: DarthKyrie
Nov 30, 2006
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The mandate as it currently stands in the ACA isn't working as well as it should be but the mandate should be fixed and not removed. A mandate is necessary for keeping healthy people in the pool which is essential for affordable rates.
How should the mandate be fixed? Raise the penalties even higher?
 

Chromagnus

Senior member
Feb 28, 2017
255
111
86
I must be missing something here. Is there any legitimate upside to prohibiting sales across State lines?

The main thing against it is the "race to the bottom" argument but I haven't researched that enough to give a full opinion on whether or not that will happen. I was mainly pointing out that it's not a major fix. The upside of it is very limited and there is a potentially big downside. It's been talked about by a lot of politicians as something that is going to fix everything, and it won't.
 
Nov 30, 2006
15,456
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The mandate hasn't failed, that's ridiculous. It might not be as strong as it should be, but failure? Of course not.

It's a literal required component, eliminating it is a nonstarter and anyone who understands health care knows this. Deal with it.
The mandate as an punitive incentive has effectively failed. That said, I'll ask you the same questions as I did Chromagnus...how would you fix the mandate and make it stronger?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,523
54,349
136
The main thing against it is the "race to the bottom" argument but I haven't researched that enough to give a full opinion on whether or not that will happen. I was mainly pointing out that it's not a major fix. The upside of it is very limited and there is a potentially big downside. It's been talked about by a lot of politicians as something that is going to fix everything, and it won't.

Also, the ACA already included support for selling insurance across state lines. Basically no insurance company took them up on it. The primary obstacle isn't the government preventing it, it's companies having to build provider networks.

I find it funny that conservatives keep preaching selling across state lines as some sort of fix for insurance costs as if that's not already an available option. I think they genuinely don't know that it's something companies can already do and their leadership is too dishonest to let the matter drop.
 
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Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,676
5,238
136
No problem...people stereotype me all the time here. A little background...I grew up extremely poor and personally believe that healthcare is a fundamental human right...especially in a country as rich as ours. Hell, we can spend trillions on wars and nobody blinks an eye...yet when it comes to taking reasonable care of our people's healthcare needs they scream bloody murder. I conceptually get what Republicans are trying to do...I just want them to do it a lot better. Democrats have incredible leverage right now...and I hope they take full advantage of it.

Democrats can't use any leverage right now until this bill fails. The Rs are "hellbent" on passing this alone using a far less popular president, slimmer majorities than in 2009, and a misunderstanding of how Ocare was originally passed.

This delusion must be broken before change of direction can be made.

Also impeding this is that the GOP already set a coup against their last leader who was "too willing" to compromise. I don't see that they've let themselves any room to maneuver.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,523
54,349
136
The mandate as an punitive incentive has effectively failed.

Can you provide empirical research that shows this from a nonpartisan source?

That said, I'll ask you the same questions as I did Chromagnus...how would you fix the mandate and make it stronger?

Yes, the mandate should be made stronger. It's simple economics, as the cost of not having insurance and the cost of having insurance get closer together more people opt to simply have insurance.

The one part of the ACA that was genuinely stupidly designed was the structure for subsidies, which should encompass more people and gradually fade out as income increases instead of having a sharp cutoff. If you increased the percentage of people covered by subsidies and then jacked up the individual mandate we'd be in a pretty good place. I have zero confidence that Republicans will do this.
 
Feb 4, 2009
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I must be missing something here. Is there any legitimate upside to prohibiting sales across State lines?

No, it's currently allowed in some States but insurers in less strict States offer lower prices because they have to comply with less "stuff". They don't or can't comply with more "stuff" and build Hospital/Doctor networks and still be cheaper.
I'm sure someone has figured it out but it's not worth the effort to be a silver bullet.
 
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Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,676
5,238
136
The mandate as an punitive incentive has effectively failed. That said, I'll ask you the same questions as I did Chromagnus...how would you fix the mandate and make it stronger?

If you listen to credible economists, the penalties must be higher. This has been said since this was passed. Ds got cold feet, used a half measure to avoid some ugly immediate politics, and paid much worse long term. (echo?)


Counterintuitively, making the penalities higher will save everyone money. The pools haven't reached critical mass yet.
 
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Chromagnus

Senior member
Feb 28, 2017
255
111
86
How should the mandate be fixed? Raise the penalties even higher?

I don't know the exact answer to that as it's not my area of expertise. Modifying the 3:1 premium rule is a good start because it will lower the premiums of healthy people making it easier for them to afford. This intern will raise premiums on older people so there is definitely a trade off. Making the penalty higher would definitely lead to more people buying insurance but I don't know if it's the right move.

