IDC says fourth-quarter PC shipments fell 10.6% year-on-year

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Maxima1

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2013
3,519
756
146
They're both very much one in the same. One (PC stagnation) is just happening before the other. Intel doesn't understand how screwed they are. They'll probably survive, but it'll be a struggle (in the long run, not anytime soon -- they have credit, assets, and cash reserves to burn).

Uh, what? You've been on infowars lately?
 

jones377

Senior member
May 2, 2004
451
47
91
Uh, what? You've been on infowars lately?

He's probably just being overly dramatic. But the fact remains that the PC market is shrinking and Intel's push into mobile hasn't gone as planned. I also think ARM will win the IoT emerging market as Intel products are a joke by comparison. By the time they become good the market will already be entrenched by ARM just like mobiles.

On the other hand the Datacenter market is growing and Intel has a VERY strong product lineup there. For example Intel preempted the various ARM partners to low-power 64-bit SOCs by a year or more. So overall Intel will do fine OMHO.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,867
336
126
They're both very much one in the same. One (PC stagnation) is just happening before the other. Intel doesn't understand how screwed they are. They'll probably survive, but it'll be a struggle (in the long run, not anytime soon -- they have credit, assets, and cash reserves to burn).

Apparently Intel intentionally no longer wants to be a PC company:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/...-pc-internet-of-things-data-centers/78740404/

Intel is becoming a post-PC company

Intel wants to make clear it's not as dependent on the waning PC market, showcasing with some fanfare how its technology can make shoes, drones, even skateboards smarter.

Its results, out late Thursday, will likely reflect some of those strides. But strength from areas outside core PC chips are likely to come from supplying data centers, a market it entered via a large acquisition, than the flashier Internet of Things arena.

[...]
Intel has also been pushing hard into the Internet of Things, small, cheap sensors that are capable of sending the data they gather. IoT is a hot area, though it’s unclear if it’s going to make money any time soon, said Moorhead.

“They’re investing early in the Internet of Things because they don’t want to get caught flat-footed again” as they were when they missed out on the mobile phone explosion, he said.

[...]
Intel at CES this year “was all about healthcare, health and wellness, creativity and gaming,” said Moorhead.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
You should read your own quote and link.


PC isn't a growth factor, tablet isn't a growth factor, consoles isn't a growth factor. And phones wont be either this year.

That means you have to do Server and IoT if you want to grow.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,742
5,374
136
Revenue wise, Intel didn't do that badly in 4Q, although it was due to higher prices:

Client Computing Group had revenue of $8.8B, down 1% with platform volumes down 16% and platform average selling prices up 17%. Desktop platform volumes were down 9% and desktop platform average selling prices were up 9%. Notebook platform volumes were down 10% and notebook platform average selling prices were up 6%. Tablet volumes were down 33% and average selling prices were up significantly .

Can't imagine this will last for long though.
 
Apr 30, 2015
131
10
81
April 2014, Intel reported $2 .8 billion earnings for 2014 Q1 PC group.
April 2015, Intel reported $1 .4 billion earnings in the combined PC + mobile group for 2015 Q1.
- This is a shortfall of $1 .4 billion earnings in a quarter.

July 2014, they reported $3.7 billion earnings for 2014 Q2 PC group.
July 2015, they reported $1 .6 billion earnings in the combined PC + mobile group for 2015 Q2.
- This is a shortfall of $2.1 billion earnings in a quarter.

October 2014, they reported $4.1 billion earnings for 2014 Q3 PC group.
October 2015, they reported $2.4 billion earnings in the combined PC + mobile group for 2015 Q3.
- This is a shortfall of $1.7 billion earnings in a quarter.

January 2015, they reported $4.0 billion earnings for 2015 Q4 PC group.
January 2016, they reported $2.7 billion earnings in the combined PC + mobile group for 2015 Q4.
- This is a shortfall of $1.3 billion earnings in a quarter.

2015 Mobile/PC group shortfall c.f 2014 PC profits:
Q1 = 1.4, Q2=2.1, Q3=1.7, Q4=1.3
Total shortfall = 6.5 billion USD.
If 4.2 billion is attributable to Mobile,as per 2014, then PC shortfall for 2015 is 2.3 billion.
If 3.2 billion is attributable to Mobile, then PC shortfall for 2015 is 3.3 billion USD.

