GTX 580 being phased out.

[Arachnotronic]

If the GTX 580 is getting phased out, could that mean high end Kepler will come out around Tahiti's time frame? If so...I'll hang onto my 5450 for a while...

 

[tviceman]

If the GTX 580 is getting phased out, could that mean high end Kepler will come out around Tahiti's time frame? If so...I'll hang onto my 5450 for a while...

I'm guessing AMD's Tahiti will have a 6 week head start over Kepler. There are road maps floating around that shows a high end Kepler part not coming out until the end 2012, but I believe those road maps are either false, OR, aren't revealing the full nature and performance of Nvidia's lineup. In my opinion, there is too much with that road map that does not make sense unless Nvidia decided to change their product release strategy that they have stuck to over the course of the last several years.

But, even as much of Tahiti's release and performance is still unknown, Kepler is an even more unknown quantity. So in other words, who knows.

 

[tviceman]

I am unsure why you have a hard time believing they make a profit of around 40$ for each of a mainstream mid market product TBH. It is about volume.

Have you seen Nvidia's gross margins lately? 51.7% last quarter. That's a pretty large profit over the cost of goods sold.

 

[ocre]

I'm guessing AMD's Tahiti will have a 6 week head start over Kepler. There are road maps floating around that shows a high end Kepler part not coming out until the end 2012, but I believe those road maps are either false, OR, aren't revealing the full nature and performance of Nvidia's lineup. In my opinion, there is too much with that road map that does not make sense unless Nvidia decided to change their product release strategy that they have stuck to over the course of the last several years.

But, even as much of Tahiti's release and performance is still unknown, Kepler is an even more unknown quantity. So in other words, who knows.

well first off the leak doesnt have the gk100. I cannot see them dropping the gk100. Why would they? Also the leak was for OEMs, i heard. We all have seen, Nvidia has special OEM skewed deviated cards that differs from their retail line up. Last, its a funny looking piece of work which i consider very odd on many fronts. I dont have much faith in it at all.

 

[3DVagabond]

560 Ti 448's are binned 580s. It's a way to decrease the "cost" on the 580.

That's one way to look at it. However, you can't decrease the cost of GTX580 by selling a GF110 chip and make no $ on it, correct?

Actually, Intel17 is absolutely correct. Just to use some simple numbers let's say they get 100 GF110's from a wafer and the wafer costs $5000. Now, let's just say that 50 are perfect and can run 580's. 25 can run as 570's and 10 can run as 560 ti (448)'s. 15 are buggered and end up as key chains.

They need to sell that wafer for $7500 to cover costs (There's more expenses than just the cost of the wafer.). Anything more than that is pure profit. Let's say they can get $125 ea for the 580's and $85 ea for the 570's. That grosses them $8375. They've made $875. If they sell the 560 ti (448) for $45 ea. and the key chain chips for $10 ea. that's an additional $600 clear, 32% of their profit, even though they are actually selling the 2 lowest bin chips below cost. They would lose their butts if they had to sell them all at 560 ti (448) prices.

Obviously, I don't have the real costs and expenses figures. This is just to show as an example.

 

[boxleitnerb]

Nvidia and AMD buy the VRAM in volume and sell it to the AIBs in a kit with their GPUs. If there are also other components included in the kit, I don't know.

Here is a component price analysis from Mercury Research for some older cards:


The largest GPU ever built costs "only" 90 bucks. Looks like the GPU selling price is around 25-30% of the MRSP of the card. No way Nvidia is making significantly more than 50 bucks for a fully activated GF110. However, they compensate this with their Quadro/Tesla products. Not all GF110 GPUs are sold in consumer graphics cards. Without that market segment, their profitability would be as low as AMDs GPU division.

 

[ocre]

this news is interesting. Add this to the 560 448 launch and its even more so. Nvidia already had an outlet for gf110 rejects. the oem 560s. Also most of these 448 560 seem to overclock really well, its interesting. What if the 560 448 was to get rid off the gf110 stock real fast like.

This would put 28nm Nvidia cards out much sooner than many think. I would guess, (late) January-Feb. If its just only guess. i could be dreaming wildly, but i think something is up. I still am waiting to see about a fermi chip wit some kepler functions. I heard of it and its not a full kepler, but a stepped up fermi. I am sure it will show up (i trust what i have heard), but i have no idea what it will be. I am waiting to see what this GPU turns out to be. It would be crazy if its a desktop card and this is why the gf110s seem to be phasing out.

