News Intel 1Q23 Earnings

[A///]

my home and land value has gone up since times have gotten tough which has been a small blessing for me. hopefully it keeps going up so when I sell and retire in 5-6 years I'll do so with a small parachute. rental and food prices on the other hand are driving more to poverty in this economy. we waste an awful lot of food in this country before it hits the shopper's cart. shame we can't give away excess growth to those in need and must rely on those little stores where people can pick what they need and pay nothing or as much as they're comfortable with. public pantry is what they're called or food bank.

My understanding is that some of the design engineers did get sacked. It wasn't just marketing folks.

wouldn't this depend on the engineers associated with a generation?

 

[A///]

The Fed needs to get the general public to change their mindset on how money is spent. There needs to be pushback from consumers on the ever-increasing prices for goods that companies are continually doing in order to grow profit margins.

I'd happily accept a deeper recession and high unemployment if they could get that to happen.

Consumers are already not buying new PCs and components. Let's see how that plays out price-wise.

You said it brother. Who the hell is spending money now on luxuries like new tech if them putting food on the table is more important? if it's a young person who's single and spends most of their time in their computer room watching those japanese cartoons and pornography then them spending that kind of ludicrous money is normal and it won't impact them much as they'll survive on styrofoam noodles like instant ramen and other junk where as a family 3 or more requires actual sustenance. big jimmy's new 4090 he wants isn't as important as making sure his kids are fed and clothed and doesn't need to rely on his wife's income to keep the kids fed and clothed.

 

[A///]

I think all of these projections for H2 are also too optimistic.

this is what I thought myself based on the literature i'd read at the time. i saw an article calling this a soft recession even now but I'm not so sure. I'm no economist but there's nothing soft about the exorbitant price increases on everything. companies blamed the pandemic and now that we're past it they're blaming the economy. I'm beginning to think we're being fleeced.

 

[DrMrLordX]

wouldn't this depend on the engineers associated with a generation?

I would hope not, but that may be the case. You'd have to ask someone with more information and the freedom to speak on such matters (anyone who is being fired now, or has been laid off recently, likely must keep their silence due to some NDA or another).

 

[A///]

I would hope not, but that may be the case. You'd have to ask someone with more information and the freedom to speak on such matters (anyone who is being fired now, or has been laid off recently, likely must keep their silence due to some NDA or another).

hasn't stopped people leaking before. there's a handful of intel people on this forum. the chances of one or all of them being laid off is slim but there's hope elsewhere on the horizon. altho I was hinting at people tasked with hardware that came out 3-4 years ago and not the hybrid stuff.

 

[Exist50]

wouldn't this depend on the engineers associated with a generation?

From what I hear, the layoffs are at least strongly correlated to project. Like, they're going through the roadmap, canceling anything they think they can get away with (and maybe some they can't), and putting anyone specifically assigned to them into the layoff bucket. And then throw in some more blanket layoffs on top. Apparently they just announced new layoffs in their core engineering org as well, on top of the previous reports of layoffs in the business groups (which also include engineering teams).

It's a stupid way to do things, but add it to the long list of Intel management shooting themselves in the foot.

 

[A///]

From what I hear, the layoffs are at least strongly correlated to project. Like, they're going through the roadmap, canceling anything they think they can get away with (and maybe some they can't), and putting anyone specifically assigned to them into the layoff bucket. And then throw in some more blanket layoffs on top. Apparently they just announced new layoffs in their core engineering org as well, on top of the previous reports of layoffs in the business groups (which also include engineering teams).

It's a stupid way to do things, but add it to the long list of Intel management shooting themselves in the foot.

dunno imo it might be a good method for now while they maximise their dollar spend through capex including rd. getting rid of non important side projects is good unless it is like them killing off ventures that will be needed in the future which intel fumbled their way through. core engineering is where I was getting to earlier if it's people behind the skylake era who may contribute bad decisions especially if they have long tenure and respected in the org. old guards = ego and those need to evolve or be flushed. I still have confidence in pat over anyone else in recent history.

i think people need to remember that amd was in this position not long ago and it took time for them to slowly crawl back. no idea why people expect miracles from intel in a swift amount of time. "zomg intel is dead" and all that crap is the same junk I was reading a decade ago about AMD and look at em now.

 

[moinmoin]

old guards = ego and those need to evolve or be flushed.

Old guards were flushed before, and Pat was in the process of bringing them back.

no idea why people expect miracles from intel in a swift amount of time.

Intel's situation started looking questionable back in 2018, that's not swift, that's five years ago.