In two or three years, at this rate, PCs will make no profit for them at all.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
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Intel is getting hammered this morning. Anyone know why?

If you remove the Altera revenue, Intel's forward guidance for Q1 missed consensus. People also probably weren't too happy that data center group delivered an anemic 11% growth y-o-y in 2015, once again missing the company's long-term 15% target.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
Part is also due to the continual slowdown in PC. And the transformation speed away from PC dependency.

AMD and NVidia tanks today for the same reason with currently 7½% and 5½% as well. While Intel is down 8½%.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,257
5,062
136
If you remove the Altera revenue, Intel's forward guidance for Q1 missed consensus. People also probably weren't too happy that data center group delivered an anemic 11% growth y-o-y in 2015, once again missing the company's long-term 15% target.

Any comment on the lack of modem news? I didn't see any indication that they have won a big contract in e.g. the iPhone 7, or the new compact iPhone (6C, or whatever it's called). Sounds like Intel's modems are losing out for another generation.
 
Mar 10, 2006
11,715
2,012
126
Any comment on the lack of modem news? I didn't see any indication that they have won a big contract in e.g. the iPhone 7, or the new compact iPhone (6C, or whatever it's called). Sounds like Intel's modems are losing out for another generation.

Yep...

Timothy Arcuri

Right. Okay. Got it. Then just last question, so on the mobile group, at the Investor Day you talked about another $800 million improvement this year in the losses. Is this still the target and maybe talk about the progress there and whether we could see any momentum for smartphone this year with 7360? Thanks a lot.

Brian Krzanich

It is absolutely still the target. That has not changed one bit. It is a little early in the year to talk about progress. I would tell you that we have a large percentage of $800 million, already I will call it planned out.

In other words, we have projects. We know what we need to do, introduce products, align which SKUs are coming and move products on to that, so I would say a large percentage of that is well-planned through the year, but it is throughout the year, so I cannot tell I have already get $200 million of it or something like that, not here in the second, third week of the year.

7360, it is out. It is sampling, the customers are going through their validations now at the systems, where they are building up systems and out testing them on networks and so forth. As far as the launches of those systems and the announcements, those are always up to our customers and we do not make sure that we are the ones announcing that.

Then what we have told you is that, what is even as important is that we are on a yearly cadence now of our modem technology and we are very confident on that as well for the next set of modems that comes out after the 7360.

Translation? Woefully behind Qualcomm if they are still just "sampling" the 7360. Qualcomm's X16 modem (14nm FinFET modem) will be available in customer devices by mid-2016.

I can't see how BK says with a straight face that he's "confident" in this rather underwhelming roadmap, but then again that's kind of been the case with this CEO since he took the job...over promise, under deliver (at least in mobile).

EDIT: also note that if they were expecting a big iPhone-related ramp, he'd have a lot more visibility this early in the year. The fact that he doesn't seem to says to me that there will be no Intel inside of an iPhone anytime soon.
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
Tech stocks depending on manufactoring will have it real hard in 2016 I guess. Smartphone makers are also starting to report bad news. Xiaomi 10% off target as a starter. And we known Apple is off by ~30% for Q1.

AMDs financials will be the 19th.
 

Burpo

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2013
4,223
473
126
Not just intel..

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/01/15/gone-stocks-rob-15t-investors-year/78845082/

S&P 500 STOCKS THAT DESTROYED THE MOST SHAREHOLDER WEALTH THIS YEAR

Company, Symbol, % lost YTD, $ market value erased YTD ($ billions)

Apple, AAPL, -8.8%, -$51.1

Amazon.com, AMZN, -15.6%, -$49.3

Alphabet, GOOGL, -8.6%, -$46.2

Microsoft, MSFT, -7.8%, -$34.4

JPMorgan Chase, JPM, -13.4%, -$32.7

Facebook, FB, -9.9%, -$29.4

Wells Fargo, WFC, -9.9%, -$27.5

Citigroup, C, -17.4%, -$26.9

General Electric, GE, -8.4%, -$24.6

Bank of America, BAC, -14%, -$24.5

Intel, INTC, -14%, -$24.5

Cisco Systems, CSCO, -11.8%, -$16.2

Home Depot, HD, -9.3%, -$15.6

Source: S&P Capital IQ, USA TODAY

Matt Krantz
 
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Madpacket

Platinum Member
Nov 15, 2005
2,068
326
126
You don't need scaremongering Infowars to tell you we're heading into a depression (actually worldwide we already there, it's just being hidden well). 2016 will be an interesting year. If you haven't yet I recommend you all watch "The Big Short". We're still trying to deal with the fallout from these ***holes.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_4
 

III-V

Senior member
Oct 12, 2014
678
1
41
Uh, what? You've been on infowars lately?
No, I get my news from the internet (Reddit), not that garbage cyanide-laced celebrity news that you get from the mainstream media. The establishment wants you to think everything is fine and dandy, so they can continually screw you over while you continually vote in those corrupt scumbags.

