Holy Social Security

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
Where'd you get all the money?



"The government. I didn't earn it, I don't need it, but if they miss one payment, I'll raise hell!"
 

WackyDan

Diamond Member
Jan 26, 2004
4,794
68
91
"Why he is doing this, is pretty simple. People love it (even 6 in 10 conservatives). It polls through the roof. And anyone telling you anything different is trying to sell you something, probably private accounts on Wall Street that would have been blown up with the stock market crash in 2008."

And anything you had in the market in 2008 has since rebounded and much much more. I'd much rather have SS partially privatized over the course of my 40 working years then the way it is structured now.

The people that protest privatization don't understand investing at all.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
6,172
2,440
136
"Why he is doing this, is pretty simple. People love it (even 6 in 10 conservatives). It polls through the roof. And anyone telling you anything different is trying to sell you something, probably private accounts on Wall Street that would have been blown up with the stock market crash in 2008."

And anything you had in the market in 2008 has since rebounded and much much more. I'd much rather have SS partially privatized over the course of my 40 working years then the way it is structured now.

The people that protest privatization don't understand investing at all.

Same here my 401k has fully recovered and then some since 2008. My 5 year rate of return is currently at 14.5%, not bad.
 

Exterous

Super Moderator
Jun 20, 2006
20,557
3,728
126
The people that protest privatization don't understand investing at all.

Actually I don't think you understand anything about a very important part of investing and saving: human emotion. Now it shouldn't be a as much of a part of these as it is but to ignore it is to be completely dishonest about the environment in which you invest and save

While proposals vary most contain two provisions: Self directed investing and program directed investing towards a ROI goal which may even be guaranteed

I am completely against privatizing because of this. SS is a safety net and as such it should be managed more carefully than a great many people are willing to treat it. If you believe in the Efficient Market then you already know that higher returns are gained for the taking of risk. I prefer my safety net to have minimal risk

For the self directed portion all you need to do is look at stories like GT and Sapphire glass to see that greed, ignorance and herd mentality\group think can destroy people's entire retirement savings over the weekend. There are literally millions of Americans who bought at the top in 2007, sold at the bottom in 2008\09 and didn't buy back in until 2013+. Its one of the big reasons middle class wealth has lagged.

Now you can say that they should have known better and are stupid for putting all their eggs in a basket like that or panicking and pulling their money out at the bottom and I agree. However - this is a safety net and if enough people lose their net it will become your problem

Programs with guaranteed returns also have a bit of a problem when managed by politicians and popular opinion. Pensions and their creeping upwards return promises provide numerous examples of failure, not to mention many notable cases of fraud costing taxpayers hundreds of millions

And, of course, there is the part where it only takes one or two very easy changes to SS to fix the entire system....
 

Exterous

Super Moderator
Jun 20, 2006
20,557
3,728
126
Some politicians keep forgetting the first commandment. "Thou shall not mess with Social Security"! All the old people vote.

This is unfortunate. It is important that we discuss and fix SS but responses like this make me worry that the can just gets kicked down the road until a much more painful solution is applied.

Even more concerning than that is this doesn't even address the far larger elephant in the room: Medicare\Medicaid. If we can't fix the relatively easy to fix SS then how are we going to handle those two?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,541
54,403
136
This is unfortunate. It is important that we discuss and fix SS but responses like this make me worry that the can just gets kicked down the road until a much more painful solution is applied.

Even more concerning than that is this doesn't even address the far larger elephant in the room: Medicare\Medicaid. If we can't fix the relatively easy to fix SS then how are we going to handle those two?

What do you think we need to do to 'fix' Social Security?

Also, the ACA is an effort to handle Medicare and Medicaid. If you reign in health care cost inflation, the Medicare/Medicaid problem goes away fast.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,267
126
What do you think we need to do to 'fix' Social Security?

Also, the ACA is an effort to handle Medicare and Medicaid. If you reign in health care cost inflation, the Medicare/Medicaid problem goes away fast.

Yeah about that inflation, medicare D plans are going to reimburse below acquisition costs. That means that eventually even loss leader operations will have to stop and everyone else will be gone. Once you kill the provider field, then what?
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,575
5,979
136
just remove the cap on social security tax. boom, now it will be OK until almost the year 2100.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,541
54,403
136
Yeah about that inflation, medicare D plans are going to reimburse below acquisition costs. That means that eventually even loss leader operations will have to stop and everyone else will be gone. Once you kill the provider field, then what?

If you aren't making money on Medicare customers don't accept Medicare. Problem solved.

But yes, health care inflation has been going way down since the passage of the ACA. It's something we should all be happy about.
 

bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
1,215
126
What do you think we need to do to 'fix' Social Security?

Also, the ACA is an effort to handle Medicare and Medicaid. If you reign in health care cost inflation, the Medicare/Medicaid problem goes away fast.


Raise the retirement age to 72. After that, tie the retirement age to average life expectancy. Problem solved. Real fucking simple.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,541
54,403
136
Bullshit. There were plenty of jobs that one could do without having to pay social security. I call that voluntary.

So by that logic it's still voluntary. Work as a waiter and you'll pay almost nothing into social security. Problem solved!

It was never intended to be voluntary. This is a simple fact. Do with that information what you will.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,541
54,403
136
Raise the retirement age to 72. After that, tie the retirement age to average life expectancy. Problem solved. Real fucking simple.

This is a terrible idea. Life expectancy has been increasing for wealthy people, not for the poor that Social Security is designed to help. Why would you cut poor people's benefits because rich people are living longer? I thought you were all about helping the poor?
 

xBiffx

Diamond Member
Aug 22, 2011
8,232
2
0
So by that logic it's still voluntary. Work as a waiter and you'll pay almost nothing into social security. Problem solved!