"zomg intel is dead" and all that crap is the same junk I was reading a decade ago about AMD and look at em now.

AMD did the big changes in 2012 and it took them until 2018 for that starting to become easily visible to anyone looking. That's six years.

Regarding Intel, do we wait until next year? Or do we only start counting when Pat came in and wait until 2027?

 

[turtile]

i think people need to remember that amd was in this position not long ago and it took time for them to slowly crawl back. no idea why people expect miracles from intel in a swift amount of time. "zomg intel is dead" and all that crap is the same junk I was reading a decade ago about AMD and look at em now.

AMD's situation was completely different. They were actually facing financial ruin. Intel kept its market share because of its dominance during this time. Then in 2020, the pandemic enabled it to make record profits and invest in even more manufacturing. It wasn't until the pandemic demand blew up to force Intel to become more streamlined.

 

[A///]

Old guards were flushed before, and Pat was in the process of bringing them back.

Pat was bringing back old guards that knew what they were doing. you don't see pat bringing back the bad ones.

Intel's situation started looking questionable back in 2018, that's not swift, that's five years ago.

looking questionable and being bad are not the same. intel's problems were 10nm. that is solved. skylake is in the past too. Intel's dc products are years late, they still have to deliver them. intel's current problems are getting their still late products out in time, reducing power usage and putting a gap between them and AMD which they are struggling to do on one or both fronts depending on what you're looking at.

Regarding Intel, do we wait until next year? Or do we only start counting when Pat came in and wait until 2027?

of course let's ignore meteor lake, arrow lake, bspd if it'll amount to anything viable, lunar lake, and the other lake products due. while some of these products weren't started before he came back recall your mentioning of AMD beginning in 2012 coincides with Lisa Su coming to AMD. If you have to ask you've answered your own dim question.

 

[Ajay]

of course let's ignore meteor lake, arrow lake, bspd if it'll amount to anything viable, lunar lake, and the other lake products due. while some of these products weren't started before he came back recall your mentioning of AMD beginning in 2012 coincides with Lisa Su coming to AMD. If you have to ask you've answered your own dim question.

Uh, 2014 for Lisa, and Rory paved the way by getting the company on a more sound financial pat. This included some painful but necessary layoffs. That’s how AMD became Lean.

 

[Exist50]

dunno imo it might be a good method for now while they maximise their dollar spend through capex including rd. getting rid of non important side projects is good unless it is like them killing off ventures that will be needed in the future which intel fumbled their way through

Cutting low ROI projects might be necessary, but it's cutting the engineers that concerns me. You can have good engineers working on bad projects, and that's a tremendous loss of talent at a time when Intel's engineering efforts are already suffering from years of attrition and layoffs.

I still have confidence in pat over anyone else in recent history.

Lol, not setting the bar very high there.

i think people need to remember that amd was in this position not long ago and it took time for them to slowly crawl back

I think the risk Intel runs is turning a 5 year turnaround into a 10 year turnaround, with the additional risk of a new CEO coming in and ruining things midway. Like, if they set their design teams back by 2 years, but manage to get the fab side in reasonable order, that will stabilize investor confidence and validate Gelsinger's direction, but the reality is that the design teams are paying the bills, and they're already behind there. It would spell very big long term issues if their AI and GPU efforts were stillborn, never mind the impact that layoffs in the server team are having...

 

[A///]

Uh, 2014 for Lisa, and Rory paved the way by getting the company on a more sound financial pat. This included some painful but necessary layoffs. That’s how AMD became Lean

president and ceo in 2014. she joined in 2012. it's on her profile page. either way your post only helps my argument so i will take the help.

 

[A///]

Cutting low ROI projects might be necessary, but it's cutting the engineers that concerns me. You can have good engineers working on bad projects, and that's a tremendous loss of talent at a time when Intel's engineering efforts are already suffering from years of attrition and layoffs.

That would be correct. when I got laid off a few times I witnessed that kind of brain drain both when the associated companies were doing bad or well. but do recall intel's had many layoffs during this down period and even when they were sky high. there has been dysfunction in the corporate part of the company forever it seems. intel's biggest meat cleaver was that guy from qualcomm who joined only to axe entire divisions over time. intel's best and brightest went to competitors after that or decided to retire.

Lol, not setting the bar very high there.

while pat's man of god schtick is weird and he messes up his wording "rear view mirror" incident and hall he seems focused on bringing the company to a stop and going back where they came from to reclaim their fame. I'd be pissing down my trouser leg if I were a board member or investor with more money and coke than brains but I know he means to do well and he's not going to get caught with his willy up some broad's backside.