It's a rather basic economic principle -- when consumers have no money to spend, due to high income inequality -- they're not going to be able to buy as much stuff. Wages haven't increased in proportion to productivity since the 70s. Americans (the US is the economy that all other nations depend upon, although this is becoming less true as time goes on) are also working more hours than any point in time since labor statistics have been collected, so that means less free time for enjoying things like consumer electronics.

But no, just brush it off as a conspiracy theory. When millions are living paycheck to paycheck, they just can't afford to upgrade their desktop every year.

It's okay though. The "free market" will sort everything out.
He's probably just being overly dramatic. But the fact remains that the PC market is shrinking and Intel's push into mobile hasn't gone as planned. I also think ARM will win the IoT emerging market as Intel products are a joke by comparison. By the time they become good the market will already be entrenched by ARM just like mobiles.

On the other hand the Datacenter market is growing and Intel has a VERY strong product lineup there. For example Intel preempted the various ARM partners to low-power 64-bit SOCs by a year or more. So overall Intel will do fine OMHO.
The problem is not that I'm being overly dramatic -- it's that most people have under-reacting to the amount of garbage going on, and it'll soon be reaching a breaking point.

How soon is the question. It may be this year, or perhaps things will hold out for another 2-3. Baby boomers heading into retirement will have huge economic implications. Major policy changes could avert all of this, but since everyone is in denial, I doubt that will happen.

Until the market crashes, new policies are made, and as a result wealth is relatively well-distributed, PC sales won't be growing every quarter, but contracting. You'll find this to be the case with stronger markets as time goes on as well.
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
Agree, this is also why consumerism is dying.

The average Joe wont be able to afford much in the coming future. And this will kill technology development for pretty much everything.

And ECB will do even more QE in march and maybe -0.4%. Its Japan all over. Prepare to become poor. (Specially if you live in Europe).

Example of how Europe will turn out: (This is the reality in Japan with zerorates and QE.)


Remember how Canadians complain about technology prices? That's nothing compare to what is waiting.

Top20 semiconductor charts wont be needed anymore. Because there wont be anything close to 20 left.
 
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Techhog

Platinum Member
Sep 11, 2013
2,834
2
26
Agree, this is also why consumerism is dying.

The average Joe wont be able to afford much in the coming future. And this will kill technology development for pretty much everything.

And ECB will do even more QE in march and maybe -0.4%. Its Japan all over. Prepare to become poor. (Specially if you live in Europe).

Example of how Europe will turn out: (This is the reality in Japan with zerorates and QE.)


Remember how Canadians complain about technology prices? That's nothing compare to what is waiting.

Top20 semiconductor charts wont be needed anymore. Because there wont be anything close to 20 left.

And Intel reigns supreme, so everyone should ignore Zen or they'll lose their warranty 6 months later, right?
 

Maxima1

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2013
3,519
756
146
No, I get my news from the internet (Reddit), not that garbage cyanide-laced celebrity news that you get from the mainstream media. The establishment wants you to think everything is fine and dandy, so they can continually screw you over while you continually vote in those corrupt scumbags.

It's a rather basic economic principle -- when consumers have no money to spend, due to high income inequality -- they're not going to be able to buy as much stuff. Wages haven't increased in proportion to productivity since the 70s. Americans (the US is the economy that all other nations depend upon, although this is becoming less true as time goes on) are also working more hours than any point in time since labor statistics have been collected, so that means less free time for enjoying things like consumer electronics.

But no, just brush it off as a conspiracy theory. When millions are living paycheck to paycheck, they just can't afford to upgrade their desktop every year.

It's okay though. The "free market" will sort everything out.

lmao That was unexpected. I thought you were one of those austerity clowns.
 
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