As far as the 200 series phasing out when cypress showed up???

the 500 series showed up and you could still buy gtx2xx cards. They were available for a very long time after cypress. Charlie D started some silly rumors. If ppl are gonna bring up that, they need to remember what the whole thing was about. It was attached to a BS propaganda campaign claiming nvidia was leaving the performance GPU market completely and they already started phasing out (EOLed) the gtx260s and up. But it was completely a lie! PPL forget important parts wjere a lot of stuff comes from.

 

[tviceman]

well first off the leak doesnt have the gk100. I cannot see them dropping the gk100. Why would they?

Which is one of the reasons why I believe that leaked road map is a load of crap. Nvidia has always led a new generation of GPU's with their highest end sku first. ALWAYS. To change now would be a first for them.

Also, Fermi was 6 months late. Fermi's time table did not affect Kepler development. Therefore, Kepler would be coming out more than 36 months after Fermi should have been out. 3 years? Not likely. AMD releases 3 new high end architectures with 2.5 years, but Nvidia can't follow up Fermi with one new architecture in the same or less time?

ALSO - and this is by far what I consider to be the easiest way to debunk that road map, the road map shows a dual GK104 solution as Nvidia's temporariy high end card. No graphics company has ever released a mid-range dual GPU solution. It would destroy their own high end card sales. Two gtx560's can easily keep up with and beat a gtx580 in most circumstances - which is exactly why Nvidia doesn't make a dual card solution based on two gtx560's.

So, in my opinion, that road map is crap. GK100 is coming out sooner than late 2012.

 

[Arzachel]

This would put 28nm Nvidia cards out much sooner than many think. I would guess, (late) January-Feb. If its just only guess. i could be dreaming wildly, but i think something is up. I still am waiting to see about a fermi chip wit some kepler functions. I heard of it and its not a full kepler, but a stepped up fermi. I am sure it will show up (i trust what i have heard), but i have no idea what it will be. I am waiting to see what this GPU turns out to be. It would be crazy if its a desktop card and this is why the gf110s seem to be phasing out.

I'm guessing AMD's Tahiti will have a 6 week head start over Kepler. There are road maps floating around that shows a high end Kepler part not coming out until the end 2012, but I believe those road maps are either false, OR, aren't revealing the full nature and performance of Nvidia's lineup. In my opinion, there is too much with that road map that does not make sense unless Nvidia decided to change their product release strategy that they have stuck to over the course of the last several years.

Do both of you have anything to base your beliefs on or is it just a gut feeling? Because currently there is nothing that would suggest Nvidia having even tapped out anything other than low-end Kepler chips.

Also, as pointed out before in this thread, Nvidia discontinued their 2XX series even with Fermi nowhere near launch.

 

[amenx]

No graphics company has ever released a mid-range dual GPU solution. It would destroy their own high end card sales.

Huh? What about 4850x2, 6850x2 and 6870x2?

 

[96Firebird]

Huh? What about 4850x2, 6850x2 and 6870x2?

AMD didn't release those...

 

[ocre]

Do both of you have anything to base your beliefs on or is it just a gut feeling? Because currently there is nothing that would suggest Nvidia having even tapped out anything other than low-end Kepler chips.

Also, as pointed out before in this thread, Nvidia discontinued their 2XX series even with Fermi nowhere near launch.

Every series eventually sees the EOL...... but you can still buy new 2XX cards:

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16814125391

http://www.tigerdirect.com/applicati...572&CatId=3775


And they were highly available all the way up to and well past the gf100 launch. Nvidia did not EOL the chips prematurely. Those claims are BS. Of course they moved on past the 2XX series. But we see the last gtx 2XX cards making their way out of the market today.

