Hurricane computer models

[The Boston Dangler]

maybe obama could put his secret underwater demolitions to good use this time and take out that storm

 

[dmcowen674]

My sister has a one year old and it's her first year in the Florida panhandle, Pensacola specifically. She's a bit anxious about it. Looks like a damn near direct hit (although a bit east) of her...but still a solid shot of the hardest part of it.

Weather guys gave up on the westward trek to Texas.

It's going straight up to the Panhandle like I said a couple of days ago.

6-24-2012 4PM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/242034.shtml?

000 WTNT44 KNHC 242034 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012 THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARD SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEW TWIST OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN FORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO... NOW HAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY...THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. DEBBY IS A SPRAWLING SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A CURVED BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT BECAUSE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATER...THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND THE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 28.4N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 28.7N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 29.0N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 29.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 30.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA

 

[Red Squirrel]

Another reason I'm glad to be in Canada. I get to keep my house every year. I don't know how people in Florida manage to go through this year after year. I'm sure it gets expensive.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Weather guys gave up on the westward trek to Texas.

It's going straight up to the Panhandle like I said a couple of days ago.

That's merely their current best guess and so far their tracks haven't been very spot on. Personally, I don't see it going straight up the panhandle. If you look at the current satellite a high pressure ridge is settling in to the west of the storm and a trough is rushing down from the north. They will tend to prevent any western movement and hinder any move straight to the north. imo, it will make landfall in the panhandle east of Panama City and move NE towards Jacksonville/Savanna.

 

[dmcowen674]

Weather guys gave up on the westward trek to Texas.

It's going straight up to the Panhandle like I said a couple of days ago.

6-24-2012 4PM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/242034.shtml?

000 WTNT44 KNHC 242034 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012 THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARD SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEW TWIST OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN FORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO... NOW HAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN MARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT...BUT NOT COMPLETELY...THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. DEBBY IS A SPRAWLING SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A CURVED BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT BECAUSE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATER...THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND THE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 28.4N 85.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 28.7N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 29.0N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 29.0N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 29.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 30.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 30.5N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA

I've asked NHC if there is a post mortem on the forecast that was 180 degrees off.