I think AMD is about 2 years behind intel. However as process node shrinks yield less improvements per node shrink, I think AMD will eventually catch up. However I think intel will remain ahead of AMD on node development and therefore cost per die, and thus will maintains it's margins.
I think AMD needs to try to skip half a node to catch up. IE, it going to 20nm then maybe to 12nm, while intel hits 14nm and 10nm node, 8nm node.
But does anybody think there will be huge power savings on a 12 vs 8 nm node? Increased leakage will be a huge problem.
Eventually I see multiple designs on a single node until the next can be perfected, thus whoever has the best new ideas to improve IPC or clockspeeds or cooling will be on top. Cooling will become immensely important at 14nm and below. Who cares if IPC is better, if the better cooling tech lets you run at a higher frequency for longer without excess heat buildup or throttling.
I see a tick, tock, tock (nodeshrink), tick tock tock (nodeshink) timeline coming. EUV isn't coming soon, and I don't think it will ever be viable due to high energy electrons passing through materials, or generating secondary electrons. I think a Ar2* laser (126nm) and double patterning would work better than the tripple or quad patterning needed from 193nm, but the tech for Ar2* lasers stopped due to work on EUV (failUV more like it, I said it first!!! quote me!!!). But i am getting off topic.
Basically AMD needs to survive and it will eventually catch up as at some point node shrinks will stop then AMD can catch up. But AMD really needs to add the uOP cache intel has.