It was never intended to be voluntary. This is a simple fact. Do with that information what you will.

Almost nothing, isn't nothing. Herp derp.

I could have worked for a company that provided a pension back then and not had to worry about Social Security. I could have been making gobs of money doing so and not handicapped my income so as to avoid paying some into SS.

It was intended to give those who didn't have access to a pension/retirement a means to save for those things. It was intended to serve only those people. Do with that information what you will.
 

Exterous

Super Moderator
Jun 20, 2006
20,557
3,728
126
What do you think we need to do to 'fix' Social Security?

Personally I would prefer a gradual increase in the eligibility date. Something like a 5 year buffer and then increase it 1 year every 3 years before tying it to life expectancy of those who reach 21 years of age. Combine this with a complete removal of the SS cap (taxes and disbursements) and I think this provides a viable really long term proposal that can shift with life expectancy.

Alternatively you could remove the cap and continue to cap disbursements (Last I looked the SSA noted just removing the cap was not enough). I view this as a less attractive option than the first suggestion but it would be better than doing nothing.

Also, the ACA is an effort to handle Medicare and Medicaid. If you reign in health care cost inflation, the Medicare/Medicaid problem goes away fast.

Sure its an effort and the increase will hopefully continue at this slower pace but the CBO still projects the costs to increase in relation to GDP over the next 40 years or so. I don't know if the problem goes away fast even if you reign in the overall cost inflation given the widening gap regarding Long Term Care. Costs which are increasing faster than inflation or even healthcare inflation and insurance rates are soaring. With costs rising and enrollment in LTCI falling Medicaid will eventually pay out to cover these. How well projections will be able to capture this given the numerous variables and 'what-ifs' I don't know
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,541
54,403
136
Almost nothing, isn't nothing. Herp derp.

I could have worked for a company that provided a pension back then and not had to worry about Social Security. I could have been making gobs of money doing so and not handicapping my income so as to avoid paying some into SS.

It was intended to give those who didn't have access to a pension/retirement a means to save for those things. It was intended to serve only those people. Do with that information what you will.

False.

In fact its original definitions of covered employment tended to be exactly those who had such things. The jobs that were dominated by women and minorities (who almost never had such retirement benefits) were intentionally left out. So really, it was originally made to be the exact opposite.

Someone's been reading their crazy uncle's chain emails, haha. You said something wrong about Social Security. Live with it.
 

Exterous

Super Moderator
Jun 20, 2006
20,557
3,728
126
This is a terrible idea. Life expectancy has been increasing for wealthy people, not for the poor that Social Security is designed to help. Why would you cut poor people's benefits because rich people are living longer? I thought you were all about helping the poor?

Do you have anything to show that the difference in in life expectancy between rich and poor for those that attain adulthood is greater than it was in 1935? Overall that measure of life expectancy hasn't changed enough that I would think there would be a significant difference and it certainly seems like many more are reaching 65:

http://www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,541
54,403
136
Personally I would prefer a gradual increase in the eligibility date. Something like a 5 year buffer and then increase it 1 year every 3 years before tying it to life expectancy of those who reach 21 years of age. Combine this with a complete removal of the SS cap (taxes and disbursements) and I think this provides a viable really long term proposal that can shift with life expectancy.

As I mentioned earlier, those who Social Security is most important to aren't actually seeing increases in their life expectancy. What this would be doing is hurting the people who need Social Security because the people who don't need it are living longer. That seems like a bad idea, no?

Alternatively you could remove the cap and continue to cap disbursements (Last I looked the SSA noted just removing the cap was not enough). I view this as a less attractive option than the first suggestion but it would be better than doing nothing.

Removing the cap should definitely happen, I agree.

Sure its an effort and the increase will hopefully continue at this slower pace but the CBO still projects the costs to increase in relation to GDP over the next 40 years or so. I don't know if the problem goes away fast even if you reign in the overall cost inflation given the widening gap regarding Long Term Care. Costs which are increasing faster than inflation or even healthcare inflation and insurance rates are soaring. With costs rising and enrollment in LTCI falling Medicaid will eventually pay out to cover these. How well projections will be able to capture this given the numerous variables and 'what-ifs' I don't know

Costs will definitely increase faster than health care inflation because there are simply a greater proportion of Americans who qualify. I'm highly skeptical of 40 year projections because... well... they are 40 years out.

Look how wrong even our short term projections have been:



This makes me very hopeful for the future.
 

Exterous

Super Moderator
Jun 20, 2006
20,557
3,728
126
As I mentioned earlier, those who Social Security is most important to aren't actually seeing increases in their life expectancy. What this would be doing is hurting the people who need Social Security because the people who don't need it are living longer. That seems like a bad idea, no?

Given that a far higher percentage of the population now lives to collect SS your statement seems at odds with the SSA's data - unless the 20% increase since 1940 is only the wealthy...
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,541
54,403
136
Do you have anything to show that the difference in in life expectancy between rich and poor for those that attain adulthood is greater than it was in 1935? Overall that measure of life expectancy hasn't changed enough that I would think there would be a significant difference and it certainly seems like many more are reaching 65:

http://www.ssa.gov/history/lifeexpect.html

I do! Look at chart 3. Gains in life expectancy have gone overwhelmingly to wealthier people. Individuals in the top economic half have seen an increase of approximately 6 years of life while those in the bottom half have seen an increase of 1.

http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/workingpapers/wp108.html
 
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