I think the risk Intel runs is turning a 5 year turnaround into a 10 year turnaround, with the additional risk of a new CEO coming in and ruining things midway. Like, if they set their design teams back by 2 years, but manage to get the fab side in reasonable order, that will stabilize investor confidence and validate Gelsinger's direction, but the reality is that the design teams are paying the bills, and they're already behind there. It would spell very big long term issues if their AI and GPU efforts were stillborn, never mind the impact that layoffs in the server team are having...

gpu compute is going to be a hotter market than it already is now. until something comes along that does parallel work much faster it's here to stay. for ai I assume you mean the altera ip? I mentioned this briefly a couple weeks ago but amd disclosed a third party attempted to sit down with xilinx while they were involved with amd in their under the blankets deal before announcing their merger or acquisition of xilinx however you want to spell it out. if I had to guess any one company it would be nvidia or apple but my hunch is on nvidia. the hardware to accelerate ai will be on consumer level chips in the future, not anytime soon but several years from now and I think intel realized the writing is on the wall. amd has also had layoffs. nothing is safe in this economy mate.

 

[Exist50]

while pat's man of god schtick is weird and he messes up his wording "rear view mirror" incident and hall he seems focused on bringing the company to a stop and going back where they came from to reclaim their fame.

The old Intel folk seem to trust and respect Pat, so I can certainly believe he's better than than any CEO they've had since Grove...but is that enough? It's extremely rare to see a company of Intel's size and market position successfully undergo the kind of transformation it needs to.

gpu compute is going to be a hotter market than it already is now. until something comes along that does parallel work much faster it's here to stay. for ai I assume you mean the altera ip?

Intel is not using Altera IP for its AI efforts. On the consumer/inferencing side, they're primarily using Movidius IP. That's what Meteor Lake's VPU is using. On the datacenter side, it's Habana, in addition to Arc. It's the latter two in particular that're most in danger of missing the boat. They can't go halfway with their investment and expect to win anything vs Nvidia.

amd has also had layoffs

I'm not aware of any recent AMD layoffs.

 

[A///]

I'm not aware of any recent AMD layoffs.

Client bu, 5-10% in early april. amd layoffs are a lot silent compared to intel. much small company you need to know people who may talk about it. getting a new job after that won't be hard for those people.

The old Intel folk seem to trust and respect Pat, so I can certainly believe he's better than than any CEO they've had since Grove...but is that enough? It's extremely rare to see a company of Intel's size and market position successfully undergo the kind of transformation it needs to.

Barett was not bad. yeah pentium 4 was a hoser of a platform but under his guidance core was developed and pushed out. the next guy fumbled a lot of bad decisions. the best move of his reign was inking the c2d deal with apple, what came after was dropping the ball more than an armless human.

Intel is not using Altera IP for its AI efforts. On the consumer/inferencing side, they're primarily using Movidius IP. That's what Meteor Lake's VPU is using. On the datacenter side, it's Habana, in addition to Arc. It's the latter two in particular that're most in danger of missing the boat. They can't go halfway with their investment and expect to win anything vs Nvidia.

Thanks for the info. I'd seen movidius mentioned but assumed it was a licensed product. yes intel's dgpu efforts seem to not be in vain this time around and it's their 4th attempt or 3rd trying to breach the market. at this point and their expenditure cancellling arc would be a bad decision and cut a lot of brain powder. gpu compute is as said a big market in the dc and sicentific fields and yes they cannot half ass it and expect to be like nvidia. otherwise they'll split the leftovers with amd.

 

[Ajay]

president and ceo in 2014. she joined in 2012. it's on her profile page. either way your post only helps my argument so i will take the help.

Guess I don’t know which point you were making, as Lisa wasn’t a top decision maker in 2012-13.

 

[moinmoin]

looking questionable and being bad are not the same.

That was me being diplomatic. Intel main issue, execution, has been going on for ages and exacerbating gen for gen (starting with 22nm, very visible with 14nm, exploding with 10nm).

intel's problems were 10nm.

Alright, then everything is fine.

Intel's dc products are years late, they still have to deliver them.

Oh, more problems?

intel's current problems are getting their still late products out in time, reducing power usage and putting a gap between them and AMD which they are struggling to do on one or both fronts depending on what you're looking at.

Even more problems?

of course let's ignore meteor lake, arrow lake, bspd if it'll amount to anything viable, lunar lake, and the other lake products due.