Another opinion is that health insurers need to provide additional benefits to healthy people to make them see value in having insurance aside from just avoiding the penalty. They already try to do a little bit of this with things like gym discounts but it would need to go much farther. This isn't really a policy issue that congress can address though. It's definitely an area where insurers can make improvements. I do know for a fact that some insurers are looking into these types of thing.

Getting everyone to buy insurance is a challenge but it is necessary for affordable prices. Even a "failed" mandate that is currently in the ACA is much better than no mandate at all.
 
Nov 30, 2006
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The main thing against it is the "race to the bottom" argument but I haven't researched that enough to give a full opinion on whether or not that will happen. I was mainly pointing out that it's not a major fix. The upside of it is very limited and there is a potentially big downside. It's been talked about by a lot of politicians as something that is going to fix everything, and it won't.
What's the big downside potential?
 
Nov 30, 2006
15,456
389
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If you listen to credible economists, the penalties must be higher. This has been said since this was passed. Ds got cold feet, used a half measure to avoid some ugly immediate politics, and paid much worse long term. (echo?)


Counterintuitively, making the penalities higher will save everyone money. The pools haven't reached critical mass yet.
It's time to face the cold harsh reality that increases in the punitive mandate will NEVER happen outside of what has already been spelled out in ACA. Now what?
 

Sea Ray

Golden Member
May 30, 2013
1,459
31
91
Get a real job. That's what Republicans will tell you.

Many believe health care isn't your right, opt out and pay the fine.

Don't count on something to bring more insurance companies back to you, or for it to be cheaper.

Medicare for all works for me. This nonsense has gone on long enough in our country.

We're you self employed pre aca?

https://www.ehealthinsurance.com/ohio-health-insurance

Yes, I've been self employed my whole life. I've never received healthcare from an employer. I wish you really believed what I bolded above. If you really did, you wouldn't be worried about people losing Medicaid or subsidies by repealing Obamacare.
 

Sea Ray

Golden Member
May 30, 2013
1,459
31
91
Insurers are already allowed to sell insurance across state lines.

How is it that you have so many posts in this thread and yet you are so fucking ignorant?


Its obvious what you want and that's cheap health care that you don't want to have to pay for. That is unless you expect us to believe that you want a health care plan that's cheap but doesn't cover shit. Kind of pointless, isn't it?

So selling across state lines is just a line fed to us by politicians and you're the smartest guy in the room?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,523
54,349
136
It's time to face the cold harsh reality that increases in the punitive mandate will NEVER happen outside of what has already been spelled out in ACA. Now what?

That sounds like a problem for the Republicans then. If they aren't willing to take easy and obvious steps to make the current law work better that's on them. It's not up to us to figure out how to compensate for their intransigence and inability to craft an effective health care bill that's compatible with their ideology.
 
Nov 30, 2006
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That sounds like a problem for the Republicans then. If they aren't willing to take easy and obvious steps to make the current law work better that's on them. It's not up to us to figure out how to compensate for their intransigence and inability to craft an effective health care bill that's compatible with their ideology.
And here we have the bubble-minded "justification" and blame for what is ultimately to be the likely outcome....nothing that effectively helps to improve the healthcare problems for the American people. We've now become so entrenched and ideologically perverse that bipartisan efforts are no longer a considered to be reasonable solution.
 

Chromagnus

Senior member
Feb 28, 2017
255
111
86
What's the big downside potential?

The race to the bottom is basically the theory that all plans will become shitty. If insurance company is based in state X that has little to no regulation they can sell plans very cheaply that cover almost nothing. If they sell this plan in state Y, where insurers are subject to higher levels of regulation, they will be the cheapest plans by default and a lot of people will buy them. Most people don't understand health insurance and price is a major factor. In order to compete most insurance will have to lower their prices to compete with the bad regulation in state X. This will ultimately lead to everyone having really bad insurance that doesn't cover much of anything. That's why it's called the race to the bottom.

The only people that won't choose the super cheap plans are people that know that they need more expensive things covered. If only high cost people are signing up for more expensive plans this will continue to push the costs even higher. This concept is called adverse selection, if all of the high cost people migrate to one or two plans the cost will keep rising until no one can afford it which will lead the plans to go out of business and not be offered.

For health insurance to be affordable you need a mix of low and high cost individuals in a plan.

I'm not saying that this is what would happen if companies are allowed to sell across state lines, you could put in measures to protect against this (more regulations), but it is a possibility.
 
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