As far as having anything to base, well its speculation. Thats pretty much all anyone has currently now. I dont know anything, just like anyone else. I do have a few interesting facts:

first the 580s seem to be phasing out.
2nd straight from the horses mouth,

""We are far better prepared for 28nm than we were for 40nm. Because we took it so much more seriously. We were successful on so many different nodes for so long that we all collectively, as an industry, forgot how hard it is. So, one of the things that we did this time around was to set up an entire organization that is dedicated to advanced nodes. We have had many, many tests chips run on 28nm, we have working silicon," - Jen-Hsun Huang

This was way back in august. but he didnt stop there:

"[Our experience with 28nm] is looking really good, it is looking much better than our experience with 40nm. It is just a comprehensive, across-the-board engagement between TSMC and ourselves making sure that we are ready for production ramp when the time comes. So I feel really good about 28nm"

source: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/...ell_Prepared_for_28nm_Process_Technology.html

So while many ppl will say its a PR stunt, i think he is being pretty straight forward. I think Nvidia would put millions on making them better prepared from embarrassing themselves again. I see no reason why you would expect them to flop and be so very late once again. They have lots of free cash, and they are extremely aggressive by nature. This is something that makes perfect sense for them to do and i believe the guy when he says boldly that they took the node shrink very seriously and are much better prepared.

Also i feel like the leaked road map is specious on so many levels. With no gk100, i see a big hole in it. There will be a gk100. Its not listed so where is it? i can speculate it will be here before the gk104, thats the way they have always done it, and i expect this once again.

Another fact is the gtx580. They pre hype on the delayed 480 actually bit them back. Nvidia has learned from their mistakes. And they no how to keep a secret. The GTX580 came out of nowhere and was a blinding shine of glory. The unexpected surprise of the GPU proved to be an extremely clever tactic. Its success was a landmark move and i expect more of these out of nowhere surprises from Nvidia. It worked so well before, i would think them to be a fool not to continue with this kind of actions.

From these, i can speculate that perhaps things may pan out a little different than the majority expect. No matter what, i cannot see nvidia having no hig end cards till 2013. Thats the dumbest thing i could every think possible. I do see them after a yr have a new flagship gk112 or whatever in 2013. but that will be the 2013 flagship. i fully expect a gk100, enthusiast GPU coming way before 2013.

If you think nvidia will skip the performance crown for an entire yr on purpose, as a planned roadmap, i just dont know what to say....

edit:
oh and lastly, when nvidia was approached about the leaked roadmap, they had this to say:

"our transition to 28nm is going better than 40nm, and yields are better than our original plan."
They didnt say yields are fine or they are okay, they said "better" than they originally planned. I always look for clues, and maybe its nothing. But......


Nvidia has wayy to much riding on their GPUs. They cannot sit back and wait. tesla especially. Nvidia has to be extremely aggressive or they arent gonna survive. there is wayy to much on the line. They already know this.

 

[The Boston Dangler]

The thing I find odd on Newegg is it lists the GTX 580s as "Sold Out" and not as "Price XXX.xx" with the Autonotify when in stock button.

exactly. they're gone.

they have been reset to price with auto-notify, but they're not coming back.

 

[Rifter]

I emailed Zotac wanting to know if they plan on having any GTX 580 being shipped to retailers. They said that all GTX 580 cards have been discontinued. That all cards in stock are the last remaining ones you will find.

They did not say it was Zotac or Nvidia choice, but seems kind of odd.

Why would they discontinue Nvidia high end card?

Even retailers that show them in stock, after you place order you get email saying 3-4 week wait, then a few days latter i get email saying order is canceled. lol

Anyone know whats going on?

Zotac is a cheap Korean company. They cant compete with EVGA and ASUS and GIGABYTE so they discontinue and stop makin em, to save their money for the 6xx,

This is what you get for going with a retarded company as your video card,,, you cant SLI now,, if you hadnt been cheap and got a good vendor,, you could have SLI now,, hmmmm thx :awe:

Companies like EVGA and ASUS and GIGABYTE will not phase out the 580 GTX ,,,,, thx gl

WTF

 

[Arachnotronic]

they have been reset to price with auto-notify, but they're not coming back.

Yeah. Unfortunate 'cause the GTX 580 is easily my favorite video card of all time, but it must mean that they've stopped making the GF110 chips and are now focused on just selling off the 580 rejects while they can still fetch coin for them.

 

[AdamK47]

I really do hope nVidia releases a new lineup soon. My three Evga GTX 580s are running great now, but I'm always looking forward to an upgrade. The #1 thing on my wishlist would be reduced power consumption and heat. Even if they just shrunk GF110 down to 28nm I would be happy.