I'll readily admit that Intel is excellent at (over) promising.

while some of these products weren't started before he came back recall your mentioning of AMD beginning in 2012 coincides with Lisa Su coming to AMD.

Look, from back in 2011 the only person still in the same role is Mark Papermaster as CTO. All other major roles at AMD were being newly filled in the subsequent years, with Lisa Su joining in late 2012 only being one of many. Her major influence after being appointed president and CEO in 2014 was strongly focusing AMD on what turned into Zen. But the restructuring, recruitment of new leadership and work on new projects that turned into Zen started under Rory Read and especially Papermaster. Those years, 2012-18 were marked by little financial flexibility as AMD, not having competitive products, was continually losing revenue streams and getting ever closer to bankruptcy.

The point comparable to AMD's major leadership restructuring 2012 is Intel's 2021 due to Pat bringing in his close staff like Greg Lavender as CTO and old workmates from more stable times at Intel. Intel under Pat still has to work out the long existing execution issues, still has to get through possible years of not-quite-competitive-enough products in many markets (chiefly servers), still has to be able to handle economic turbulences (Intel essentially turning back many of the changes from 2021 already in 22 and 23 is not exactly boosting the confidence no matter the macro environment).

Whenever somebody compares Intel's tbd comeback to AMD's comeback I always think of AMD's financially harsh uncompetitive years 2012-18. Intel had the chance to turn the ship around when they kept making record profits quarter by quarter. Intel had the chance to turn the ship around when the pandemic pushed the downward trending PC market to unexpected new highs instead. Intel botched both chances and is now facing a very tricky macro environment instead. So at this point Intel may well have to replay AMD's years of hurt.

 

[A///]

That was me being diplomatic. Intel main issue, execution, has been going on for ages and exacerbating gen for gen (starting with 22nm, very visible with 14nm, exploding with 10nm).


Alright, then everything is fine.


Oh, more problems?


Even more problems?


I'll readily admit that Intel is excellent at (over) promising.


Look, from back in 2011 the only person still in the same role is Mark Papermaster as CTO. All other major roles at AMD were being newly filled in the subsequent years, with Lisa Su joining in late 2012 only being one of many. Her major influence after being appointed president and CEO in 2014 was strongly focusing AMD on what turned into Zen. But the restructuring, recruitment of new leadership and work on new projects that turned into Zen started under Rory Read and especially Papermaster. Those years, 2012-18 were marked by little financial flexibility as AMD, not having competitive products, was continually losing revenue streams and getting ever closer to bankruptcy.

The point comparable to AMD's major leadership restructuring 2012 is Intel's 2021 due to Pat bringing in his close staff like Greg Lavender as CTO and old workmates from more stable times at Intel. Intel under Pat still has to work out the long existing execution issues, still has to get through possible years of not-quite-competitive-enough products in many markets (chiefly servers), still has to be able to handle economic turbulences (Intel essentially turning back many of the changes from 2021 already in 22 and 23 is not exactly boosting the confidence no matter the macro environment).

Whenever somebody compares Intel's tbd comeback to AMD's comeback I always think of AMD's financially harsh uncompetitive years 2012-18. Intel had the chance to turn the ship around when they kept making record profits quarter by quarter. Intel had the chance to turn the ship around when the pandemic pushed the downward trending PC market to unexpected new highs instead. Intel botched both chances and is now facing a very tricky macro environment instead. So at this point Intel may well have to replay AMD's years of hurt.

products being late due to your process being late is a compounding issue that'll hurt them until they can get their next few nodes up and running on time. intel had many chances to turn around but it's a big old org with too much bureaucracy. Keller's attitude going to AMD was it's my way or the highway he was there to get things going along with papermaster and the other one and cut the bullshit in their company tree. Intel folks were having none of that and Keller jumped the first chance he got after doing whatever work he could accomplish.

crap on intel as much as you want and I do the same, but I have more faith in "Gunslinger" than I do with the previous three buffoons. Intel's future execution relies on Gelsinger and if the board and investors can take a minute to shut up and take their heads out from their butts they'd let him do his work instead of trying to replace him to make a quick buck. when you let the numbers people run your company your long term outlook suffers. everything hinges on intel getting their next 3 nodes done correctly, their new tech stack such as bspd and gaa working right at scale, but most importantly not suffering volume issues. though with amd being supply constrained due to being reliant on tsmc intel could suffer some volume issues and still get it done.

I may poo on Intel often and be called and AMD shill by randoms like that Harry lad but I will always have unwavering support from Gelsinger. AMD have made their own greedy moves the last two years and they need to amends for those.