BTW - My local Micro Center has 10+ (they don't tell you the exact number) of Amp edition Zotac GTX 580s for $429 after $30 MIR. In-store pickup only.

 

[mattdallastx]

Did anyone even mention the 590 once during this entire thread?????

___________
COOLER MASTER HAF X RC-942-KKN1 Full Tower Computer Case
CORSAIR H70 Core High Performance Liquid CPU Cooler
Intel Core i7-980X Extreme Edition Gulftown 3.46GHz LGA 1366 Six-Core Desktop Processor
CORSAIR DOMINATOR GT 24GB (6 x 4GB) 240-Pin DDR3 SDRAM DDR3 2000 (PC3 16000) memory
CORSAIR Pro Series Gold AX1200 watt power supply SLI Certified 80 PLUS GOLD Certified
ASUS Rampage III Extreme LGA 1366 Intel X58 SATA 6Gb/s USB 3.0 ATX Intel Motherboard
LG Black Blu-ray Drive
(2)EVGA SuperClocked 015-P3-1582-TR GeForce GTX 580 (Fermi) 1536MB in SLI (Accelero XTREME Plus aftermarket coolers)
Crucial 256gb SSD sata III 6gb/sec
Western Digital Caviar Black 1.5 gb sata III 6gb/sec
(2) Western Digital Caviar Blue 500gb - striped RAID
Microsoft Windows 7 Pro

 

[QuantumPion]

My bet is on a GTX 585 with slightly higher clocks and more VRAM to hold people over for the holiday season.

 

[RussianSensation]

Nvidia: Analyst Expects Difficult Quarter

"On a positive note, lead times for the company's enthusiast product line (GTX570/580/590) are up, indicating strong demand"

It's possible that the current shortages of GTX580 cards are actually caused by the seasonal / holiday demand, and not an indication that GTX585 or Kepler are right around the corner.

 

[tviceman]

Do both of you have anything to base your beliefs on or is it just a gut feeling? Because currently there is nothing that would suggest Nvidia having even tapped out anything other than low-end Kepler chips.

Also, as pointed out before in this thread, Nvidia discontinued their 2XX series even with Fermi nowhere near launch.

It's my gut feeling and you are right on all accounts. I doubt Nvidia would want to commit the same mistake of discontinuing their current lineup to early again. Also, there was very little reliable info/chatter on the gtx580 until about two weeks before it came out.

 

[Ryan Smith]

Hi guys;

For what's its worth I asked both NVIDIA and Zotac about this when I saw this thread. Zotac's response is that they haven't heard anything about the 580 being EOL'd. NVIDIA's response was that Newegg listing them as Sold Out was a surprise to them, and they noted that by Sunday all the 580s that Newegg didn't have in stock were back to Out Of Stock status rather than Sold Out.

Although PR responses always need to be taken with a grain of salt, I for one don't believe the GTX 580 is being EOL'd right now. There will be a time and place for it as 28nm ramps up, but it isn't in 2011.

-Thanks
Ryan Smith

 

[96Firebird]

Too early to end the 580, even if 28nm is right around the corner.

Thanks Ryan. :thumbsup:

 

[The Boston Dangler]

My bet is on a GTX 585 with slightly higher clocks and more VRAM to hold people over for the holiday season.

eh, we're halfway thru december

 

[thilanliyan]

My bet is on a GTX 585 with slightly higher clocks and more VRAM to hold people over for the holiday season.

No we don't need more vram. We're all good with 256mb as long as you don't include texture packs.

OT, I would be surprised if nV came out with a 580 replacement this holiday season...maybe in time for 7K?

 

[tviceman]

Hi guys;

For what's its worth I asked both NVIDIA and Zotac about this when I saw this thread. Zotac's response is that they haven't heard anything about the 580 being EOL'd. NVIDIA's response was that Newegg listing them as Sold Out was a surprise to them, and they noted that by Sunday all the 580s that Newegg didn't have in stock were back to Out Of Stock status rather than Sold Out.

Although PR responses always need to be taken with a grain of salt, I for one don't believe the GTX 580 is being EOL'd right now. There will be a time and place for it as 28nm ramps up, but it isn't in 2011.

-Thanks
Ryan Smith

Thank you very much for the update!